Marcus Aurelius's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/206423/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176815-ethanol-amongst-america-s-most-misguided-public-policies?source=feed#comment-814012 814012 Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:43:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176815-ethanol-amongst-america-s-most-misguided-public-policies?source=feed#comment-814011 814011
I pay for fuel to get me, my family, and my gear from point A to point B, not for other considerations. I do believe ethanol has a place in the overall energy picture but what we have now is welfanol.]]> Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:41:38 -0500
I pay for fuel to get me, my family, and my gear from point A to point B, not for other considerations. I do believe ethanol has a place in the overall energy picture but what we have now is welfanol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178404-what-motivates-fox-s-glenn-beck-on-gold-and-healthcare?source=feed#comment-814001 814001
I always would have liked to ask Jay why he thought the dollar was in deep doo-doo and we should buy gold, but he moved out of Green Bay a long time ago and unfortunately just passed away.]]> Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:56:08 -0500
I always would have liked to ask Jay why he thought the dollar was in deep doo-doo and we should buy gold, but he moved out of Green Bay a long time ago and unfortunately just passed away.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175496-is-dubai-s-default-a-black-swan-event?source=feed#comment-779623 779623 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 11:03:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173673-silver-upholstery-the-newest-source-of-demand?source=feed#comment-763951 763951
I have to work on the assumption the marketplace has that already factored into the silver price.

As is noted in the article only trace amounts of silver are required to reap the anti-microbial benefits -- so while the amount of products requiring silver is large the amounts are small (However, these are truly destructive -- can you imagine putting your dirty & holey socks into a recycle bin?). I am guessing requirements for energy technologies will consume a lot more silver -- but of course those products may prove more easily recyclable.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:54:16 -0500
I have to work on the assumption the marketplace has that already factored into the silver price.

As is noted in the article only trace amounts of silver are required to reap the anti-microbial benefits -- so while the amount of products requiring silver is large the amounts are small (However, these are truly destructive -- can you imagine putting your dirty & holey socks into a recycle bin?). I am guessing requirements for energy technologies will consume a lot more silver -- but of course those products may prove more easily recyclable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171178-eight-restaurants-with-the-right-recipe-for-lean-times?source=feed#comment-758795 758795
OG's menu is a bit limited -- they used to have one of my favorite Italian staples and shortly after I started frequenting the place it came off of the menu. However, the portabella stuffed ravioli is a great dish and usually what I order. Where I used to visit regularly they were usually pretty busy at dinner time, but the bar was usually open so I would sit at the bar order a couple of ginnentonics and have two three glasses of wine.

Famous Daves is a place my wife and I visit on a regular (but infrequent) basis -- mostly when the weather is warm. I've seen analysts complain the menu is static but I say, SO? I don't go there to explore new foods I go there for RIBS (which is the only thing I've ordered from all of my visits).

I have played DAVE in the past I bought at $4 and sold about two - three months later at $6. I played with it in a sandbox once -- shorting it and made out well on that (except for the fact it was a sandbox play).

Of late, $6.00 on DAVE seems to be the base and far deviations from $6.00/share need to be cause for further investigation.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:39:03 -0500
OG's menu is a bit limited -- they used to have one of my favorite Italian staples and shortly after I started frequenting the place it came off of the menu. However, the portabella stuffed ravioli is a great dish and usually what I order. Where I used to visit regularly they were usually pretty busy at dinner time, but the bar was usually open so I would sit at the bar order a couple of ginnentonics and have two three glasses of wine.

Famous Daves is a place my wife and I visit on a regular (but infrequent) basis -- mostly when the weather is warm. I've seen analysts complain the menu is static but I say, SO? I don't go there to explore new foods I go there for RIBS (which is the only thing I've ordered from all of my visits).

I have played DAVE in the past I bought at $4 and sold about two - three months later at $6. I played with it in a sandbox once -- shorting it and made out well on that (except for the fact it was a sandbox play).

Of late, $6.00 on DAVE seems to be the base and far deviations from $6.00/share need to be cause for further investigation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172864-the-decline-of-credit-cards?source=feed#comment-758161 758161
More often than not, according to this host, people would then re-run the cards up.

His typical advice was to cut them up or put them in a bag of water and store in the freezer and pay them off with the paycheck or checks.

Now, the later approach is the only one open to people.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:57:05 -0500
More often than not, according to this host, people would then re-run the cards up.

His typical advice was to cut them up or put them in a bag of water and store in the freezer and pay them off with the paycheck or checks.

Now, the later approach is the only one open to people.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173018-the-importance-of-economic-discipline?source=feed#comment-757733 757733
Most discussions of inflation center on the destruction of stored wealth and its effects on those trying to save. Most such articles proceed to discuss activity centered on protecting one's existing wealth against the ravages of inflation. Not too long ago I saw someone discussing one of the major stock indices how it was doing real good in absolute terms -- but vs. against another measure (IIRC gold price in any event I took it as a measure of real value instead of dollar value) that index did not look so hot anymore.

A buddy of mine frequently rages against speculative financiers. I keep hearing him talk about a fellow who performed a massive shorting operation and won big time. My buddy then complains about how the money was "non-productive" and should be taxed at a higher rate. I don't view such exercises as completely without merit -- there is a very important message others need to heed in such transactions. More importantly as John points out, inflationary policies serve to motivate such operations.

I've never really understood the reason why governments absolutely hate deflation of any sort. The reason is becoming more and more clear.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:53:57 -0500
Most discussions of inflation center on the destruction of stored wealth and its effects on those trying to save. Most such articles proceed to discuss activity centered on protecting one's existing wealth against the ravages of inflation. Not too long ago I saw someone discussing one of the major stock indices how it was doing real good in absolute terms -- but vs. against another measure (IIRC gold price in any event I took it as a measure of real value instead of dollar value) that index did not look so hot anymore.

A buddy of mine frequently rages against speculative financiers. I keep hearing him talk about a fellow who performed a massive shorting operation and won big time. My buddy then complains about how the money was "non-productive" and should be taxed at a higher rate. I don't view such exercises as completely without merit -- there is a very important message others need to heed in such transactions. More importantly as John points out, inflationary policies serve to motivate such operations.

I've never really understood the reason why governments absolutely hate deflation of any sort. The reason is becoming more and more clear.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171610-crisis-in-context-this-time-is-different-eight-centuries-of-financial-folly-by-carmen-m-reinhart-and-kenneth-s-rogoff?source=feed#comment-753425 753425
"Every time is different to the present observer because he or she has no historical perspective." The problem with this observation is a lot of the people who say "this time its different" are typically old enough to know better.

ValueInvestor,

Who again coined the phrase "irrational exuberance"? I remember hearing people scream in response: "This time its different". Maybe the timing on irrational exuberance was off but it was essentially correct.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:37:56 -0500
"Every time is different to the present observer because he or she has no historical perspective." The problem with this observation is a lot of the people who say "this time its different" are typically old enough to know better.

ValueInvestor,

Who again coined the phrase "irrational exuberance"? I remember hearing people scream in response: "This time its different". Maybe the timing on irrational exuberance was off but it was essentially correct.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172164-silver-misbehaves-in-recent-rally-time-to-buy?source=feed#comment-753419 753419
I was up north at the cottage of a buddy's father. He took me outside and removed the cap of one of the metal tubes of the firewood racks -- full of quarters. Intriguing but one has to wish he hadn't done that if my buddy's Dad is robbed I am immediately a suspect.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:22:17 -0500
I was up north at the cottage of a buddy's father. He took me outside and removed the cap of one of the metal tubes of the firewood racks -- full of quarters. Intriguing but one has to wish he hadn't done that if my buddy's Dad is robbed I am immediately a suspect.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172164-silver-misbehaves-in-recent-rally-time-to-buy?source=feed#comment-753407 753407
He was kinda pushing me into the silver content coins (as opposed to collector coins) but I'm more comfortable buying bullion.

My motives are mostly to guard against inflation and in my belief that the industrial use of silver (even though it is considered to be "dirty") is a huge and underestimated destructive consumer of silver.

As far as storage, of course, thievery is a risk but I plan to keep pretty much absolutely mum about it (sharing the info with wife, parents, brother, and perhaps an attorney) put it in a safe that is fire proof as well as thieve proof. In addition, I have some other ideas about storage.

Once I started to pile up significant amounts I'ld probably convert the silver from smaller pieces into larger ones and then into gold. Even though I am "buying" the current conventional wisdom that silver is more significantly undervalued gold is a more concentrated store of wealth.

LOL when young and playing D&D our characters always got lots of "gold pieces" to start off with -- even though the Player's Manual or the Dungeon Master's guide stressed that it was far more likely beginning adventurers would probably have mostly copper pieces and maybe a silver piece or two. Well, it was "fantasy" role playing, right?

I've never felt the notion that silver is a "dirty" metal and have always considered it a (not so) precious (as gold) metal. When I was in the Middle East they were mostly about gold but I've seen a lot of silver over there too.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:53:44 -0500
He was kinda pushing me into the silver content coins (as opposed to collector coins) but I'm more comfortable buying bullion.

My motives are mostly to guard against inflation and in my belief that the industrial use of silver (even though it is considered to be "dirty") is a huge and underestimated destructive consumer of silver.

As far as storage, of course, thievery is a risk but I plan to keep pretty much absolutely mum about it (sharing the info with wife, parents, brother, and perhaps an attorney) put it in a safe that is fire proof as well as thieve proof. In addition, I have some other ideas about storage.

Once I started to pile up significant amounts I'ld probably convert the silver from smaller pieces into larger ones and then into gold. Even though I am "buying" the current conventional wisdom that silver is more significantly undervalued gold is a more concentrated store of wealth.

LOL when young and playing D&D our characters always got lots of "gold pieces" to start off with -- even though the Player's Manual or the Dungeon Master's guide stressed that it was far more likely beginning adventurers would probably have mostly copper pieces and maybe a silver piece or two. Well, it was "fantasy" role playing, right?

I've never felt the notion that silver is a "dirty" metal and have always considered it a (not so) precious (as gold) metal. When I was in the Middle East they were mostly about gold but I've seen a lot of silver over there too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150447-liar-loan-securitizations-a-surprising-twist?source=feed#comment-599019 599019
The real estate bubble burst and now there is a lot of real estate on the market where banks and owners are underwater. Now, a bank can not get away with making bad loans and are twice shy.

What I find stunning is the notion that a number of loans did not make it past their first payment until they went into delinquency.]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 04:04:35 -0400
The real estate bubble burst and now there is a lot of real estate on the market where banks and owners are underwater. Now, a bank can not get away with making bad loans and are twice shy.

What I find stunning is the notion that a number of loans did not make it past their first payment until they went into delinquency.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-417285 417285
The stock market is a ponzi scheme like insurance is gambling.

LilBob,

We'll just disagree on that then. I agree the fundamentals of our economy look bad at the moment, for some reason they always seem horrible even in good times. Admittedly, my views are based more on technical/contrary sentiments. As I said I heard a lot of people calling $5.00/gallon gas last summer and the scoffing at the $30 CL call was legion and wrong.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:11:29 -0500
The stock market is a ponzi scheme like insurance is gambling.

LilBob,

We'll just disagree on that then. I agree the fundamentals of our economy look bad at the moment, for some reason they always seem horrible even in good times. Admittedly, my views are based more on technical/contrary sentiments. As I said I heard a lot of people calling $5.00/gallon gas last summer and the scoffing at the $30 CL call was legion and wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-417279 417279
Most common explanation for Autozone and the like is people are repairing their current cars rather than running out and buying a new one. In addition, probably a number of more people are doing the repairs on their own. Last fall I did some brake jobs on my own requiring me to visit similar stores a number of times.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:06:14 -0500
Most common explanation for Autozone and the like is people are repairing their current cars rather than running out and buying a new one. In addition, probably a number of more people are doing the repairs on their own. Last fall I did some brake jobs on my own requiring me to visit similar stores a number of times.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124387-why-felix-should-walk-away?source=feed#comment-417104 417104
Moral people do not need contracts, contracts are worthless with immoral people, and the vast majority of us in between those two poles need contracts. Note, my point about how contracts are ineffective with immoral people.

The notion to walk from the contract and send the bank a "jingle-letter" is anticipated and may be provisioned in the contract, but it is hardly moral. On the other hand, if we were talking about property that was 100% investment property from the get-go I would be a lot more understanding. That is generally why the principal home mortgages are more favorable to the homeowner than loans for investment properties.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 10:06:31 -0500
Moral people do not need contracts, contracts are worthless with immoral people, and the vast majority of us in between those two poles need contracts. Note, my point about how contracts are ineffective with immoral people.

The notion to walk from the contract and send the bank a "jingle-letter" is anticipated and may be provisioned in the contract, but it is hardly moral. On the other hand, if we were talking about property that was 100% investment property from the get-go I would be a lot more understanding. That is generally why the principal home mortgages are more favorable to the homeowner than loans for investment properties.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416908 416908
I disagree strenuously with your sentiment. I think the coiled spring analogy is perfectly fine. Also, you leave out the rest of 320's comment which is bullish and meshes with my outlook.

I put it all out again. If last August I would have called for $40/barrel oil, what would you have said? I have seen these oscillations before and I fully expect to seem them again. I am quite willing to entertain the notion the tension was built into the system at 14,000 rather than it being wound up now, which is something I am starting to become convinced is the case.

Price & value discovery is not an exact science nor are the parties in the deals on the same timelines.

@Jeez, nor is there any law saying it must stay out. I have seen money flow in and out of equities from a fairly close perspective a number of times in my life. I see no reason why this time should be any different unless someone ;-( takes a wrecking ball to our nation's economy, which I admit is starting to seem a reasonable fear.

So much of this seems a redux of Jason Scharz's $30 CL call last summer/fall.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:25:12 -0500
I disagree strenuously with your sentiment. I think the coiled spring analogy is perfectly fine. Also, you leave out the rest of 320's comment which is bullish and meshes with my outlook.

I put it all out again. If last August I would have called for $40/barrel oil, what would you have said? I have seen these oscillations before and I fully expect to seem them again. I am quite willing to entertain the notion the tension was built into the system at 14,000 rather than it being wound up now, which is something I am starting to become convinced is the case.

Price & value discovery is not an exact science nor are the parties in the deals on the same timelines.

@Jeez, nor is there any law saying it must stay out. I have seen money flow in and out of equities from a fairly close perspective a number of times in my life. I see no reason why this time should be any different unless someone ;-( takes a wrecking ball to our nation's economy, which I admit is starting to seem a reasonable fear.

So much of this seems a redux of Jason Scharz's $30 CL call last summer/fall.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416864 416864
Your thought just occurred to me the moment before seeing your post. It is quite possible the initial tension could have been upside tension in the American economy as a whole and not just a sector. Still, it is always a temptation to believe the top of the last bull run is the proper place for the market. In any event I think the market has overshot and overshot by quite a bit its proper value.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:52:20 -0500
Your thought just occurred to me the moment before seeing your post. It is quite possible the initial tension could have been upside tension in the American economy as a whole and not just a sector. Still, it is always a temptation to believe the top of the last bull run is the proper place for the market. In any event I think the market has overshot and overshot by quite a bit its proper value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416854 416854
The prevailing sentiment is bearish and not for a snapback. As the rejoinder to my note on that states is to keep it quiet so the masses don't catch on. Last summer I paid close attention to commodities especially CL and other energy commodities and the sentiment on that. Even as the prices started retreating from the top, very few expected it would whiplash as severely as it did, economic downturn or not.

Maybe a few of us here are looking for such a thing but out in the general population there is very grim outlook. I have been through this before with my 401K watching it do down-down-down and then finally getting sick of seeing that... So I stop watching closely, I come back sometime later and what do I say? Holy $#!+ where did all of that $ come from?

Back in August if I told you oil would be trading for $45/barrel in the sprintime, what would you have said to me? I bet it would be something along the lines of "give some of your smoke!".

LordDarley,

Yours is about the only cogent reason put out there to explain for a slow return to 14,000istan or a longer time to 15,000istan than what many think. Even if the death tax is not repealed that wealth will eventually return into play, when those people pass on. The money will not suddenly disappear into the ether, will it? I guess that last conjecture depends on how bad the imminent inflation is.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:35:05 -0500
The prevailing sentiment is bearish and not for a snapback. As the rejoinder to my note on that states is to keep it quiet so the masses don't catch on. Last summer I paid close attention to commodities especially CL and other energy commodities and the sentiment on that. Even as the prices started retreating from the top, very few expected it would whiplash as severely as it did, economic downturn or not.

Maybe a few of us here are looking for such a thing but out in the general population there is very grim outlook. I have been through this before with my 401K watching it do down-down-down and then finally getting sick of seeing that... So I stop watching closely, I come back sometime later and what do I say? Holy $#!+ where did all of that $ come from?

Back in August if I told you oil would be trading for $45/barrel in the sprintime, what would you have said to me? I bet it would be something along the lines of "give some of your smoke!".

LordDarley,

Yours is about the only cogent reason put out there to explain for a slow return to 14,000istan or a longer time to 15,000istan than what many think. Even if the death tax is not repealed that wealth will eventually return into play, when those people pass on. The money will not suddenly disappear into the ether, will it? I guess that last conjecture depends on how bad the imminent inflation is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124581-as-unemployment-grows-tech-jobs-hang-on?source=feed#comment-416799 416799
I think we can trace the roots of this back to many administrations and many Fed Chairs. I am no fan of President Obama (w/o trying to sound like a seminar caller I do want to establish my bonafides here) the last Dem I voted for was Dukaka (young FM station listening college student that I was back then - WFB shortly after that influenced me in a TV ad campaign to come back home).

Still, administration after administration kept pumping the housing market bubble and W's kept it right up. This situation isn't entirely W's fault nor is it wholey off of himself either.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:44:13 -0500
I think we can trace the roots of this back to many administrations and many Fed Chairs. I am no fan of President Obama (w/o trying to sound like a seminar caller I do want to establish my bonafides here) the last Dem I voted for was Dukaka (young FM station listening college student that I was back then - WFB shortly after that influenced me in a TV ad campaign to come back home).

Still, administration after administration kept pumping the housing market bubble and W's kept it right up. This situation isn't entirely W's fault nor is it wholey off of himself either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416784 416784
Hehehehehe,

Lordy, I got PO'ed at first at your comment but I kept reading.

I went into the market about one month ago (well, again I am in but I am hoping for a miracle on that one, it registers a 33.3% gain and still reads: $0.00 on my board) and currently am down 1/3 on that purchase. I am thinking about scooping up another block of that stock despite somewhat dire personal circumstances.

Watching the reaction to Jason Schwarz's $30 CL call was an interesting lesson in contrariarnism.

@BeninEden,

So correct! Too many people view money like Thurston Howell III the old caricature capitalist. Hydrocarbons & energy are the limitation and remember, nations used to war over islands of bird dung until the petro-economy came spurting out of the earth.

I always picture that island dude taking the wad of cash, pulling the rubber band, tossing the cash and going nuts over finding the rubber band.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:26:52 -0500
Hehehehehe,

Lordy, I got PO'ed at first at your comment but I kept reading.

I went into the market about one month ago (well, again I am in but I am hoping for a miracle on that one, it registers a 33.3% gain and still reads: $0.00 on my board) and currently am down 1/3 on that purchase. I am thinking about scooping up another block of that stock despite somewhat dire personal circumstances.

Watching the reaction to Jason Schwarz's $30 CL call was an interesting lesson in contrariarnism.

@BeninEden,

So correct! Too many people view money like Thurston Howell III the old caricature capitalist. Hydrocarbons & energy are the limitation and remember, nations used to war over islands of bird dung until the petro-economy came spurting out of the earth.

I always picture that island dude taking the wad of cash, pulling the rubber band, tossing the cash and going nuts over finding the rubber band.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124387-why-felix-should-walk-away?source=feed#comment-416631 416631
My wife and I started the construction of our house in October of 2007. I don't know how many times I had the subs and my buddy (who was the real genius behind this project - same guy I talk about who looking at those junk houses) tell me I missed 25% or similar increases in product pricing. However, some of that was made up by having to heat an uninsulated & unsided building in a Wisconsin January.

I was speculating whether or not I should have held off till now to build given the rates, commodities, and labor costs. Our general consensus was that financing the project would have been a lot harder.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:47:41 -0500
My wife and I started the construction of our house in October of 2007. I don't know how many times I had the subs and my buddy (who was the real genius behind this project - same guy I talk about who looking at those junk houses) tell me I missed 25% or similar increases in product pricing. However, some of that was made up by having to heat an uninsulated & unsided building in a Wisconsin January.

I was speculating whether or not I should have held off till now to build given the rates, commodities, and labor costs. Our general consensus was that financing the project would have been a lot harder.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416585 416585
Think oil. Last summer the CL spring got wound real tight on the plus side, it let loose and look where is it at now? One guy last fall was calling for $30 oil and the prevailing comment theme was "what are you smoking". $30 was too low, but it wasn't that far off.

One thing I do agree with though is demographics may put a lid on any equity recovery. Even when the public is back in the mood for equities most likely a fair amount of that public will not return because they need income and not growth. Interestingly enough, that same demographic trend will relieve the pressure on rising medical costs.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:07:47 -0500
Think oil. Last summer the CL spring got wound real tight on the plus side, it let loose and look where is it at now? One guy last fall was calling for $30 oil and the prevailing comment theme was "what are you smoking". $30 was too low, but it wasn't that far off.

One thing I do agree with though is demographics may put a lid on any equity recovery. Even when the public is back in the mood for equities most likely a fair amount of that public will not return because they need income and not growth. Interestingly enough, that same demographic trend will relieve the pressure on rising medical costs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124581-as-unemployment-grows-tech-jobs-hang-on?source=feed#comment-416113 416113
I am a tech worker with 16 years of pro experience 10 in the tech industry (prior six was in education where I taught math & computer applications). I got "whacked" a month ago, my consulting firm was/is heavily dependent on the Big 3 (even though I am in a different region from Detroit). My last assignment ended the last work day of October '08. At that time 300 people from my firm were let go and I got let go with about 249 others. I saw it coming and started paying serious attention to the job boards (and working them a lot harder).

What I found surprising is there is a fair amount of direct hiring going on in my area and for jobs I know I can do. In the previous big whacking occurring in my company this was not the case the job boards were pretty dry (but since I was billing I did not get whacked and did not pay as close attention as I am now).

I am getting a fairly positive response at least from direct hire firms. I have had multiple phone interviews and two face to faces so far. One is a nutty job (the CFO cut his colleagues down big time and bragged himself up like you wouldn't believe, I am still looking at the position) and another was three hours with 3 different people, unfortunately they are no longer considering myself (IMO an ideal job I would serve as the dept manager's right hand man & work to bring IT best practices to the department).

I think a number of the consulting firms I see out there are just resume harvesting. Around here, companies are showing their contractors the door.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:27:47 -0500
I am a tech worker with 16 years of pro experience 10 in the tech industry (prior six was in education where I taught math & computer applications). I got "whacked" a month ago, my consulting firm was/is heavily dependent on the Big 3 (even though I am in a different region from Detroit). My last assignment ended the last work day of October '08. At that time 300 people from my firm were let go and I got let go with about 249 others. I saw it coming and started paying serious attention to the job boards (and working them a lot harder).

What I found surprising is there is a fair amount of direct hiring going on in my area and for jobs I know I can do. In the previous big whacking occurring in my company this was not the case the job boards were pretty dry (but since I was billing I did not get whacked and did not pay as close attention as I am now).

I am getting a fairly positive response at least from direct hire firms. I have had multiple phone interviews and two face to faces so far. One is a nutty job (the CFO cut his colleagues down big time and bragged himself up like you wouldn't believe, I am still looking at the position) and another was three hours with 3 different people, unfortunately they are no longer considering myself (IMO an ideal job I would serve as the dept manager's right hand man & work to bring IT best practices to the department).

I think a number of the consulting firms I see out there are just resume harvesting. Around here, companies are showing their contractors the door.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=feed#comment-415918 415918 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 10:44:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124387-why-felix-should-walk-away?source=feed#comment-415293 415293
An actual believer in supply & demand on a finance site, I thought they were extinct here.

Here in our housing market we had a number of builders building absolute $#!+ homes. A buddy of mine was talking about a few homes he was looking at and talked about how shoddily they were built, basically he said most of the homes were only good for the lot they sat on, and those are brand new constructions.

Those builders are long gone from our area. However, builders on the other end of the spectrum are also in dire straits. One builder who specialized in top dollar homes (building for Packer players & the like, my recollection is he built Brett Favre's Green Bay house and others), is now sitting around twiddling his thumbs.

My brother who works for a guy that builds average homes is now spending most of his time on commercial jobs (to be fair, residential construction season probably does not kick off for about one month from now).

The junk bottom-feeder builders are dead, the easy money is gone.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:13:39 -0500
An actual believer in supply & demand on a finance site, I thought they were extinct here.

Here in our housing market we had a number of builders building absolute $#!+ homes. A buddy of mine was talking about a few homes he was looking at and talked about how shoddily they were built, basically he said most of the homes were only good for the lot they sat on, and those are brand new constructions.

Those builders are long gone from our area. However, builders on the other end of the spectrum are also in dire straits. One builder who specialized in top dollar homes (building for Packer players & the like, my recollection is he built Brett Favre's Green Bay house and others), is now sitting around twiddling his thumbs.

My brother who works for a guy that builds average homes is now spending most of his time on commercial jobs (to be fair, residential construction season probably does not kick off for about one month from now).

The junk bottom-feeder builders are dead, the easy money is gone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124387-why-felix-should-walk-away?source=feed#comment-415268 415268
Felix, you say the house was your dream house, correct? You are certainly not getting any of your money back if you walk out on it. Stay in the beautiful house, entertain your guests, live out the dream. I have a nice house too, our guests wow with the view when they first enter it (however, I doubt it approaches your view). I love it and am fighting to keep it.

You know the old saying, "make hay when the sun shines", well the sun shone for way too long and everyone in the housing industry from builders, to financiers, to speculators were out in the fields making hay. Sooner or later you gotta leave the hay alone to get stores up for the winter (or if you are an apiarist you gotta let the bees keep enough honey to overwinter). Unfortunately, people kept making hay and eventually the we killed the hay field.

Everyone kept doubling down and pushing it. Anytime inflation started to rear its head and the Fed would start to focus on inflation how many pundits would we hear scream bloody murder about that? Well, we are paying for pumping the bubble.

Its like the party in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, it kept going and going and going, but when it ended it ended in a very bad way.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 22:51:23 -0500
Felix, you say the house was your dream house, correct? You are certainly not getting any of your money back if you walk out on it. Stay in the beautiful house, entertain your guests, live out the dream. I have a nice house too, our guests wow with the view when they first enter it (however, I doubt it approaches your view). I love it and am fighting to keep it.

You know the old saying, "make hay when the sun shines", well the sun shone for way too long and everyone in the housing industry from builders, to financiers, to speculators were out in the fields making hay. Sooner or later you gotta leave the hay alone to get stores up for the winter (or if you are an apiarist you gotta let the bees keep enough honey to overwinter). Unfortunately, people kept making hay and eventually the we killed the hay field.

Everyone kept doubling down and pushing it. Anytime inflation started to rear its head and the Fed would start to focus on inflation how many pundits would we hear scream bloody murder about that? Well, we are paying for pumping the bubble.

Its like the party in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, it kept going and going and going, but when it ended it ended in a very bad way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124387-why-felix-should-walk-away?source=feed#comment-415160 415160
If you can keep paying the mortgage continue to do so and live in your house. Otherwise I think you should change your name to Niki Santoro.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:42:17 -0500
If you can keep paying the mortgage continue to do so and live in your house. Otherwise I think you should change your name to Niki Santoro.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122894-the-unintended-consequences-of-levying-a-25-stock-transaction-tax?source=feed#comment-405182 405182
Most people it seems take the Nikki Santoro approach to investing. They make money they don't care keep it coming! They lose money, the look to muscle someone. Even if that muscle is government muscle its still muscle. In this case they strong arm the govt, the govt then slaps the investment houses & the like, and then the investment houses just pass it right back to their customers.]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 19:51:26 -0500
Most people it seems take the Nikki Santoro approach to investing. They make money they don't care keep it coming! They lose money, the look to muscle someone. Even if that muscle is government muscle its still muscle. In this case they strong arm the govt, the govt then slaps the investment houses & the like, and then the investment houses just pass it right back to their customers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122894-the-unintended-consequences-of-levying-a-25-stock-transaction-tax?source=feed#comment-404847 404847
Just because you think the bill has slim chance of becoming law doesn't mean we should ignore it. One reason bad bills don't become law is because people speak out against them.]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:40:43 -0500
Just because you think the bill has slim chance of becoming law doesn't mean we should ignore it. One reason bad bills don't become law is because people speak out against them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111594-opec-too-little-too-late?source=feed#comment-334055 334055
I believe the oil rally of summer '08 was a tech/speculative rally. The situation was like a spring with a lot of tension, when it lets go it recoils and does not stop until it is way past its natural point of equilibrium.

Where are we in relation to the equilibrium point? Well US oil stocks are high in relation to the five year average and dropped only by a little bit in the last week or so and we have Thunder Horse ramping up to be in full production within two years. However, we do have the economic downturn going on. My wife's nephew is a sailor and tells us six of his company's ships are docked - not enough material coming from China to the US.

Right now we are still above equilibrium, but when economies starting recovering watch out.]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:27:05 -0500
I believe the oil rally of summer '08 was a tech/speculative rally. The situation was like a spring with a lot of tension, when it lets go it recoils and does not stop until it is way past its natural point of equilibrium.

Where are we in relation to the equilibrium point? Well US oil stocks are high in relation to the five year average and dropped only by a little bit in the last week or so and we have Thunder Horse ramping up to be in full production within two years. However, we do have the economic downturn going on. My wife's nephew is a sailor and tells us six of his company's ships are docked - not enough material coming from China to the US.

Right now we are still above equilibrium, but when economies starting recovering watch out.]]>