axelrod608

Deploying Cash for a Slight Upward Market Bias

Indeed, mixed signals abound, and whatever conclusions one reaches one day must be reconsidered the next day in this market.

One difference when using OOM - one's own money - rather than OPM - other people;s money - is that losses are personal. Looking at how far the market has come and how fast, there IS a correction coming. So I am at about 95% cash now. I know I may be missing out on the last bit of gain, but I can afford that more than an(other) substantial loss.

I don't know when the correction is coming ( best guess 3rd week of September) or how big it will be, but I plan on having plenty of cash ready to jump back in when nobody else wants to.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

..."Can anybody explain why banks such as UBS are allowed to do business in the United States"...

Ownership. A foreign corporation can own a subsidiary in any country which operates by the laws of that country, not of the foreign country. The IRS is using its bully power to make corporations in other countries follow US law.

It is time to scrap the income tax and go to 100% sales tax funding of our government. Being able to bank anywhere in the world would be just one of dozens of advantages. Another HUGE advatange would be the IRS being made superflous. We maintain the tax collecting machinery of government at HUGE expense to everyone - individuals, and businesses.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

C4C makes sense if a 12 mpg gas guzzler is traded in for a 30+mpg vehicle. But that's not what's happening in the real world. Here in Florida most of the new vehicles being sold are pickups, vans and SUV's that get half the mandated mpg of the next federal CAFE. C4C only requires a 2mpg improvement to qualify - what a joke. Another bad joke out of Washington, DC.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The reports that GDP is growing based on "stimulus" money being dumped into economies is misleading, at best. Reminds me of the "personal income growth" reported by adding refi proceeds to national income figures and "GDP growth" adding the same to GDP. If you backed the refi proceeds out of the GDP numbers, we had negative GDP "growth" most of the 2000 - 2007 period. It's smoke and mirrors accounting.

Anyone who thinks you "grow" anything other than debt load by borrowing money or spending money you don't have just doesn't understand the basic underlying principles of economics or accounting.

Global Markets Weekly Trading Preview: Rally, Hold or Pull Back?

Re the dollar's resurgence, I've heard several pundits that I trust make the argument that all major currencies are bad and the dollar is the "least worst" of the lot. The Euro is seriously under fire due to losses in the eastern bloc, and the Yen is the currency of a nation that hasn't recovered in two decades. And China is inflating a bubble so big you'd think Alan Greenspin was in charge.

As long as the dollar is still regarded as the world's reserve, it should hold up well despite the fiscal irresponsibility of former and current policymakers.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The failure of three more banks is just one more snapshot of the effect of public policy, namely the federal policy of backing consolidation. The customers will now be serviced by a bigger bank which will benefit in two ways - it will grow in a no growth environment and it will buy assets at fire sale prices.

Unfortunately, this has long term repercussions. Megabanks operate at levels of efficiency that minimize employees per unit of business. Small businesses are the only major job growth drivers. Consolidation results in permanent loss of jobs.

With tax receipts falling, one wonders how the folks pushing for raising the national debt limit think we're going to repay it, or even afford the interest on it. I suspect none of them has ever worked in any capacity where they saw the signs of the impending problems at the threshold of debt service limits. Do they really think they can enforce ZIRP forever ? The thought for today is, "What does the interest on the national debt look like at 10% interest ?" Our policymakers are playing a very dangerous game of chicken.

Profiting from Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report

I'm always amused when people label facts and real information as "gloom and doom". The truth is, the numbers don't look so good.

As for "missing out" on the rally, most of the "bears" I know made good money this year-to-date. The key for the year end numbers will be who took their profits when they could. I'm up 20+% and am at over 90% cash - profits locked in.

Those who ignore history will, once again, get taught an expensive lesson. Even in the midst of the "great depression" there were some awesome rallies. The wise made money in the great depression. Regardless of what the economy or the markets are doing, the ultimate lesson still applies - buy low, sell high. And it only works if you can recognize where high and low are. The numbers tell us that, only if we pay attention. Regardless of market sentiment, the numbers are screaming "SELL" . Yes, I may have missed out on the last part of this rally. But I have plenty of cash to get in on the next one. Will you ?

'Too Big to Fail' Cause of Current Community Bank Failures

The stock market is not the economy, nor vice versa. there were huge stock market rallies during the "Great" depression.

"Too big to fail" is just the pitch line for selling the public policy of consolidation. Small bank failures provide bigger banks with two benefits - growth (in a time of no growth) and the opportunity to pick up assets at fire-sale prices. The national policy is to promote more bigger banks and fewer small banks.

If we were discussing employment, we would look at job losses versus job creation. Do the same with banks and you will find few - if any - new small banks in recent years while small bank losses are rising. Again, it's just the fruit of public policy designed to favor consolidation of megabanks while impeding opportunities for small banks.

The serious drawback of this public policy is the resultant decrease in employment. Small companies are the drivers of job growth. Megacompanies operate on a scale that minimizes employee numbers. As the Citibanks and the Walmarts and the McDonaldses push their smaller competitors out of existence, middleclass employment is falling.

While this change is good for corporate officers and directors and investors, is is an ongoing disaster for the American middle class.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The Fed's ZIRP - zero interest rate policy - is the driver behind most of our economic problems. Florida's pension plan bought a ton of Lehman preferred with a 10+% yield, rated AAA and ended up eating it. Investors like pension plans that must make gains and individuals who want gains have to move out on the risk continuum to make gains that exceed tax and inflation costs. The Fed policy mandates that anyone who wants to make positive gains has to buy. riskier investments.

There simply aren't any guaranteed investment vehicles that will pay more than taxes and inflation.

Having said that, whoever buys any investment they don't fully understand is at least as liable as the seller. CALPERS should have done their due diligence and known better.

And having said that, the rating agencies need radical transformation. They serve the interests that pay them - the sellers. Never a good policy.

T. Boone Pickens' Epic Wind Fail

Pickens just timed it wrong. His first challenge should have been to get the LNG production and pipeline geared up for national distribution and convinced automakers to ramp up production of LNG burners. That would have alleviated the current glut of NG and made a serious dent in our oil imports.

LNG first, wind second.

Tidal and wave action production third. Most of the population lives near the coasts. Put the production near the users and save $trillions on the distribution net. Duh. And the tides and waves work 24/7/365. Another Duh.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

XOM's big NG find begs the question - in a massive glut of NG oversupply, why isn't LNG for auto fuel a national priority ??

Our "leaders" are too busy clamoring for another "stimulus package" to notice.

Natural Gas ETF: Nowhere to Go but Up, Yet It Keeps Going Down

skrangeo's comments beg the question - WTF are this nation's "leaders" doing by ignoring the situation ?? One would think that LNG for auto fuel - and cars that burn it - would be a national priority. Unfortunately, outside the box thinkers are in short supply at the levels where national policy is made.

This nation has, more than any other problem, a leadership deficit. We throw money at problems while alternative solutions are in plain sight to the astute observer.

Seven Car Companies Pulling Ahead Despite Recession

From above
"My buddy has a Class A MOTORHOME.... that gets close to 20 mpg. So an SUV hybid that gets 20mpg is a JOKE !!!

Seven Car Companies Pulling Ahead Despite Recession

>> "The auto industry's depression started..." " Happened right after Clinton ..." Sorry, Theresa, it started generations before your frame of reference. My father quit working at Fisher Body ( the old timers will remember GM's 'coach' division) in the 1930's because of inhuman working conditions and labor/management violence.

I grew up in a Chevy town where labor/management feuds were ongoing for decades. The old saying "united we stand, divided we fall" has been the working motto of the US automakers for generations, pushing them toward the cliff.. All it took was for organized, well run companies to start competeing.

US automakers have for decades claimed they couldn't make a competitive small car and kept making motorized livingrooms and motorized family rooms and gigantosaurus trucks. And it worked great while gas was less than $2 a gallon. GM is touting it's new hybrid Caddy Escalade that gets, drum roll please, 20 MILES TO A GALLON !!!! What an accomplishment, right ??? My buddy has a Class A MOTORHOME

The real irony is that all 3 US automakers make competitive small cars in other countries. When you figure it out, let me know. caise I'm clueless why they just don't do it here. Their business plans are just plain bass ackwards.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

>> "G-8 diverge on future stimulus needs. G-8 leaders said the global economic recovery is still too weak to..." >>

This is the politically correct way to phrase this concept, "the recovery is too weak". The accurate phrasing would be there is no recovery, but the rate of economic decline has slowed.

When one in four (perhaps one in three) Americans who used to work full time and want to work full time can't, "recovery" is an incorrect descriptor. The stats don't include the millions of workers whose work week has been shortened and paycheck reduced but their status remains unchanged.

Yes, some corporations are making money, but they've done it by slashing employment and other costs and balance sheet maneuvers. So while there may be a "recovery" in some stock prices, there is no recovery in the overall economy.

In a consumer driven economy, "Jobless recovery" is an oxymoron.