Dame Daxx

Boone Pickens' Holdings

CHK has doubled since Friday.

Boone has stumbled on oil all year. When it first hit $100 (going up) he shorted, losing a lot. Then he switched to being long, only to get hit again when it came down.

The markets, all markets, this year have just been a Casino. I like this quote from the FT yesterday:

"So many trading models have failed catastrophically over the past months that the survivors can wonder if anything other than randomly distributed luck can be relied on."

Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

From the oil analysts I read, there seem to be two arguments: 1) Oil will not fall much below $120, or 2) Oil will fall to $85. So I would short it at about the $115 level. Abby Cohen said last week they consider the fair value for oil to be $130-$135.

I got demolished on my energy stocks in the past 2 weeks (especially CHK), so most of them are closed. However, I do believe that it will be Energy & Materials that leads the next bull market. The alternatives just seem to have too much going against them.