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Retired Bureaucrat

Retired Bureaucrat
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  • ZS Pharma: An Undervalued Small Cap Play [View article]
    The advantage of being first is nothing to be sneezed at. What is the range and expected value of the lag time for ZSPH compared to Relypsa for approval and marketing? If I were Relypsa, I would want to hit the ground running and build sales as fast as I can.
    Sep 20, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Price Decline Creates An Attractive Entry Point For Halozyme [View article]
    Oops, my mistake. however, the pancreatic cancer trials will be the bigger driver. have a large long position already.
    Sep 17, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Price Decline Creates An Attractive Entry Point For Halozyme [View article]
    The recommendation to approve the drug was not overwhelming, and perhaps that is why the stock tanked, rather than sell on the news.
    Sep 16, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZCORP misses by $0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
    The turn around seems to be real, in spite of the narrow miss. With the deadwood gone, the prospects of meeting the next quarter projections look good. At a forward P/E of 6 times earnings, the stock is fairly priced. I will hold on to my long position.
    Jul 29, 2014. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter owes 70x last year's earnings but shares gain 135% Y/Y [View news story]
    First of all Issac needs to be congratulated. He is the first analyst to demonstrate that he reads annual reports. I say this even though he did not go far enough in his probing of Green Hunter and its near bankruptcy in biofuels, and the litigation surrounding it, before Gary gave it a second wind by using them to provide water for MHR.

    However, rather than bandy about numbers, such as growth in reserves per share or losses per share--one needs to understand the context and the game Gary is playing.
    His game is to leverage as much as possible, grab acreage and drill on it, hopefully find reserves and convert the proven reserves to increases in valuation of the acreage and to sell the acreage or grow further. In a model such as that one, he is taking undue risks for the common shareholders, and siphoning a modest bit for himself. No harm in that is it?

    Some of the key facts one needs to understand are:

    A BOE is a dumb metric when the $ price of nat gas is 1/5 or 1/4 of oil on a per BTU basis, and condensate is much cheaper than crude. You need to recalculate his reserves in terms of dollar value.

    how is he measuring the value of his assets? is PV-10 appropriate if he is borrowing at 12.5% from Pennantpark and paying 10.25% on cumulative preferred shares? His acreage that he just bought at $4K or 5K per acre should not double in value until he proves it by further successful drilling--he is bright and I am cautiously optimistic.
    He has sold a lot of warrants at $8.5 strike price providing some resistance above $8.5

    His EBITDA is 1.5 times interest payments. A bit risky if gas prices drop, fracking has restrictions due to earthquake scares, or he hits bad wells.

    One metric to consider is: has the value of assets per share less debt, including preferred shares, been going up and what kind of multiple it deserves.

    Nevertheless, Issac has made a good start and is way ahead of any other in his profession.
    Jun 29, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Sitting In The Liquefaction Catbird Seat [View article]
    For high taxable accounts: Why own KMP when you can own KMR?
    Jun 21, 2014. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Superior Dividend Yield And Insider Transactions Make This BDC A Strong Buy [View article]
    From a risk reward point of view, lower cost of capital, from a bad debt loss ratio, and for a more seasoned management with the interests of shareholders at heart, ARCC beats PSEC hands down.
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack Pharmaceuticals: Setting The Record Straight On MM 398 [View article]
    lipid encapsulation works only for small molecules. BIND has novel drug delivery technology withAccurins. albumin can also be used to target drug delivery to tumor. All this is exciting.
    I am very very long MACK and BIND
    May 21, 2014. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack Pharmaceuticals: Setting The Record Straight On MM 398 [View article]
    I am long MACK and bullish about it. However, they could have done the MM121 trials better as an adaptive trial, thereby being able to use the data in an expanded trial that was conditioned on the marker.

    I look upon MM-398 as a drug delivery technology that can be applicable to other cancer/drug combinations. Its success is impressive and demonstrates that MACK scientists are first rate.
    May 16, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risk Trilogy [View article]
    A very nice erudite article. A nice read, mentioning three major issues impacting the market.
    As a retired senior trade policy adviser, one observes that exchange rate manipulation to "beggar thy neighbor" is nothing new. It stems from the fact that the IMF and GATT were separate organizations. Gunzo is right. As a response to China's accumulation of massive reserves, printing dollars reminded them that the Chinese need to bring their trade in better balance. Hence, I see China spending more on Defense and projecting its power, spending more on stimulating consumption, and more on industrial R&D, on developing its natural resources and reducing its imports of energy.

    As for the omnipotent FED hypothesis, some of us,such as I, believe that we have an impotent FED. A Fed that has bought into the austerity argument and is trying to get off QE gradually, but is constrained by the fear of a pushing us back in to recession. Fortunately, the FED is beginning to get some help more recently from Abe and now the EU.
    The last point, seems to argue against the small investor, but I have found that a buy and hold strategy works fine with me. I invest only some of my funds in individual stocks--and do so only after doing a lot of research on the firm, its markets, its competitors, its management, its finances and cost of capital, and its investors. The bet is made only when I am confident that there is an Alpha, that my bet is made in a paramutual system against the aggregate bet of all other analysts-- and there is, of course, some inefficiency due to insider information and trading. The majority of my funds, I invest in low cost funds, including foreign funds, sector funds, CEFs, and index funds.
    May 6, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short These Merrimack MM-398 Phase III Data [View article]
    MACK could use better clinical trial design, using adaptive trials. Indeed, I have written to them to do just that.

    The debate has been informative, but also misleading. What has been validated is a novel, very powerful drug delivery mechanism rather than a new drug. Hence, I feel MACK has a bright future. I am a long term investor with a significant position in MACK. I am also comforted by the fact that the leadership at MACK includes some of the brightest engineering (Lander) and business (Porter) minds I know.
    May 3, 2014. 01:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCV competitors [View news story]
    Thanks for the summary, I will stand on my bet on Gilead as the leader, though it may face price competition soon.
    Apr 21, 2014. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders pound Exelixis [View news story]
    Apr 1, 2014. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders pound Exelixis [View news story]
    How long do we have to wait for the trial to be completed and and any results on efficacy announced?
    Mar 30, 2014. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders pound Exelixis [View news story]
    I double my holdings today and will buy more, if it goes lower.
    Mar 26, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment