starkoski

John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?

Dear U51169,

I am troubled because I read comments from you & others that take your position that oil is going to $60/barrel & oil is in a bubble and yet we are facing the biggest problem that the USA & the world will ever face which is Peak Oil. I am also troubled because I don't know what I am going to do with all the money that I am making from you and other investors that are betting that oil is going to $60/barrel. I have been shorting any company that has high oil costs and I am long (every Penney I have) in companies that produce oil, nat gas, coal, uranium and even alternate energy - oh food too. I have been doing very well thank you and I will continue to do well because oil and the other energy sources are going to the moon. As far as Dr. Hubbert well he was right about the USA peaking in oil production in 1970 and he is right about the world peaking now. Now let’s talk about supply & demand. A 4th grade class would understand this - that total petroleum production (including nat gas condensates and syn crude) is 85 MB/D and total world demand is 87 MB/D. This is why oil has gone from $80/barrel to $140/barrel in 6 months or so. These numbers come from T. Boone Pickens, Matt Simmons the IEA & other people who are competent. So where are you getting your supply & demand figures from - CERA or Bozo the Clown? Now I am sure that Mr. Hussman is a very nice and professional type but I don't think that he has a clue that the 5 largest oil fields in the world are in terminal decline & that world oil discovery peaked in 1963. That out of the 65 largest oil producing nations in the world- 54 is in decline. And that the quality of the existing oil produced in the world is of constantly less quality (sour crude) hence less net energy or oil production. Now about flow rate. People like you also like to talk about how much oil is available in known in ground reserves which seems like allot but remember that in ground reserves mean nothing because it is all about how much oil can you get out or the ground and what is the EROEI (energy return on energy invested). This is why our country is in big dodo and we have guys like you that singing happy songs about oil supply and demand when demand is 2 MB/D over supply and going to constantly getting worse every year forward. So U51169 I respectfully disagree with you & please reconsider the real evidence and learn about the facts and get educated so our country & our communities & our families can start the real responses to this horrible dilemma before it is too late.


On Jul 09 06:38 PM User 51169 wrote:

> Starkoski is troubled participant. He continues to speak about "Peak
> Oil" as if he's M. King Hubbert himself. Flow rate is not the only
> factor in the price of oil, even starkoski should know better. (Though
> he apparently does not.) Supply and demand is a factor, and nothing
> in supply and demand suggests oil doubling from $70 to $140 in a
> single year. Dollar destruction is a factor, and in the near term,
> it may indeed appreciate against world currencies. Speculation is
> a factor, and with 20 times more oil being traded than delivered,
> speculators have moved from dot-com to real estate to commodities.
> Psychology is a factor, and everyone has been pushing the long side.
> But if there's enough of an economic slowdown, a push to drill, a
> push for alternatives, oil can and will come down in price. John