starkoski

Oil Prices: Higher or Lower in 2010?

Supply will not increase and will decrease due to peak oil and the land export model. When oil went to $147 there was little supply response and now with the world economies improving supply will not be able to keep up with demand. Even the IEA come out and spoke about the looming peak oil problem even though they think it will be later. It looks like supply peaked over the last 4 years and it is rolling over - forever. Tell me you opinion on this response.
Thanks

Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production

Very good article - we are really at the peak now due to nat gas condensates in decline already. Our society is not prepared for this and get ready for the big problem to come.

Recapping My Great Calls on Oil

Amazing what a genius you are. I'll bet that the last 6 years of this oil bull you were constantly declaring oil was in a bubble. When oil goes to $300/barrel in 2011 and then $500/barrel in 2014 you will still be blowing the bubble horn. I suggest you get educated about why oil is in a very very long term bull - Peak Oil. I certainly hope that you are putting your money where your mouth is.

Do Oil and the Market Still Have a Lot of Downside?

Ernie, thats very funny - i like that! Jim, yes the world will use a little less oil & gas but you did not mention much that the world oil production decline rate for oil is 4MBD and this will trump any less world oil consumption. Also consider that energy will get an additional boost due to the intensive debasement of our currency & the currencies of the world due to their epic struggle against falling into deflation. Energy shares will get a great boost as a safe haven in a competative currency devaulation throughout the world. And finally - the world is starting to see the ugly head of the medusa, the bringer of evil the devil herself in the realization of Peak Oil. Keep your head turned away and look at the energy stocks for protection.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

I disagree with your thesis because geology beats physiology. Peak oil is absolute and your physiology cannot accept the evidence of geology.

John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?

Dear U51169,

I am troubled because I read comments from you & others that take your position that oil is going to $60/barrel & oil is in a bubble and yet we are facing the biggest problem that the USA & the world will ever face which is Peak Oil. I am also troubled because I don't know what I am going to do with all the money that I am making from you and other investors that are betting that oil is going to $60/barrel. I have been shorting any company that has high oil costs and I am long (every Penney I have) in companies that produce oil, nat gas, coal, uranium and even alternate energy - oh food too. I have been doing very well thank you and I will continue to do well because oil and the other energy sources are going to the moon. As far as Dr. Hubbert well he was right about the USA peaking in oil production in 1970 and he is right about the world peaking now. Now let’s talk about supply & demand. A 4th grade class would understand this - that total petroleum production (including nat gas condensates and syn crude) is 85 MB/D and total world demand is 87 MB/D. This is why oil has gone from $80/barrel to $140/barrel in 6 months or so. These numbers come from T. Boone Pickens, Matt Simmons the IEA & other people who are competent. So where are you getting your supply & demand figures from - CERA or Bozo the Clown? Now I am sure that Mr. Hussman is a very nice and professional type but I don't think that he has a clue that the 5 largest oil fields in the world are in terminal decline & that world oil discovery peaked in 1963. That out of the 65 largest oil producing nations in the world- 54 is in decline. And that the quality of the existing oil produced in the world is of constantly less quality (sour crude) hence less net energy or oil production. Now about flow rate. People like you also like to talk about how much oil is available in known in ground reserves which seems like allot but remember that in ground reserves mean nothing because it is all about how much oil can you get out or the ground and what is the EROEI (energy return on energy invested). This is why our country is in big dodo and we have guys like you that singing happy songs about oil supply and demand when demand is 2 MB/D over supply and going to constantly getting worse every year forward. So U51169 I respectfully disagree with you & please reconsider the real evidence and learn about the facts and get educated so our country & our communities & our families can start the real responses to this horrible dilemma before it is too late.


On Jul 09 06:38 PM User 51169 wrote:

> Starkoski is troubled participant. He continues to speak about "Peak
> Oil" as if he's M. King Hubbert himself. Flow rate is not the only
> factor in the price of oil, even starkoski should know better. (Though
> he apparently does not.) Supply and demand is a factor, and nothing
> in supply and demand suggests oil doubling from $70 to $140 in a
> single year. Dollar destruction is a factor, and in the near term,
> it may indeed appreciate against world currencies. Speculation is
> a factor, and with 20 times more oil being traded than delivered,
> speculators have moved from dot-com to real estate to commodities.
> Psychology is a factor, and everyone has been pushing the long side.
> But if there's enough of an economic slowdown, a push to drill, a
> push for alternatives, oil can and will come down in price. John

Nigeria: The Elephant in the Corner

Jim, at the end of the day we can talk about peak oil & increasing world demand and that is what we should do. Now - immediately and the next day too and the one after that because that is what the real problem really is. The world's old supergiant oil fields are significantly in decline and the decline is getting more profound and world demand is increasing fast. This is the viewpoint of Matt Simmons and I share that viewpoint too. Your viewpoint that the politically unstable producers that are having trouble maintaining their production is the essence of our delima is narrow-minded & superficial. The world must replace 4M/day/year just to make up for existing oil well depletion & new demand. The world can't do that and the supply - demand imbalance will just keep getting worse. Today demand is 87 MBD & supply is 85 MBD. Expect the gap to widen each year with continuing higher prices. Its the peak Jim - get ready for oil at $300/barrel in 2011.

Speculators Continue to Drive Oil Higher at Risk of Global Recession

Unfortunately you don't understand peak oil. The world must replace 4 MB/D/Year just to make up for existing oil field decline rates and increased demand. It can't do that and now real oil price discovery is going on and oil is going tp $500 by 2013.