Marshall Sohne

2 Comments

    • A Fed Rate Hike Won't Solve the Current Crisis [view article]
      I hope that talk of raising interest rates by the fed by some of the fed governors is just a head fake.The economy is superleveraged as well as our government therefore us being deeply in debt. Our financial system our banks are contracting their balance sheets creating a deflating effect on various assets and industries. Presently we must recognize that the increase in the price of energy is causing a restructuring of society and business. We must for the forseeable future plan our strategies around higher energy prices. We have to use less import less which will require us to restructure how we think and live. Life will still be good. It seems like our government has been a little slow at coming up with the strategies I think the people of this country are waiting for thier leaders to lead. I think its time for the people to work their own strategies. We dont need a lot of the junk we buy to be happy. We dont need to import our way to bankruptcy. Weve got so much going for us in this great country of ours. We got food, we got clean water we got a beautiful land technoloy we got universities we got a diverse population living with a bill of rights and a constitution. We as a people can figure this one out. I think we need to show what we can do as consumers of imports lets cut back on our uses of hydrocarbons. Im sure we will eventually have electric cars. Our motor companies have to get on board before they go bankrupt enough with huge suvs that get minimum mpgs. They should assume gas will get more expensive and people here will become more frugal. They also have to have strategies or they will be bankrupt. Hoping that the price of oil will go back down to 30 a barrel is not a strategy. We must plan for the future. We have to look at ways to reduce our imports. If that means more people living in the cities and less suburban sprawl so be it. It if means more bicycles and less suvs so be it. If it means less materialism and more spiritualism. I think we can still be happy. I think the author is right we have inflation the government knows this because they help it along by printing the money. I think the government strategy is to slowly inflate its way out of this deflation bubble and thereby rescue the banks our economy and homeowners is a reasonable strategy certainly not perfect. Raising interest rates during this type of economic contraction will accelerate the liquidation phase and cause a lot of pain if we can avoid this with a measure of inflation and some leadership so we can restructure our economy we might get luckly. When I hear our government officials blaming this on the speculators either they dont have a clue or they as politicians prefer avoiding their responsibilites by scapegoatting the "evil speculators" Jul 24 11:05 AM
    • $125 Oil Not Sustainable for the Time Being [view article]
      Im in Real Estate Ive been in it for few cycles the bubble aspect of the business (or at least the prices) is kind of like musical chairs you play the game but in the back of your mind you know the music will stop and you hope you end up with a chair. Ive done ok and so far Ive been lucky. Energy especially oil and gas has been relatively cheap for a long time. I guess we as country ignored or at least sat by and failed to play heads up to the changing world. Cheap energy thats yesterdays news. Going forward at least for the near to middle term energy is going up. It will go up to what ever price balances supply and demand. This is energy , plenty of oil and gas it just a question of price. Oil can be made synthetically out of coal or natural gas but we are no longer going to be just reaping the low hung fruit. The prices as we know are determined at the margins. The prices are also going to be determined by worldwide demand and competition. And while it is clear that the high prices are causing some demand destruction in our country. There are many developing countries where the dynamics of their economies are causing more demand so that net demand overall may not be abating. Supply has at least flattened oil pools deplete overtime the low hung fruit the easy oil supply is depleting. Deep oil, tar sands, shale, coal gassification require more effort , more energy, higher costs. What price should oil be ? What price should water be ? What price for food? I dont believe new supply will come on line for less than whatever it costs to produce thats just how it is ? If we are short supply than it gets allocated by who ever bids the highest. Thats where we are right now. So over time we get new supply to satisfy demand assuming higher prices create incentives at the same time we have demand destruction to the extent needed. Ok Oil is more expensive than it has been. Is it a bubble ??? we will see I am no expert but where is all the ready supply hiding ? I see the demand destruction but worldwide i guess these high prices have some more work to do ? Hopefully all the demand destruction wont just be pain but will guide us to alternate life styles and technologies. They say necessity is the mother of invention. For disclosure purposes I own a bunch of PWE both for the yield and I would have thought It would have moved much higher with oil and gas prices at this level. I have no expertise with stocks but it seems that PWE has the cash flow, controls some low hanging fruit that I expect to go up in value and I am willing to take the risking of receiving their double digit yield while watching the worlds economies clean up the mess we are in. I also read David Bui comments on Seeking Alpha I dont think he is bashing PWE. His comments appear well thought out and fair. If it is disturbing than maybe one should seek the answers to his questions. Im still holding on to my shares I think the fundamentals and pricing over power nuances raised by his questions. But Id like to hear the answers in any event. Transparency is important. Jun 08 07:34 PM
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