User 207017

MercadoLibre: Inside Selling Ignored by Permabulls

Here is what I dont like about this stock on top of the many other things.

On top of the insider selling etc etc just take a moment and go to alexa.com. Alexa is like the free version of comscore.com and has all sorts of stats for websites from around the globe.

If you type in the brazil version of the site...mercadolivre.com you can see the site's stats. What you notice is a great q1 in terms of reach, ranking and page views. But what is very troubling is the fact that all of these things have been falling since the end of March. You can do the same thing for MELI's sites in any country but take a look at argentina ... mercadolibre.com.ar and mexico...mercadolibre.... Troubling enough is the fact that they are also declining in those 3 key metrics. Mexico is really falling off in a big way. So here is my problem...the company missed bottom line estimates in q1 with fantastic results in those 3 key metrics, so how in the world will they meet consensus for q2 with the situation being what it is in terms of reach, rank and page views all falling for q2. Its worth noting that consensus estimates are not falling, so something has to give. Personally, i think they will miss earnings again! if they could only muster 5 cents for q1 and based on the stats i have given above, can they really muster 9 cents this quarter? Mercadopago is a nice little piece of the puzzle but it wont really yield results until q3 or q4 as thats when it will be rolling out into brazil etc. To me, all of this selling does not bold well. Galperin has 12 months to sell 1.7 million shares and in just a couple of weeks he sells about 1/4 regardless of the fact that his heavy selling was driving down the price. Normal selling by insiders give the stock a chance to recover in price before continuing to sell. This guy just steamed ahead regardless of the consequences for the stock price. I dont like it - and I am glad i bought at $31.50.