User 207017

A Personal Thank You to Momentum Investors

Maybe the price of the stock will pop....in the form of a stock split?? I too like the trailing limit order further complimented with the sale of a covered call way out of the money to further enhance my yield and grabbing some gains when it falls. For now, its fun riding the wave. cheers.

PotashCorp and Mosaic: Get Your Orders Ready

Nicely done - Monsanto reports on June 25th - that could be a key date as in the past when one of the ag plays did well, the rest of the sector got a boost. Fed meeting and meeting in Saudi this weekend should all play a role in how this trades. Furthermore, the DOW approaches a key technical point 11740. All told, could be an interesting week next week. Nice work on the analysis.

MercadoLibre: Inside Selling Ignored by Permabulls

and the mexico site is mercadolibre.com.mx - sorry for that omission as well - cheers

MercadoLibre: Inside Selling Ignored by Permabulls

sorry the brazil version of MELI is actually mercadolivre.com.br - i mistyped it above

MercadoLibre: Inside Selling Ignored by Permabulls

Here is what I dont like about this stock on top of the many other things.

On top of the insider selling etc etc just take a moment and go to alexa.com. Alexa is like the free version of comscore.com and has all sorts of stats for websites from around the globe.

If you type in the brazil version of the site...mercadolivre.com you can see the site's stats. What you notice is a great q1 in terms of reach, ranking and page views. But what is very troubling is the fact that all of these things have been falling since the end of March. You can do the same thing for MELI's sites in any country but take a look at argentina ... mercadolibre.com.ar and mexico...mercadolibre.... Troubling enough is the fact that they are also declining in those 3 key metrics. Mexico is really falling off in a big way. So here is my problem...the company missed bottom line estimates in q1 with fantastic results in those 3 key metrics, so how in the world will they meet consensus for q2 with the situation being what it is in terms of reach, rank and page views all falling for q2. Its worth noting that consensus estimates are not falling, so something has to give. Personally, i think they will miss earnings again! if they could only muster 5 cents for q1 and based on the stats i have given above, can they really muster 9 cents this quarter? Mercadopago is a nice little piece of the puzzle but it wont really yield results until q3 or q4 as thats when it will be rolling out into brazil etc. To me, all of this selling does not bold well. Galperin has 12 months to sell 1.7 million shares and in just a couple of weeks he sells about 1/4 regardless of the fact that his heavy selling was driving down the price. Normal selling by insiders give the stock a chance to recover in price before continuing to sell. This guy just steamed ahead regardless of the consequences for the stock price. I dont like it - and I am glad i bought at $31.50.

Mercado Libre: Overhyped

I agree completely with the above comment. I think the stock will be hitting $60 by the time the company reports its q2 numbers. The Barron's article is quite positive on the stock. It just notes to be cautious ....as one should be all the time when investing. As the comment notes above, there is no mention of people using MELI multiple times, which we know does happen. Furthermore, i checked out alexa and its true the company has had a dramatic rise in its global rank and is upward trending - I also looked up mercadopago.com and the same thing is true - its had a dramatic rise. Furthermore, if you go to the yahoo page for the stock, under this blog is the blog that talks about the company's desire to improve their revenues first until they reach a critical mass - which wont happen until they launch Pago in all their markets, have their marketing campaign going in full swing. I dont think the stock is overhyped now as it was a few months ago. Did it get ahead of itself last year? Sure but now its moving up at a more reasonable rate. Dont forget they are also in discussions with google regarding the orkut site (the facebook of brazil and top website in brazil). If they can have the ability to link from that site it would also provide a dramatic rise in revenue. There is alot of positives and momentum for this stock as Barrons notes - I think if one has some patience, they wont regret it. By the way, the chart above is indicative of most tech stocks including ebay, google, amazon and bidu etc etc. and visa, and mastercard too. Who doesnt wish they had Mastercard at its IPO price.....

Mercado Libre: Overhyped

your article is interesting. I dont know what "overhyped" is referring to however. If this means a price of $150 by year's end - then yes its overhyped - I agree. However $60-65 by the end of the year....likely - in my opinion. I however tend to think that the key for this company is revenue (top line) more than bottom line at this point. As a young company they will have lots of discretionary spending so they may miss bottom line consensus - but they did for q1 the stock dropped from $54 to $50 in after hours but during the course of the day, the next day it rose. As the conference call said during Q1 earnings, those discretionary spending dollars can be adjusted and brought down but right now its about building a name and momentum ie the commercials currently running. Interesting to note is that if you go to alexa.com and you type in the website mercadolibre.com to see the website's stats what you will notice is that the site goes from being about the 3000-3500th most popular site globally for several months and shoots up to number 2000 globally in the past couple of weeks (click the rank tab) - by the way the "reach" and "page views" also shoots up. This coincides with the company's marketing campaign which begain in late April (the big rise takes place in early May) according to the q1 earnings call. So at the very least, their marketing campaign seems to be off to a strong start. This is the type of thing that will continue to push up top line performance - revenue. The bottom line will come. Just my thoughts. I dont own it but its one i have been following. One problem i found with Barrons is that they completely discount the possibility of people using the site more than once. Like E-Bay, the company has users who use it multiple times so even though the company is growing faster than the internet penetration rate - people can and do use it more than one time - Barron's just looks at the penetration rate and discounts multiple uses. Finally, as far as the company's longevity, they just one 3rd place in best companies to work for in South America - so they are doing things (outside of the financials) which bode well for it. I dont know about shorting and going long at certain prices - but I would just be wary about discounting it too much. I tend to watch the options market to see where the stock is heading because its so thinly traded, large positions and holders can and do move this stock. Cheers,