User 207017's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/207017/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/81787-a-personal-thank-you-to-momentum-investors?source=feed#comment-189518 189518 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:46:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82117-potashcorp-and-mosaic-get-your-orders-ready?source=feed#comment-189515 189515 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:39:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81436-mercadolibre-inside-selling-ignored-by-permabulls?source=feed#comment-186764 186764 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:07:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81436-mercadolibre-inside-selling-ignored-by-permabulls?source=feed#comment-186763 186763 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:06:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81436-mercadolibre-inside-selling-ignored-by-permabulls?source=feed#comment-186762 186762
On top of the insider selling etc etc just take a moment and go to alexa.com. Alexa is like the free version of comscore.com and has all sorts of stats for websites from around the globe.

If you type in the brazil version of the site...mercadolivre.com you can see the site's stats. What you notice is a great q1 in terms of reach, ranking and page views. But what is very troubling is the fact that all of these things have been falling since the end of March. You can do the same thing for MELI's sites in any country but take a look at argentina ... mercadolibre.com.ar and mexico...mercadolibre.... Troubling enough is the fact that they are also declining in those 3 key metrics. Mexico is really falling off in a big way. So here is my problem...the company missed bottom line estimates in q1 with fantastic results in those 3 key metrics, so how in the world will they meet consensus for q2 with the situation being what it is in terms of reach, rank and page views all falling for q2. Its worth noting that consensus estimates are not falling, so something has to give. Personally, i think they will miss earnings again! if they could only muster 5 cents for q1 and based on the stats i have given above, can they really muster 9 cents this quarter? Mercadopago is a nice little piece of the puzzle but it wont really yield results until q3 or q4 as thats when it will be rolling out into brazil etc. To me, all of this selling does not bold well. Galperin has 12 months to sell 1.7 million shares and in just a couple of weeks he sells about 1/4 regardless of the fact that his heavy selling was driving down the price. Normal selling by insiders give the stock a chance to recover in price before continuing to sell. This guy just steamed ahead regardless of the consequences for the stock price. I dont like it - and I am glad i bought at $31.50.]]> Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:06:06 -0400
On top of the insider selling etc etc just take a moment and go to alexa.com. Alexa is like the free version of comscore.com and has all sorts of stats for websites from around the globe.

If you type in the brazil version of the site...mercadolivre.com you can see the site's stats. What you notice is a great q1 in terms of reach, ranking and page views. But what is very troubling is the fact that all of these things have been falling since the end of March. You can do the same thing for MELI's sites in any country but take a look at argentina ... mercadolibre.com.ar and mexico...mercadolibre.... Troubling enough is the fact that they are also declining in those 3 key metrics. Mexico is really falling off in a big way. So here is my problem...the company missed bottom line estimates in q1 with fantastic results in those 3 key metrics, so how in the world will they meet consensus for q2 with the situation being what it is in terms of reach, rank and page views all falling for q2. Its worth noting that consensus estimates are not falling, so something has to give. Personally, i think they will miss earnings again! if they could only muster 5 cents for q1 and based on the stats i have given above, can they really muster 9 cents this quarter? Mercadopago is a nice little piece of the puzzle but it wont really yield results until q3 or q4 as thats when it will be rolling out into brazil etc. To me, all of this selling does not bold well. Galperin has 12 months to sell 1.7 million shares and in just a couple of weeks he sells about 1/4 regardless of the fact that his heavy selling was driving down the price. Normal selling by insiders give the stock a chance to recover in price before continuing to sell. This guy just steamed ahead regardless of the consequences for the stock price. I dont like it - and I am glad i bought at $31.50.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80548-mercado-libre-overhyped?source=feed#comment-181573 181573 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 20:55:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80548-mercado-libre-overhyped?source=feed#comment-181557 181557 alexa.com and you type in the website mercadolibre.com to see the website's stats what you will notice is that the site goes from being about the 3000-3500th most popular site globally for several months and shoots up to number 2000 globally in the past couple of weeks (click the rank tab) - by the way the "reach" and "page views" also shoots up. This coincides with the company's marketing campaign which begain in late April (the big rise takes place in early May) according to the q1 earnings call. So at the very least, their marketing campaign seems to be off to a strong start. This is the type of thing that will continue to push up top line performance - revenue. The bottom line will come. Just my thoughts. I dont own it but its one i have been following. One problem i found with Barrons is that they completely discount the possibility of people using the site more than once. Like E-Bay, the company has users who use it multiple times so even though the company is growing faster than the internet penetration rate - people can and do use it more than one time - Barron's just looks at the penetration rate and discounts multiple uses. Finally, as far as the company's longevity, they just one 3rd place in best companies to work for in South America - so they are doing things (outside of the financials) which bode well for it. I dont know about shorting and going long at certain prices - but I would just be wary about discounting it too much. I tend to watch the options market to see where the stock is heading because its so thinly traded, large positions and holders can and do move this stock. Cheers,]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 20:13:29 -0400 alexa.com and you type in the website mercadolibre.com to see the website's stats what you will notice is that the site goes from being about the 3000-3500th most popular site globally for several months and shoots up to number 2000 globally in the past couple of weeks (click the rank tab) - by the way the "reach" and "page views" also shoots up. This coincides with the company's marketing campaign which begain in late April (the big rise takes place in early May) according to the q1 earnings call. So at the very least, their marketing campaign seems to be off to a strong start. This is the type of thing that will continue to push up top line performance - revenue. The bottom line will come. Just my thoughts. I dont own it but its one i have been following. One problem i found with Barrons is that they completely discount the possibility of people using the site more than once. Like E-Bay, the company has users who use it multiple times so even though the company is growing faster than the internet penetration rate - people can and do use it more than one time - Barron's just looks at the penetration rate and discounts multiple uses. Finally, as far as the company's longevity, they just one 3rd place in best companies to work for in South America - so they are doing things (outside of the financials) which bode well for it. I dont know about shorting and going long at certain prices - but I would just be wary about discounting it too much. I tend to watch the options market to see where the stock is heading because its so thinly traded, large positions and holders can and do move this stock. Cheers,]]>