I agree with most of this analysis - already hold CHLN, thanks for helping me discover NEP. I've avoided GSI (in spite of a Motley Fool buy recommendation) due to its debt load. Debt load + credit crisis was too scary for me. I'm surprised you don't seem to have any worries about their ability to raise capital - can you explain why?
Yeah your numbers are out of date - they took on $2 billion in debt from the Hercules acquisition. That is why their stock has cratered, on fears that they will default or be unable to pay or re-finance the short-term portion of the acquisition costs.
Also, Graham would not have cared about a short-term downtrend in earnings.
Kick Consumers While They're Down: Oil and Gasoline Diverge [View article]
Crack spreads (for refining oil to gasoline) have returned from NEGATIVE to more normal ranges. This is part of the result of that. I wish I would have thought of betting the spreads this way.
Bartz's Hiring Has Put It Off, But Microsoft Must Ultimately Acquire Yahoo [View article]
With little basis for the stated opinions and no consideration given to the wide array of possibilities ahead of Yahoo, this article really has no merit whatsoever.
What's Driving Precision Drilling Trust Into the Ground? [View article]
I think to say that it is the acquisition which torpedoed this stock misses the truth: the stock torpedoed because of the convergence of (a) impending payments on debt (b) expected slash in dividend (c) $100 drop in oil prices.
Assuming that none of these will bankrupt the company, you've got a ticker trading for about twice cash-flow, an insane valuation for an industry stalwart.
Long PDS (@$16 boo), GW(@ $4.60 last month boo-yah!)
Under Armour: What Are Investors Thinking? [View article]
Flaws with this article: 1) Ignores growth rate of company and the fact that earnings are not the primary focus. P/S (just over 1) is a better indicator and much more reasonable. 2) Ignores obvious brand strength as evidenced by gross and net margins, ROE
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Latest | Highest ratedBuy These Three Stocks During the Dip in Highly Valued China [View article]
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thanks,
Aaron
Will Ashland Channel Ben Graham? [View article]
Also, Graham would not have cared about a short-term downtrend in earnings.
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A Cure for Systemic Risk. Seriously. [View article]
Kick Consumers While They're Down: Oil and Gasoline Diverge [View article]
Nike Should Buy Under Armour [View article]
11 Reasons Why It's Time to Invest in China and 5 Ways to Play It [View article]
Bartz's Hiring Has Put It Off, But Microsoft Must Ultimately Acquire Yahoo [View article]
What's Driving Precision Drilling Trust Into the Ground? [View article]
Assuming that none of these will bankrupt the company, you've got a ticker trading for about twice cash-flow, an insane valuation for an industry stalwart.
Long PDS (@$16 boo), GW(@ $4.60 last month boo-yah!)
Under Armour: What Are Investors Thinking? [View article]
1) Ignores growth rate of company and the fact that earnings are not the primary focus. P/S (just over 1) is a better indicator and much more reasonable.
2) Ignores obvious brand strength as evidenced by gross and net margins, ROE
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'Panics Do Not Destroy Capital' [View article]
Who Says Amazon's Margins Are Rising? [View article]
Updated Yahoo Exec Tracker: 114 Execs Gone in 18 Months [View article]