RCA

The Economic Meltdown: Dismantling, Yes; Doom, No

You oversimplify, and fail to understand the ramifications of what Fred Wilson was saying in the blog article you cite. While agreeing that Wilson's thesis probably holds true, you claim that it will only be applicable to American companies. This is how you transformed Wilson's analysis into your axe to grind about the war.

Suppose Wilson is correct in his prediction (and hope) that in their restructuring, the automakers will adopt a far more efficient distribution model, using internet purchases and direct delivery in lieu of a dealer network. There are some important reasons why this is problematic, but let's just suppose that it does come to pass.

If the Big 3 implemented such a model because it reduced their overhead significantly and gave them a competitive advantage, do you not think that Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes, et al would also adopt this business model? In fact, they would suffer less hardship in converting from the current dealer-model because their dealership networks are less entrenched and less powerful than those of the American car makers.

Lets look at another industry that Wilson talks about: mainstream media. If American newspapers and magazines get universally transformed from printing presses and physical delivery infrastructures, why would foreign newspapers and magazines prosper under the current model of physically printing and delivering content?

You actually make no hard case for your thesis that the US war makes things different for US companies - that this is the reason they will transform their business models. The sea-changes that are coming for industries world-wide, will be hastened by the war and its financial effects for American companies. But the changes will occur internationally, nevertheless. If anything, this would bode well for American industries, if they are ushered into a more prosperous future earlier than their international counterparts.

This piece, cloaked in the garment of "analysis," is a thinly veiled effort to espouse your political views rather than to inform. The internet will transform (is currently transforming) many businesses in many industries. The financial implications of the US war effort may hasten this metamorphosis for America, but the rest of the world will follow. If the business climate is better, and operations more profitable under a bit-based economy, there is no reason why they wouldn't.

I, too, deplore the way the Iraq war was (mis)handled. I, too, believe that it was criminal to divert so many billions of dollars on this trumped-up war when it could have been spent on education or health care in this country. But you do yourself and your argument a disservice with a red herring effort to cite the war as the reason that American companies will be changed by the Internet.

The Internet will change business globally simply because it will make business sense. American business may be forced into this change prematurely because of the financial drain of our war efforts. But this is ancillary, not causal.