RCA

Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets

I'm not up to speed on hedge funds, so excuse me if this is a silly question.

When hedge funds receive redemption requests, does that obligate them to sell holdings immediately? Or can they cover the redemptions with cash on hand and sell when the timing is more beneficial to them?

I'm just wondering if all of the YE selling is done, even though all of the YE redemptions are done.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF Hits Record High Inventory

On Dec 18 11:24 AM Mark123 wrote:

> wake up rca.... my point is----no meaningful conclusion can be deduced
> from this chart...

That was my interpretation of your remarks exactly, and, based on the chart, I humbly disagree with you. Take another look and think about it.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF Hits Record High Inventory

It is nice to have some analysis on the data, but, perhaps - just perhaps - the readers might try doing their own analysis. It's a shame so many people need to be spoon fed.

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

On Dec 15 10:20 AM GMiki wrote:

> RCA, Not so fast. That is, it takes time to drill and establish producing
> wells. Do you think they haven't been looking?

Yes, of course they have been looking. And much has been found.

Many large (if not huge) reserves have been found, but they are in places that are very uneconomic to pursue at today's prices. Some require new drilling technology, but at $200/bbl many of these start to look attractive, new technology will be developed, and drilling will commence.

There will be some latency in getting this bonanza to market, and there will be some latency in getting alternative fuels ramped up. There will be disruptions. But it will happen, and sooner than most people would (or want to) believe, peak oil will not matter anymore.

Pollyanna? No, more akin to Cassandra, who was endowed with the gift of prophecy but fated by Apollo never to be believed.

I am simply a realist who has witnessed many amazing realities that the popular "wisdom" proclaimed couldn't be done. Human ingenuity, when motivated by feasible, realistically obtainable profits and a nay-saying public always wins. The fact that there are skeptics is a tautological necessity.

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

Yes, there is a finite supply of oil. But your analysis ignores the reality of the marketplace.

We will most assuredly run out of *cheap* oil within the next decade. But several things will happen to alleviate the dire circumstances you portray.

- With the concomitant high price of oil the world will find it profitable to drill in previously uneconomic locations which warehouse a large untapped reserve.

- The high price of oil will also rejuvenate the alternative fuels industry. Electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, et al will find it easy to compete when gasoline is $8+ a gallon.

- Habits and philosophies will change. Gone will be the gas-guzzling trucks, SUVs, and muscle cars. Replacing them will be super-mini bug-like pods which get up to 120 miles a gallon, as people are forced to realize they just can't afford to maintain old lifestyles and habits. These cars will be supplied by auto manufacturers that don't even exist now, as the BIG three and most foreign companies won't be able to change designs, downsize, and retool fast enough. The biggest challenge will be trying to make a profit on such a significantly smaller usage of labor and materials. New companies with new paradigms and business models will be able to do that.

Npne of this will prevent the eventual, inevitable shrinking of the world's oil supply to nothing (nothing that anyone wants to exploit). But it will postpone that occurence until it is no longer relevant.

Tuesday Overview: Confusion and Caution

sieraromero, I agree with thedozer that, unless you can offer evidence or a logical argument why his plan would have such dire consequences, your statements have little validity or merit. I'm not saying you are wrong, only that categorical statements with no supporting arguments are meaningless (and worthless).

thedozer, your proposal has some merit, but it has a fundamental flaw:

"Cancel ALL golden parachutes of EXISTING and FUTURE CEOs and executive team members as long as the company holds these government-insured bonds/mortgages. This keeps underperforming executives from being paid when they don’t do their jobs."

If this is a precondition for accepting the insurance, the companies (guided, of course, by their CEOs) will opt out of the insurance, rendering your plan moot.

Can you really expect that the officers of companies in crisis will be altruistic? Greed rules our economy and greedy CEOs will make sure that they get what they perceive that they "deserve," rather than making sure that the economic system doesn't implode.