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Why Today Is Different From the Inflationary 1970s

Thanks to 70's Stagflation Survivor for the link. Shadow Statistics does a great job on M3 and inflation calculations.

What they need to do next is to calculate 70's and 80's inflation using the current "new and improved" index". We could prove that inflation was really only 2.5% back then and that stagflation never occurred!!

ECB Calls Bernanke's Bluff

Great article.

Perhaps answers a question of mine. Gold "decoupled" from oil in the April time frame. I was curious as to why oil had gone wild and gold was flat. Now I know the probable cause; the ECB can and has moved to cap the price of gold but oil remains outside their control.

In another post here, there is a comment that Volcker's big regret was not moving to cap the price of gold in the 70's.

Oil Replaces Gold as the New Inflation Hedge

Oil pricing has grabbed the stage as the demon of the day. Gold and oil moved generally in tandem until they decoupled in about April. Likely due to wild speculation in oil that has not materialized in the gold market.

OK-- what happens when the oil bubble blows but inflation or wild geopolitics takes its place as the evil of the day? A lot of other bad things are masked by the oil hoopla. Will oil and gold drop together or will gold decouple and rise in a reverse crossover due to a new speculative bubble in gold? Dunno--At this point it seems that gold is moving down faster than oil in each oil dip.

I think that the etf's have made gold or silver much more of a "regular" investment. GE, MSFT, commodities, gold. silver-- who cares-- just analyze, buy, hold and sell. Part of the reason for the decoupling may be a new attitude about gold. The etf buyers jump in and out. They really don't see it as a lifestyle or political statement. It is just another potential investment that is now a mouse click away.

BTW--I dropped about a third of my gold and silver three months ago. 50% was enough gain and I was getting nervous. I am nervous again as well.

Inflation With No Growth in M1 For 3 Years in a Row?

As I understand it, M1 is too narrow a measure. M2 is normally used, but with globalization M3 has value as well. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... , particularly the chart of money supply growth. M3 growth is now estimated by shadow statistics at something around 18%.

Oil Will Peak at $150-200 - Barron's Interview

Funny, I can't find the supply problem in my little world. Gas stations have all they can sell. No lines or shortages due to limited supply that would drive prices up in a normal market.