User 207572

Bank of America Continues to Stand Strong

If feds nationalize BAC, BAC will ask feds to unwind the MER deal and take MER away from BAC. What could feds say? "Sorry nationalize two (BAC and MER) is better than one (BAC)?"

Would You Buy Bank of America Common?

BAC was trying to withdraw from the MER deal. Government pushed BAC. The action of taking BAC was the proof that share holders helped the fed. Now BAC is in trouble because of that. Do you think BAC's share holders will be punished? I don't think so, if so, they can sue the fed.

The Chinese Consumer in Time of Financial Crisis

Just came back from China, stayed there for 10 months. Malls are crowded but sales are slower. High end malls got hit too.

Concern is that house prices are about 10 times of annual income, too high.

But I do agree china has a future, better than U.S. So if the market goes down more next year, just hold on. 2010 will be good.

What's Oil's Future?

You forgot the oil consumption by the BRIC countries. This huge factor was not there in the 70's.

The First Shoe Drops as Bank of America Cuts Dividend by 50%

It is expected. Lewis talked about a rate cut when BAC aquired MER. You should have sold earlier. Did you listent to the conference?

RIMM Sinks, I’m Holding On

I, Mr. 207572 just like to make money. I currently do not own RIMM AND AAPL. I just want to help you guys to give my view since I invested in both companies for a long long time.

I have been hearing RIMM is trying to atrract developers to wrire software for corporate world and consumer for 8 years. See where they are now.

RIMM's revenue from consumers is a big share comparing with its revenue from business.

It is amazing few people want to short RIMM. IN 2002 summer, when market hit bottom, everyone wanted to short RIMM. AMAZING.

RIMM Sinks, I’m Holding On

I played with iPhoen and blackberry for a month. The I dumped all my RIMM shares. It is not because RIMM is not strong short term. The problem is that RIMM's model does not work any more. I don't know whether you know technology or not. I know investment and technology well. I actually invested in RIMM since it went public. I made lits of money by holding RIMM and AAPL last year too.

When I invested in RIMM since IPO, all pros were against me. They short RIMM heavily. Now they are all for RIMM. So strange because I thought the pros should know better. Sadly, they don't know a thing.

Here is the theory. I know you don't think I am right. But I tried:

When RIMM was young, people didn't think a email pager is a big deal. I knew it was big because people want "in writing anywhere". It is important for corporate world politics. Voicemail is not good enough. So, even RIMMs' device didn't have cell phone function. People still needed it, not to mention email and voice two-in-one. There were lots can be said why PALM, MSFT failed. But that's not the key point.

Why RIMM is doomed now? 1) It doesn't have iTune function - people want iPod and Cellphone in one. 2) Even it has iTune, it is not iPod. 3) It's OS cannot attract 3rd party software developers. RIMM tried this almost since the beginning. 3) Blackberry focused on technical features and security. It is not enough now. People want usability and style. 4) If APPL is fashion designer, RIMM is a tailor. They both make things for people to wear.

So, RIMM will first see its consumer market share stop growing, then shrink. This will kill its P/E ratio. It will take several years to see what will happen to its corporate world market share. I bet, eventually, it will be phased out or stayed as an old corporate email too. You know each company has lots of those old stuff. You don't need to see RIMM die. All you need is a slow growth story - then RIMM share will be around 40 - 50 dollars.

I doens't matter how RIMM's share perform short term. Don't look at the sales numbers short term. You have to see deeper than this to be a good investor.


Well, I tried. It's your money.

Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product

When RIM just went publuic, people used similar argument - people use phone to make phone calls. Who used a small device to write serious email. Guess what, RIM won.

Now same argument is made for RIM - phone is not mainly for music.

Please check again after 2 years.

It is really simple. No need to cary two devices. Also, RIM's advantages are all technical. Given time, AAPL can do all of them. Give RIM 10 years, it will still not be able to do music. RIM does not have that culture.

You may think it is easy to make things stylish. Check all the PCs, they are all ugly. Companies ruled by technicians don't know fashion.

Period.

Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product

RIM will lose consumer market share. It is Music, stupid. People want a device like iPhone. RIMM just cannot compete the music player part. That leaves Blackberry holders to carry additional ipod for music. It just doesn' work.

RIM's success was built on the market for "in writing anywhere" and phone/email in one. Now we want to add music. And RIMM just cannot do what apple is doing with the iTune.

How funny to see all the people on the street are cheering for RIMM. They call themselves pros. I remember when I invested in RIMM, the street bashed RIIM like hell. Now I am out of the stock and they are in.

Good luck.

Waiting for an entry point for AAPL.

Do Paulson and Bernanke Really Understand What's Going On?

So, if banks unload the bad stuff, will they then be clean? If they are clean, then banks will be able to trust each other. Also, they then can raise money from private sector since now they can be trusted. I don't see why Paulson's wont work although I see your issue.

An Early Christmas for Research In Motion?

Can you name one thing from RIMM that cannot be achieved by AAPL?
Can you imagine RIMM can do things in AAPL's way?

It is the software and music, stupid!

Also, RIMM's advantages are all technical. RIMM knows how to make clothes, but I don't think RIMM can make fashion.

8 Quick Comments on the Freddie/Fannie Bailout Plan

No, do not bail. Let's sink together so shorts can win. This is the best path for prosperity. This is the better way to let taxpayers pay short sellers for the mess...just sink together.

Where were you, my dear whiners, many years ago?

Making Sense of Wachovia's 27% Bounce Amid Record Losses

23-Jul-08 17:24 ET In Play Wachovia CEO bought 1 mln shares at $15.32-17.02 on 7/22 (17.65 +0.86) :

Citi, Merrill, WaMu: Death Spiral Financing

How to explain:
23-Jul-08 17:24 ET In Play Wachovia CEO bought 1 mln shares at $15.32-17.02 on 7/22 (17.65 +0.86) :