User 207572

RIMM Sinks, I’m Holding On

I, Mr. 207572 just like to make money. I currently do not own RIMM AND AAPL. I just want to help you guys to give my view since I invested in both companies for a long long time.

I have been hearing RIMM is trying to atrract developers to wrire software for corporate world and consumer for 8 years. See where they are now.

RIMM's revenue from consumers is a big share comparing with its revenue from business.

It is amazing few people want to short RIMM. IN 2002 summer, when market hit bottom, everyone wanted to short RIMM. AMAZING.

RIMM Sinks, I’m Holding On

I played with iPhoen and blackberry for a month. The I dumped all my RIMM shares. It is not because RIMM is not strong short term. The problem is that RIMM's model does not work any more. I don't know whether you know technology or not. I know investment and technology well. I actually invested in RIMM since it went public. I made lits of money by holding RIMM and AAPL last year too.

When I invested in RIMM since IPO, all pros were against me. They short RIMM heavily. Now they are all for RIMM. So strange because I thought the pros should know better. Sadly, they don't know a thing.

Here is the theory. I know you don't think I am right. But I tried:

When RIMM was young, people didn't think a email pager is a big deal. I knew it was big because people want "in writing anywhere". It is important for corporate world politics. Voicemail is not good enough. So, even RIMMs' device didn't have cell phone function. People still needed it, not to mention email and voice two-in-one. There were lots can be said why PALM, MSFT failed. But that's not the key point.

Why RIMM is doomed now? 1) It doesn't have iTune function - people want iPod and Cellphone in one. 2) Even it has iTune, it is not iPod. 3) It's OS cannot attract 3rd party software developers. RIMM tried this almost since the beginning. 3) Blackberry focused on technical features and security. It is not enough now. People want usability and style. 4) If APPL is fashion designer, RIMM is a tailor. They both make things for people to wear.

So, RIMM will first see its consumer market share stop growing, then shrink. This will kill its P/E ratio. It will take several years to see what will happen to its corporate world market share. I bet, eventually, it will be phased out or stayed as an old corporate email too. You know each company has lots of those old stuff. You don't need to see RIMM die. All you need is a slow growth story - then RIMM share will be around 40 - 50 dollars.

I doens't matter how RIMM's share perform short term. Don't look at the sales numbers short term. You have to see deeper than this to be a good investor.


Well, I tried. It's your money.

Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product

When RIM just went publuic, people used similar argument - people use phone to make phone calls. Who used a small device to write serious email. Guess what, RIM won.

Now same argument is made for RIM - phone is not mainly for music.

Please check again after 2 years.

It is really simple. No need to cary two devices. Also, RIM's advantages are all technical. Given time, AAPL can do all of them. Give RIM 10 years, it will still not be able to do music. RIM does not have that culture.

You may think it is easy to make things stylish. Check all the PCs, they are all ugly. Companies ruled by technicians don't know fashion.

Period.

Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product

RIM will lose consumer market share. It is Music, stupid. People want a device like iPhone. RIMM just cannot compete the music player part. That leaves Blackberry holders to carry additional ipod for music. It just doesn' work.

RIM's success was built on the market for "in writing anywhere" and phone/email in one. Now we want to add music. And RIMM just cannot do what apple is doing with the iTune.

How funny to see all the people on the street are cheering for RIMM. They call themselves pros. I remember when I invested in RIMM, the street bashed RIIM like hell. Now I am out of the stock and they are in.

Good luck.

Waiting for an entry point for AAPL.

An Early Christmas for Research In Motion?

Can you name one thing from RIMM that cannot be achieved by AAPL?
Can you imagine RIMM can do things in AAPL's way?

It is the software and music, stupid!

Also, RIMM's advantages are all technical. RIMM knows how to make clothes, but I don't think RIMM can make fashion.