bbzz24

Profiting from the $700 Billion Bailout

'Doing nothing will probably catalyze a global recession and sink the Dow to 8,000 or lower. Tens of millions of people around the world will lose their jobs and their homes, triggering a surge of inflation that will make the U.S. dollar worthless.'

HAHAHA....
How is this going to happen? Aren't the problem assets only home/auto/credit card loans made in the U.S.? The worst that could happen is contraction in credit (acutually good) and contraction in manufacturing in China/Japan in their export industries. The latter can trade with themselves more: cars for toys and rice.

Has the Dollar Bottomed?

hehe. your 'fundamental' analysis seemes really selective. the chinese already are reducing their purchases of U.S. gov't debt. now they want to invest in euro p/e funds (no more blackstones). the arabs are doing that for quite some time. doesn't this look like a predicate for slowed borrowing and higher interest rates as well due to slack demand? and doesnt this lead to slowing U.S. economy which would lead to further shrinking of the trade deficit.

to me it looks like you are just trying to spin the imminent delevering of the U.S. economy into 'fundamental strength'. and have you wondered why the government has to run 6% of GDP budget deficit and a SIV (aka war on terror in Iraq/Afghanistan) that accounts to another 3% of GDP, and another 1% on 'fiscal stimuli' to avoid the technical definition of recession: shrinking GDP. 10% real GDP deficit spending to inflate the economy with 1-2% 'growth'! i guess steroids are not banned in the congress either. for how long these 'fundamentals' can hold on?

Is the Eurozone Heading Off a Cliff?

Claus thanks for the follow up.
I am getting the same feeling about the U.S. economy. Taxes are about 10-15% lower than in Europe but there are no social benefits and against the very little already promised the government has borrowed and spent already big time.
Add to this the huge urban sprawls and lack of any desire among kids to study sciences, the huge external debts....
It looks there will be quite a bit of rebalancing in the world.

Is the Eurozone Heading Off a Cliff?

With a recession or not, it seems only the builders in the structurally weak Spain will suffer. Unemployment in rest of Europe will not be much of a problem to the unemployed who will be getting 80% of their last check's pay for about 2 years after laid off.

But economic growth has different drivers on both sides of the Atlantic and this does not seem fully appreciated. In Europe it is more organic: with real production driving GDP, and deficits about the GDP growth level. In the USA it is monetary: the government is printing too much money and some of it actually contributes to this GDP growth. Consider this: budget deficit spending is 2x the annual GDP growth for quite some time!!! How is this possible? Well, the Chinese and Japanese are willing, so far, to fund the U.S. growth in exchange for future claims against the government and the U.S. taxpayer.

In Europe much of gov't spending is on social programs: it helps with consumption but does not as directly affect GDP as imports soak up much of it. In the U.S. gov't spending is mostly in the military area which is entirely domestic and thus has almost 1:1 effect on GDP growth.

Claus, don't bother about the comments on your English: your sentences are difficult to read only for Americans, and that has much more to do with their educational background than your English.

Dollar on the Defensive Pending Bernanke Testimony, Retail Sales Data

if the dollar is on grace's lips it has much more value than on ben's. the poor helicopter guy is out of jet fuel...

The Fannie / Freddie Saga Benefits Short Sellers of Dollars, Financials

when hunky hank says "strong dollar policy" he means: strong ring muscle. you know where. or you dont want to know. either way, you get the point what is to come.

US Dollar: 5 Reasons It Will Not Hit a New Low

it is striking how those anal-ysts are so busy spitting new opinions at the public without ever looking at the credibility of their past.
does anyone expect helicopter ben to be piss off the politicians who appointed him? i do not. so dont expect significantly higher rates, a 1/4 or 1/2% will have no real impact on the economy as the problem is the return of principal not the return on principal as bill gross puts it. the economy has to deleverage first and that will lead to price deflation in all non productive assets and inflation will continue in commodities whose supply the government cant control.