Solar Guru

The Year in Solar: Strikes Mixed with Gutters

Most of the above analysis and commentory seems to be very factual and well documented but conclusions are probably a bit one sided. The main difference in conclusion whether it is mixed in gutters or a harbinger of growth is out there for the jury to decide. I personally think what we saw in last 24 months was a distorted picture of growth artificially propped by Govt incentives driving demand. What we are likely to see now is a real demand based on cost economics and without the expensive govt subsidy. With the poly silicon prices coming down to 50 dollar level a one could see the early sign of a massive consumer led demand based on pure cost economics without having to depend on govt subsidy . And this demand would be a sustainable one as the solar industry matures and able to afford the cost economics to support the margins to sustain this growth. Once this critical inflexion point is reached( at 50 dollar poly this is now within quarters of being able to achieve) one could expect to see a surge in demand for solar panely.
Of course the only risk one can see with this growth is the impact of low priced crystalline silicon panels would have on the thin film industry as total. I persoally think that the thin film industry had a prime time show for last 2 years due to artificially high polysilicon price induced high crystalline panel prices. That part of the show is over and with the crystalline panel prices now below 2.50 being feasible the thin film panels would now have to contend with sub 2 dollar pricing and the resultant margin erosion. Most thin film mfg also has the significant capex requirements with limited addressable market. Most like FSLR would have limited market in terms of power plants and they have limitations on roof top whether residential or commercial. This would mean their addressable market is probably arond 35% of the total and even in the utility projects high efficiency solar panels would have significant cost advantages over thin film in what the the utility industry looks for in terms of levelized cost of energy production(LCOE)
So the conclusion I would draw is a healthy growth for the crystalline industry in the coming years and a down ward journey for thin film.