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The Transition from Handset to Smartphone to Smartbook

There are two parallel transitions, with the destination all being a type of smartphone and a future slightly larger smartphone (but much smaller than a netbook). The netbook will eventually be seen as large and clunky compared to the always always always with you smartphone. Only 'special operations' will require the book, and once we make the mental transitions, they will seen less often.

Apple's Good Problems

Many have missed how the existing world of iPod owners do realize how different the Touch is, and many are making the upgrade. From this perspective we may see units sales drop slightly, but the mix will include more of the high margin device. Revenue will therefore not drop in proportion to the unit drop. I just hope Touch shortages are shortlived as you don't get a lot of second chances with holiday shopping.

Will Apple's Q1 2009 Revenue Estimates Be a Blowout?

Thanks for respsonding! I'm really not that pessimistic, but thought that you hadn't explained the iPhone total in the same detail as the others fators and thought it would make a useful discussion. I make 'upsides/optimistic' and 'downside/pessimistic' lists to keep my head steady these days. WIthout the negative list I would have sold all my worldly possessions for appl under $100 (and I still at least need the car).

To continue on the negative, Germany/Uk/France we're not part of last year's initial quarter and could help explain the increase in the following quarter.

On the optimistic side:
- it's still the holiday quarter
- more points of distribution in US (BestBuy)
- last q was not a full quarter
- supply issues restricted sales early
- 22 countries were added late in the q (incl. INDIA)
- even if smaller, there are still new countries being added this quarter
- those who waited to see a Gphone/Bold/Storm etc. can now buy their iPhone with confidence
- a larger number of carrier contracts likely expire in the holiday q making more buyers available
- the impact of the App Store is becoming more obvious everyday
- more iPhones leads to more iPhone sales as the 'personal demos pyramid' occurs
- the room for growth is immense

Hmmm...maybe 8M is conservative?

Also, you're dead on re: gross margin percentage. You cannot change that one cell in your model with revisiting many other factors. Apple understands their premium position and makes very smart decisions as to where and when decisions will affect GM. This is not some company suffering deep market share losses and hacking pricing to merely slow the bloodletting. Component pricing and manufacturing costs are constantly improving. In fact, the market share upsides for iPhone and Mac are truly mindboggling. I may have to sell the car yet!

Will Apple's Q1 2009 Revenue Estimates Be a Blowout?

nice job...but where is the defense of those huge iPhone numbers. Given the 2million channel fill last q, pent up demand due the emptying of first gen iPhones from the channel, and the usual apple early adopters, the terrible consumer environment, and the reduced rollout to new countries, the fact that the new countries are smaller, leads me to suggest a sequential drop to very moderate increase in iPhones is in order. How do you justify your number overcoming these factors?

Apple Hype Priced In - Stop Trading! (6/9/08)

Will the new business model mean appl declares all iPhone revenue for the quarter vs. the 1 24th in the old model. If so, that coupled with the lower price and 70 countries could mean a huge earnings boost. The earnings from last years 1 24th start hitting now as well.

Note, Citi and Lehman have raised estimates this morning!