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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • NRG Will Buck Natural Gas Glut [View article]
    even with the solar new construction solar makes up a pretty small % of capacity. And they even sold 49% of aqua caliente to brka.
    Lower nat gas benefits the retail business which is about a 1/3 of ebitda.
    Jan 26, 2012. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NRG Will Buck Natural Gas Glut [View article]
    US net capacity:
    46% gas 11,090 mw
    31% coal 8,305 mw
    16% Oil 4,015 mw
    5% nuclear 1,175 mw
    2% renewable (Solar 70 mw current + 1490 mw) 450 mw wind
    TOTAL 25,105 MW
    Ramping up on renewables in next 2 years along with gas fired. Under construction 555 mw Nat gas 935 mw Solar total 1490 mw.

    Future opportunities in conventional gas 2- 3 additional plants.
    The hope is that the price of solar panels and installation is plummetting making for more attractive returns over time.
    Record low nat gas is pressuring spark and dark spreads. I think coal and nuclear under pressure. NRG has some counter cyclical gas plants to absorb some of this pressure not all.

    NRG has done a real pitiful job of executing the share buyback program at much higher prices and there has been little to no insider buying eventhough mgt made a strong starement saying how much the stock traded below intrinsic value. Mgt is losing credibility fast if they do not act.
    Jan 25, 2012. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    <<TEF has 79B in debt vs. income after taxes of 13B>>
    Unfortunately the mgt of this company appears to be trained in the Bernank bubble school of economics. Carrying this enormous amount of debt is high risk. There is nothing guaranteed that those cashflows will hold up. These imbeciles need to cut that enormous debt in half over the next 5 years.
    Jan 25, 2012. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    I initiailly underestimated the "Bernank", but never again. As long as he can print money and not answer to someone he will find a way to monetize the debts to keep the bloated indebted system afloat. He may even succeed in powering inflation into the double digits.

    The guy (Bernank) is a complete serial money printing addict. As long as the world allows him to do it then he will. However be prepared for that day when our emerging market competitors do a currency pearl harbor on us. Gold and silver will look real good.
    Jan 25, 2012. 05:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    hey bren when you think tef going to bite the bullet and address their massive debt issue. yes they did cut the dividend but is it enough.
    value investors have been burned with this one.
    when they seriously address the debt issue and cut the dividend in half again i am in.
    Jan 25, 2012. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    jack, you are right the UK is real sick puppy and will come into focus at some point. The UK is heavily indebted and massively reliant on the financial sector for economic activity.
    The pound has dropped more against the dollar than the euro vs the dollar.
    Jan 25, 2012. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    <<<This is where the Republican party is headed down the wrong path. We shouldn't be focusing on our debt until we have established strong growth in our GDP. Then we can afford to pay down the debt. Of course, many think that is a backward way of doing things. I think they are wrong. Just my opinion.>>
    Dude we better stop printing dollars like an addict or else the developing economies will move more quickly away from the dollar. Then what? Can't u see the handwriting on the wall? It is coming. As soon as the emerging economies feel they can do without us then BANG.
    There has to be some kind of balance between printing and cutting but imo as long as this broken crony democracy continues to live we never will get there.
    Jan 25, 2012. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF To Germany: Europe Is On Course For Disaster [View article]
    <<According to the IMF, unless Europe undertakes a drastic reversal of policy - from austerity to stimulus - a 1930s style economic depression will be the result.>> Duuuhhh of course the IMF backed by the central banksters wants them to print money to inflate their way out of this mess.
    If not many will be pressing for some sort of gold standard making the CBers less important.
    There is no easy way out of a solvency problem. There has to be losers from the varied course of actions taken.
    Jan 25, 2012. 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Bubble Makes Schlumberger An Attractive Contrarian Play [View article]
    it does make sense to wait and see if slb falls into value territory. a market sell off and/or a hit to oil could send this one down in the 60's. a better margin at that level.
    read the transcript and not a mention of free cashflow. spoke of the divie increase cap ex (quite large for 2012), pension contributons and prospects. would of liked to know the cashflows.
    overall a technology leader in the oil service sector.
    Jan 24, 2012. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Fuel Gas: Multiple Fingers In The Natural Gas Pie [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    a start
    Jan 22, 2012. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Looks Good But Do Your Research [View article]
    nrg has been getting hammered down, but offer some value as it has a diversified portfiolio of baseload (coal and nuclear), peaking and mid merit assets and retail. nrg has a fairly substaintial counter cyclical busness to help offset falling gas prices. also they are building some contracted businesses in solar and a CA gas fired plant.
    Jan 19, 2012. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mom's Portfolio: A Simple Recipe For Retirement Income [View article]
    Jean, dividend stocks do not just go one way, up, they can fall so do be prepared to endure 20% corrections.
    These are unusual times since many countries are or near bankrupt including the USA.
    Jan 19, 2012. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunities From The Crash In Natural Gas [View article]
    The future will look brighter for ng.

    1. The cng filling station infrastructure for heavy duty trucks will be built out enough to support coast to coast transportation by 2013. Orders are ramping up for heavy duty cng trucks.

    2. Several LNG export facilities will be built by 2016.

    3. Additional Chemical and mfg plants will be popping up or fuel switching in current plants

    4. Additional NG power plants are coming on line the next 3 years.

    The ng e & P industry is run by some idiots who have no discipline, but a $2 ng price will break them and send them into oblivion as they deserve.

    best ways to play would be to invest in those cos that are gaining in oil production but still have a nice weighting in ng. the first that comes to mind is dvn.
    Jan 19, 2012. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: Good Dividend, Great Growth, Young Deep Sea Drilling Fleet [View article]
    This is probably the best driller, BUT it does bother me that the pound has fallen more against the dollar than the euro against the dollar. The reason, the UK is a total basketcase levered to the scalp and its economy is highly reliant on the financial sector. In fact england is more levered than some of the basketcase euro countries. Being in control of the printing presses does help short term but long term the bullseye will be on the UK.
    How would a collapsing pound impact the value of esv stock?
    Jan 18, 2012. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $2 Billion Deal With Total The Latest Update For The Chesapeake Energy Joint-Venture Scorecard [View article]
    with Am pulling the gas hedges for 2012 it appears chk is following ng down. the guy just can't help himself to gambling.
    the market has always placed a discount on the shares due to poor operational mgt of this company. once again the market has been proven right.
    At this point he probably will have to sell one of the plays to fund the massive cap ex budget for 2012. would hope he would sell the least attractive play and finally once and for all paydown the credit line in full and fund the cap ex.
    Can they do an even more extreme shift toward oil plays and dropping ng rigs.
    Jan 17, 2012. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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