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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • Bruce Berkowitz In Good Company As An Owner Of MBIA [View article]
    Hey Tom u think we may be getting close to a settlement? Can u put any range of numbers on this settlement and what it may mean to mbi's value? thanks
    Nov 29, 2011. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Avoiding Auto Giant After Quick Look Under The Hood [View article]
    the next sharp down draft in gm stock will make for a tempting entry.
    people need cars to go to work and the age of the fleet is growing old rapidly. Houses have become less important as they will probably not go up for years as escalating cost of living increases offset any potental house appreciation.
    Nov 29, 2011. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: My Favorite 2012 Dividend Stock Idea [View article]
    BHS, Cramer in early 2000 or late 1999 was suggesting that the tobacco cos. were going bankrupt. MO (Pre-split) went down to about 20 or so at the time. Cramer is smart guy and has improved over the years but he is flip flopper not an investor.
    Do not get all excited with PM as it makes new highs. It is not going to grow at 20% a year eps. It is not apple but is a reasonably growing company with global presence and a long term hold. Buy on dips. Do not get excited when it hits highs.
    I have invested all dividends into MO (Pre-Split too), PM, KFT for years and the dividend flows off these stocks are massive. Boooyaaa.
    Nov 29, 2011. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aerospace and Defense Stocks: Beaten Down, With Healthy Free Cash Flow, 3%-Plus Dividends [View article]
    Is it time to get in now? sai looking real cheap. cyberwarfare an area that will resist budget cuts.
    Nov 29, 2011. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Ternium Convert [View article]
    TX has just collapsed. Ouch. Why has TS held up better?

    Do like the no stock options. To many pigs (mgts) grubbing at the trough in many other cos.
    Nov 29, 2011. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: My Favorite 2012 Dividend Stock Idea [View article]
    Thanks Todd but I have to admit I missed buying the motherload in MCD at $12 in '02. Crap like this will not happen again. I was waiting for $10??? hehehe
    Keep some powder dry if things tank u can cherry pick some buys at lower prices.
    Nov 28, 2011. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Portfolio Ready For The 'Great Deleveraging?' [View article]
    What?
    $15 trillion in total fed debts does not include Fannie Freddie and FHA Scams. Where are the arrests when it comes to fannie and freddie?

    Just wait when they want to unwind fannie and freddie. Some sweet deals at 0.20 on the dollar to the crony capitalists.
    Nov 28, 2011. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: My Favorite 2012 Dividend Stock Idea [View article]
    I was adding aggressively to "MO" + (later) PM + KFT when cramer was saying it was going bankrupt and slim was loading up too. It was not easy at the time at near 10% yield but boyaaaaaaa. With dividend reinvestment and the rock bottom share price, believe it is up something like 3 times in about 10 years. Also in 2009 PM fell to 32 -35 great time to buuuuuuyaaaa. Really like PM but I wish they would stop leveraging up the balance sheet to buy back shares. It is time to live within the fcf now. Also the p/e is getting to the upper end of the range. Great long term buy on weakness.
    Nov 28, 2011. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Pepper Snapple: Screaming Bargain No Longer, But Hardly Expensive (And Still Sweet) [View article]
    <<FYI TEF's dividend is covered by free cash flow.>>

    yes but this sort of the same argument these bubblehead realtors are talking about housing affordability. As long as rates stay near lows or record lows its ok, but if TEF's financing costs rise then good bye div.
    why not keep fcf payouts to 65%? and be realistic by paying down some of the debts to prudent levels? <<If not, then put the righteous indignation on hold.>>Hey value I am going to be a nice guy and offer u up a platter...take a look at coswf if u truly are a cranky value investor.
    Nov 28, 2011. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Portfolio Ready For The 'Great Deleveraging?' [View article]
    Yes 8200 tonnes is significant because it is by far the largest gold holding in the world. You can't print gold. I hope we own it.
    Maybe 1400 worth. well maybe gold is underpriced in diluted printed dollars. You ever think of that?

    I am quite neg on the Dollar and fed govt debt bubble BUT the USA has LOTS and LOTS of resources most countries wished they had unfortunately crony capitalism has raped and pillaged. We need a reset to replace this Broken democracy. Even Bwarney Fwank sees the handwriting on the wall. F%$#en Bum.
    Nov 28, 2011. 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Portfolio Ready For The 'Great Deleveraging?' [View article]
    Several points would like to make
    1. We are at 350% total debt to gdp, in 1933 this number was 270% but gdp collapsed over 25%. Consumer debts are falling, but govt debts are going parabolic. Net net debt is still increasing. Boyaaaa.
    2. Operating profits are at or near record levels. mean reversion
    3. Govt spending $3.7 trillion collecting 2.3 trillion. Cannot work for to much longer
    4. Fannie and Freddie/FHA support the majority of home purchases. How much longer can this scheme last?
    5. Treasury bonds are priced for perfection. When reality hits rates go up while interest expense on the debts spiral upwards. 2.88% avg rate on debts. In 2001 it was 6.06%. At this interest rates interest expense on the debt would be over $900 bil or nearly 40% of collections. Bernank will print until the bitter end until the markets shut him down.
    6. Gold will play an important role in global currencies. Russia China India Brazil CBs scooping up gold. I hope the USA has its 8200 tonnes of gold.
    Nov 28, 2011. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Germans About To Launch Bomb Within Heart Of Europe [View article]
    Yeah one has to watch everything they say today. Even a neighbor is insulted when I tell him his house is not worth what he thinks it is worth.

    No doubt if germany stays there will have to be money printing along with some haircus as a solution.
    The sharp rally today is nomore than a short covering rally since shorts were all in.
    Nov 28, 2011. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winn-Dixie: Where Has All The Money Gone? [View article]
    The grocery segment has become crowded as walmart and tgt moved into some groceries along with costco and the other larger grocers. It appears winn will have to spend everything they make to keep this thing afloat and competitive. A value trap?
    svu is indebted but has a better chance of making it imo.
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Pepper Snapple: Screaming Bargain No Longer, But Hardly Expensive (And Still Sweet) [View article]
    <<There is some real ignorance on display here. >>
    Hello. I said CADBURY sold off most of DPS's international rights before spinning them off.

    <<or is this new massive buyback just another ploy to go into more debt >> Cadbury stuck them with debts after spinoff and dps paid some debt down, BUT the size of the current buyback can not be covered in a year or two or even three based on the level of fcf. What some cos do to maintain eps growth is to go into debt to buyback shares.
    Hey just look at TEF a company leveraged to the scalp paying out a div that is not sustainable.

    Maybe u should read a little more carefully before making such statements
    Nov 28, 2011. 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Pepper Snapple: Screaming Bargain No Longer, But Hardly Expensive (And Still Sweet) [View article]
    Cadbury sold most of their international rights away. I believe they do have some potential in Mexico and Canada.
    Nov 27, 2011. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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