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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • Avon Products: Dividend, Earnings And Valuation Analysis [View article]
    <Avon Products is currently trading at a P/E of 11.2,>
    This is not accurate.

    The dividend payout ratio is 77%.
    Between the current div, cap ex there is no fcf left to do anything.

    The company has more debt than they should and have some pension liabilities. The new manager would be smart to drop the dividend to 0.60.
    The company has been mismanaged for sometime and the board kept the past leader as chairman which is very highly questionable judgment. I think it is terrible judgment and an insult to long term shareholders which i am not. Why is it that tup is doing so much better?
    Mar 9, 2012. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • February ADP Employment Report: Recovery Trend Picking Up Momentum [View article]
    does this report breakout full time vs part time hiring?

    Part time jobs are better than nothing but unfortunately lacking health benefits eat terribly into disposable income when private health plans are increasing at double digit annual rates.
    20-30 years ago employees were afforded health and pension plans in most cases did not have to contribute. Today the employee is burdened with funding a major portion of health plans and a good chunk of 401k. Disposable incomes will never support a pick up in asset prices in which this serial printing lunatic the Bernank is so desperately pushing.
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Consumer Credit: +$17.78B, well above expected +$11B. Non-revolving debt (student loans, car and personal loans) led, up $20.7B, while revolving debt (credit cards) fell $2.9B.  [View news story]
    A drunk does not turn down booze.

    why would a homedebtor turn down more credit they cannot afford? or students who will eventually be looking for some bailout like the rest of the bloodsucking public.
    Sub-prime Car loans and FHA 3% down loans being giving out like candy. Hey lets run up some more defaulting loans. FHA will need more funding shortly.

    Dollar Collapse (Devaluation) is coming it just takes time for the world to prepare for the day of dollar rejection.
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Uncharacteristic Misstep [View article]
    paulo any ipp or reg utts which have nat gas exposure look of interest to you?
    Mar 7, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Continues To Defend Its Recession Call [View article]
    <<Household debt service plus government debt service to GDP
    is lowest in 30 years....>>

    why is that Bro? Ya think the artificial manipulation of the yield curve by the fed has anything to do with it.

    More and more debt is being rolled over in a shorter and shorter time frame, so when rates do start to surge interest expense will build more rapidly. The Lowest interest rates ever and they shorten maturities. It seems more like an act of desperation.
    Mar 6, 2012. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Philip Morris Is Our Favorite Tobacco Stock [View article]
    PM great company and made absolute fortune on this company over the years ( mo and kft too) BUT it is getting pricey on historical basis. Same with kft and mo. would not add new money. wait for market correction imo.
    Feb 28, 2012. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
    WMDs the derivative mess and counterparty failing could be the big event. A matter of time before the derivative dominoes start to fall.

    Another data point.
    <<WASHINGTON, D.C. – Feb. 23, 2012 – The Association of American Railroads (http://bit.ly/zwz5Dk) today reported a decline in weekly rail traffic for the week ending February 18, 2012, with U.S. railroads originating 281,989 carloads, down 5.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 221,003 trailers and containers, down 5.6 percent compared with the same week last year.>>

    A few other things;

    Energy prices especially high gasoline prices will have a fairly big impact on consumer spending.

    Operating margins are at record levels. How long can this hold? Basing valuation on p/e ratio can be RISKY.

    Alot of my dividend plays i have held for many years are scraping historically high valuations. I would not be buying some of these stocks.
    Feb 26, 2012. 11:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Is Selling Underperforming Stores ... Not [View article]
    Problem is alot of u deep value guys bought at inflated prices. And to call self liquidation profitable is far from the truth.
    When this economy goes back into recession so goes more self liquidation to cover the cash burn.
    Feb 25, 2012. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Into Telefonica's Valuation [View article]
    <<<Profitability based on operating income before depreciation and amortization, or Oibda, fell to 32.2 percent in 2011 from 42.4 percent, Madrid-based Telefonica said in a statement today. The decline will continue this year, although at a slower rate, the company said.>>
    Good work diesel. I have avoided this dogmeat for sometime while many smart value investors getting Killed.
    Margins collapsing and massive debts = big problem. This is why you don't lever up a company to the gills just becasue u have the cashflows! Cashflows are NOT guaranteed.
    Feb 24, 2012. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Peak Cheap Oil: Looking For Yield And Growth In The Canadian Oil Sands [View article]
    Global demand is 90 mil barrels per day now. It was something like 85-86 mil a day in 2008.
    Feb 22, 2012. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Gem Of Opportunity For Investors? [View article]
    <<The bottom line is that these low valuations will not last forever and investors should use them as a buying opportunity!>>>

    Basing how cheap a market is on p/e multiple especially when operating margins are at record territory is risky business in my opinion.
    Interest rates and rising prices of things are going to pressure input prices and squeeze margins. Also as wages in China continue to march higher this could cause some wage inflation in the future.

    What about falling deficit spending which has been a stimulus or should I say market induced falling govt spending.

    Good luck but the economy could be facing massive headwinds for years to come.

    Lets get this straight I am not saying this markert is way overpriced like 2000, but we face a sovereign debt situation in the not to distant future and the headwinds of higher rates and higher prices.
    Feb 22, 2012. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Could Surpass $150 A Barrel [View article]
    If oil goes to 150 I am going to make a lot of money BUT the economy is going to collapse.
    The poor, retirees and the middle class are in for a world of hurt when prices of necessities really ramp up.
    Say good bye to the bloated american standard of living.
    Feb 22, 2012. 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Existing Home Sales: +4.3% to 4.57M vs. 4.69M expected, 4.38M (revised) prior. Total housing inventory fell 0.4% to 2.31M existing homes for sale, representing a 6.1-month supply.  [View news story]
    <<DJI was at 6500 20 days after he (Obama) took office, it is now approaching 13000. If my Calculus teacher was right, that is a 100% increase in stocks since then. I'll take that track record any day of the year.>>

    What about the record of adding 4-5 Triillion in debts?

    What about MF Global?

    What about 3.5% FHA loans continuing to this day?

    What about NO Arrests for damn anything?

    The guy is one big phoney. He was preachig to bush the big spender about racking up debts and hurting future genrations but this Record setting spender can't do enough for his RICH buddies to bail them out.
    Pathetic.
    You can quote me: If Ron Paul does not win the Presidency prepare for USA disaster. Even if he wins it will be pretty tough.

    As for housing market it is totally manipulated by the corrupt policies of US govt and the RE complex which has no credibility whatsoever. The NAR specifically and the banksters.
    Feb 22, 2012. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Existing Home Sales: +4.3% to 4.57M vs. 4.69M expected, 4.38M (revised) prior. Total housing inventory fell 0.4% to 2.31M existing homes for sale, representing a 6.1-month supply.  [View news story]
    Total housjng inventory is a farce. So many homes sitting in pre-foreclosure not to be foreclosed on for years. The re system is a fraud.
    Feb 22, 2012. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flag: Market Sentiment [View article]
    Higher gas prices will be taking a toll on disposable income. And the bond and dollar bubble will pop at some point and put added pressures in the form of higher interest rates with financial system so levered this could really hurt.
    Traditional tech analysis does not work cuz computers are generating much of the volume, but I do believe their algos factor in tech resistant and support levels.
    Feb 21, 2012. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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