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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • Now's The Time To Get Back Into Real Estate [View article]
    Where your wrong danny is that incomes (real have been flat to down for a few decades. The unions had wage power in the 60's and 70's so incomes grew as fast or faster than inflation. Today our standard of living is falling and will continue to fall as incomes do not keep up with the cost of living and cheap energy is long gone.
    Housing will not keep pace with inflation and as one of the posters said some areas of the country are still overbloated and overpriced. Some areas have come down to fair values but many remain ovepriced.
    Dec 21, 2011. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
    James should start writing press releases for the Fed reserve and the Bernank.

    Hey james I have been real worried about our levered to the scalp financial system, but you are starting to make me feel a little bullish.
    Dec 21, 2011. 02:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BI-LO will acquire all the outstanding shares of Winn-Dixie (WINN) for $9.50/share, a ~75% premium over Winn-Dixie's closing price on Friday. The merged company will have approximately 690 stores and 63,000 employees. (PR)  [View news story]
    Lone star thinks they got a bargain? Congrats to winn shareholders for finding a bagholder.
    Dec 19, 2011. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Word that BofA (BAC -4.8%) trades below $5 could test the mettle of value investor Warren Buffett as his paper loss on warrants pushes over $1B - presumably a big number even for the Oracle. But cushioning the blow for Buffett will be the $300M in dividends he rakes annually no matter how far down into the abysss BAC falls. [View news story]
    buffett warned and warned of WMD's how it was near impossible to unwind the modest derivative book at gen re but he goes in on these TBTF financials whom have massive book of illiquid derivatives. will buffett finally take a big hit on one of his financial investments?
    Dec 19, 2011. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco: A Value Priced, Dominant Global Energy Capital Equipment Supplier [View article]
    Thanks for the great article. slb would be another interesting investment in the low $50's.
    Dec 19, 2011. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Tebow, Social Mood And The Future Of U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Many Americans are clueless to the serious debt situation and do not even bother to vote. When the sovereign crisis moves in our direction maybe the US as a whole needs to be broken to its knees to change this me me me type attitude that dominates the country.
    Dec 19, 2011. 06:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Italian Stocks: Weighing Risk Vs. World's Biggest Bargain [View article]
    My mistake on the etf. If there is a CEF and the discout is massive, it may make sense, but the tax withholding is pretty brutal on the high dividend payers.
    Definatley when the final SHTF in europe I am building a list of European opportunties to pounce on.
    Dec 18, 2011. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Highest Yielding Stocks In Bruce Berkowitz's Portfolio [View article]
    Another example (TEF) of stooge mgt leveraging up to the scalp with little margin of safety. $71 bil in debt???? These idiots need to cut the dividend by 75% and start paying down this outrageous debt level.
    Where do these stooges get trained? Shareholders should dump the reckless mgt.
    Dec 18, 2011. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Italian Stocks: Weighing Risk Vs. World's Biggest Bargain [View article]
    You failed to address the discount to NAV? Hello?
    Dec 18, 2011. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing [View article]
    1. Hello??? The avg interest rate on the current fed debt is 2.96% a record LOW.

    Rates ONLY have to revert back to normal: avg rate of 5.5-6% on our debts and interest expense will consumer over 36% of current tax receipts. This is at current debt levels and we will easily be breaking 20 bil in debts in about 5 years.

    2. The US does have the Fed FOR NOW? what happens when Euro mess is over. Then the USA faces a crisis. Fed actions will be challenged by market forces.

    3. <<Grantham has been hugely wrong on margins for years.>> Back that one up.
    We do not need to revert back 30 years ago. Margins were less in the last 10. Margins are at record levels and I say this is unsustainable as commodity prices especially of energy remain strong going forward. Pricing flexibility will be hindered by lack of income growth. Price increases of finished goods cannot be fully passed onto the consumer.

    4. We disagree again. since I believe high inflation is coming back, the USA will face a sovereign crisis and interest rates are going up in the not to distant future, P/e's could be under pressure and the equity markets can undershoot to the downside.

    5. WE DISAGREE AGAIN. The clock is ticking away against the USA. Once Euro crisis is past the peak, the focus will be on the wild deficit spending going on in the USA. The US will have a bullseye on its back.
    Dec 17, 2011. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Margin Squeeze: New Update [View article]
    doug good stuff, but is cpi of 1974 the same measurement as the cpi of 2011?
    can you do a breakdown of inputs for cpi 1970's vs cpi 2011?
    I know shadowstats does this but alot do not believe him or pay attention. Another person confirming such may be helpful. thanks
    Dec 17, 2011. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In addition to France, Fitch also places Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and Cyrus on negative watch. "Fitch has concluded a 'comprehensive solution' to the euro crisis is technically and politically beyond reach."  [View news story]
    GOLD.
    Dec 17, 2011. 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan Is On Sale Again [View article]
    fcx is a very cyclical stock that can get obliterated in a recession. If copper were to tumble, Low $20's is a possibility. Many energy stocks (mostly oil-cuz nat gas is at lows) are already anticipating lower prices as is fcx. Remember quite clearly one known expert was pumping fcx as a backdoor way to play gold. I had a good laugh cuz when things slow or a whiff of recession is in the air these stocks get obliterated. The share price was $88 at the time. Glad i did not bite. This is a good company.
    Dec 17, 2011. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing [View article]
    A few things:
    1. US fed debts are exploding upwards. If rates backed up 2-3 % off the avg rates of the debts at 2.96% we are in same predicament as Italy. At current debt levels and a 6% avg interest rates our interest expense would be over $900 bil+ or 36% of tax receipts. Also debt expansion on fed debts are growing much faster than gdp.
    Once the euro crisis is dealt with including France and UK, then the bullseye is on the USA. Eventually higher interest rates on US debts will put pressure on p/e ratios.

    2. Operating margins are at historic highs. What about reversion to the mean as Grantham suggests? This may just impact earnings.

    3. <<my target for the S&P 500 (SPX) is only in the 950-1,020 range and not lower>>
    Why fall to these levels? Is it long term support on the charts or is it fair valuation as suggested by Grantham or what?

    4. Euro and US will be facing sovereign debt issues which imo is much more serious than a banking/shadow banking issue. Who is going to bailout the USA?

    5. Holding some cash is not a bad idea for the short term in order to wait for attractive opportunities in crisis/panic. Probably best in a fdic savings account.
    Dec 17, 2011. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nestle: Global Blue Chip That Continues to Share the Wealth With Shareholders [View article]
    Hey ken,

    would you mind sharing the p/e ratio on the adr shares and the payout ratio?
    One should not hold nsrgy in a retirement account. You cannot apply for the tax credit form 1116.
    Dec 16, 2011. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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