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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • Walgreen Offers A Serious Buying Opportunity [View article]
    What about competition from walmart and costco? Noticed prices are a higher in cvs and wag compared to wmt and cost.
    Nov 16, 2011. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bruce Berkowitz In Good Company As An Owner Of MBIA [View article]
    Hey Tom, this one could be severely mispriced but housing imo has more downside especially in the lofty areas of the country due to stalled foreclosures for several years in which prices have not taken much of a hit yet.

    Any updates on this
    <<And in terms of an immediate catalyst, keep an eye on the legal situation in court, which as we discussed previously is poised to make a decision on whether the Article 77 status of the settlement is to be unwound by pushing the case to Federal court (discussed here), and the outcome will be known within a few weeks (as summarized by Reuters). Should the case go "federal" it will be a huge win for MBIA and plaintiffs>> from zerohedge
    Nov 15, 2011. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Buybacks Destroy Shareholder Value? [View article]
    Crony capitalism handout stock options like candy no matter how poorly the bums perform. And usually management screws up the stock price crumbles and the board conveniently approves stock option grants at or near the lows.
    In many cases stock is bought back at high levels, then you hear the same excuses by mgt,"In hindsight who knows". BS excuse.
    In the case of dell's $5 bil buyback, it is something like 25% of outstanding shares. Do not know how generous stock option grants are at the company but grants should be limited to NO more than 1% of outstanding shares in any year and it should not be a guaranteed issuance every year if performance sucks. It would be nice to see companies give 0 options out in a year of poor performance. I vote against all stock option plans.
    Nov 14, 2011. 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Avoiding Auto Giant After Quick Look Under The Hood [View article]
    I do agree GM is a reasonable value here, but pointing out some weaknesses. If it approaches lows again wil seriously consider. Also have to factor in the Pref shares that come due 2014. $5.5 bil held by Canadian govt.
    The talk of any substantial dividend is called denial until they get the pension reduced and take care of the pref b shares in 2014.
    I believe this year and next dep will lag cap ex.

    Can't get any answers for cap ex maintenance? what is cap ex maintenance?
    Also I believe R&D spending is something like $15 billion for the year. I am sure they can reduce this number over time.

    To do $5 bil in fcf with $7 bil cap x need $12 bil in op cashflow is this doable in the near term with europe crumbling, China on the verge of a weak patch and America near or in recession depending what indicators looking at.
    The cap ex for 2011 will be aprrox 6.5 - $7 bil. I do not think OP cashflow is going to be over $10 bil this year.
    I believe runrate for cap ex will be $7 bil in 2012. I wonder if the Pref B 4.75 shares are better buy in low $30's. convert dec 2013 are varying strike prices.
    Nov 11, 2011. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Avoiding Auto Giant After Quick Look Under The Hood [View article]
    GM has something like 13% market share in China so they are doing quite well, but this underfunded pension of $27.5 bil needs to be taken care of. They are making progress but this is big nut.

    Blecker how much fcf gm make after the $7 bil in cap ex?
    Please break it out. GM has little if any tang book value too, so any talk of dividends is non-sense at this point until they get a good chunk of cap ex expansion paid for and pension liabilities along with the Pref shares.

    The Op cashflow was somewhat weak at $6.7 bil for 9 months. Blecker what are your year end estimates for OP Cashflow?

    GM and Ford cars are much improved. Unions were the big problem in the past with their greed. with markets forcing the Unions to take concessions I hope they do not get back to their greedy ways again. Shareholders have been slaughtered in these cos and deserve better.
    Nov 11, 2011. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Avoiding Auto Giant After Quick Look Under The Hood [View article]
    No all is good at GM.
    the op cashflow was off this year vs last at $6.7 bil for 9 months and cap ex is running about $7 bil for year. a little fcf light this year? and next year as cap ex should be in that range for '12.
    <<pension liabilities have been reduced from $31.2 billion to $27.5 billion.>> It is underfunded by $27.5 bil ? If this is the case a pretty big number since they assume a 8% asset return.

    cash position is fairly strong at $33 bil but the st & lt debts are about $4.2 bil and the pref a shares are $5.5 bil for $9.7bil.
    Nov 10, 2011. 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York City Home Prices Are Headed for Collapse [View article]
    U definately should work for the NAR. U would make a nice fit.

    It's always a great time to buy and sell. Anyone remmeber this one . LOL!!!!!!!!!

    Take a look at this and make sure your mouth is empty.
    http://bit.ly/uc4xFT
    http://bit.ly/vFuXHs

    Fannie needs another $8 billion! Yippee. How much u think FHA will need in a few years?
    Nov 9, 2011. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Economic Confidence [View article]
    That gold will be snapped up quickly by china india and other countries looking to diversify out of paper. The tide is turning and sentiment is shifting around the globe toward gold. Gold is the real currency. It would be idiotic for Italy to sell its gold.
    Hopefully we own all our 8200 tonnes here.
    Nov 8, 2011. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Economic Confidence [View article]
    PM shares will rocket as investors get more comfortable that pm prices are going to hold as these higher levels. any sharp pullback would be good time to add.
    Nov 8, 2011. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York City Home Prices Are Headed for Collapse [View article]
    <While their methods are quite cuthroat > a generous depiction.

    <<putting their personal lives on hold in fear of a massive price collapse>>
    Putting your life on hold is not owning a house??? Give me a Friggen break. Buying a house has been a nightmare for many. So putting your so called life on hold to not purchase a house would have been the wisest decision. Housing is overrated as an economic engine and a cash drain for USA.
    Our country has lost more on housing than we have gained. just look at the trillions in losses and the Massive blackhole in Fannie Freddie and now FHA piggy banks. Disgraceful.
    Nov 8, 2011. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York City Home Prices Are Headed for Collapse [View article]
    waldi u must be scalp deep into N Queens real estate. well good luck to you. Calling on Keith to get the facts out on the so called armor plated N Queens. It will not be immune from the coming tsunami that has been held in check for over 3 years as the foreclsoures marketplace has been completely frozen in the NYC metro area.
    The best buys in re were back in the early to mid 90's when pricing was allowed to clear the marketplace. I would get listings directly from banks and did not have to deal with scum rewhores who totally manipulate the markets and are good for nothing anyway.
    Nov 7, 2011. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York City Home Prices Are Headed for Collapse [View article]
    Blah blah blah. The so called premo areas are going to fall now as this depression starts impacting even the wealthy. The best stocks the best high priced re areas are usually the last to fall in all these bubble implosions.
    It's worth every penny cuz u say so? Not. Just about every friggen homeowner thinks their house is the best when they are selling it. It is called DENIAL my friend. Once the USA finally faces the music, the license to print money out of thin air is taken away, then shtf big time in real estate. RE is a bloated subsidized industry which needs to be taken off the food stamps and stand on its own.
    Nov 6, 2011. 09:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake And McClendon Continue To Walk The Walk [View article]
    This company needs to end its empire building soon and bring in a great operator of these properties to max freecashflow.
    Nov 4, 2011. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York City Home Prices Are Headed for Collapse [View article]
    Offer less than $240K. Asking means nothing in this marketplace. From what i have heard, NYC metro market place is in the midst of downturn now as the foreclosures held off the market for 2-3 + years are in the pike ready to hit. The NYC mtetro marketplace has held up better than most regions of the country but it will now play catchup with all the other downtrodden areas. Some are expecting another 20% downdraft in NYC metro area to play catchup to fundamentals.
    Nov 4, 2011. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beer, Wine Or Whiskey? There's A Lot To Like About Alcohol Stocks [View article]
    I am wondering if TAP will soon attract some buyout activity looking at the nice fcf's and reasonable balance sheet.
    2011 fcf is estimated at $750 mil + or - 10%. So lets say with the weaker guidance it is around $700 mil.
    would u buy the entire company at the going price? Another buck or two lower will entice me to hit the purchase trigger.
    Nov 3, 2011. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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