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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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  • Misleading Payout Ratios In International Telecommunications Stocks [View article]
    AC excellent article. This is how I looked at tef sometime ago and was bothered by the huge debt levels and the lack of urgency to reduce it. If tef showed some sort of inclination to reduce debt i would get more excited about this stock. Paying out a div is nice but doing it responsibly is most important. A number of value investors have been clobbered on this one.
    Own vod and did same anaylsis. It is tough to figure cap ex maint vs cap ex growth in telecom. IMO both cap ex's should be ncluded cuz of the constant need to update technology capabilities. In the case of vod the fcf is still quite attractive.

    what is the tax withholding for tef?
    I know vod does not withhold anything which is nice except a small adr fee.
    Will be revisiting tef again in hopes to see some debt reductions.
    Mar 12, 2012. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Employment Recovery Is Real [View article]
    AP you are the one that is sloppy since you think that intragovernemntal debt (About $4.6 tril) does not matter. So lets default on these treasuries held by social security? Then what social security goes deeper into the red and bigger cuts are necessary. One way or another we are going to pay NO free lunches.
    Mar 12, 2012. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    OP the price of a Chevy Malibu 1980 $5,500 Today $25K.

    No inflation?

    Parents house approx value 1980 $80k
    Today probably $425-450K
    Property taxes 1980 2,700 Today $11K

    Gold and silver have played catchup for the 30 year dormancy.

    Another thing that these putzes cannot explain away is why is Germany and Switzerland so concerned about their gold stashes held overseas???

    Second biggest money printer of all.

    Alan Greenspan Aug 2011
    “Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency,” he told attendees at a conference in Washington D.C. on August 23, saying he did not think the precious metal was in a bubble despite recently reaching a new record above $1900. And a flight to safety amid inflation fears is what’s causing soaring gold prices.

    “The major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry,” Greenspan explained. “It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.”
    Mar 12, 2012. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telefonica: Rare Opportunity To Purchase A Global Telecom Player At A Discount [View article]
    no mention of the massive debts.
    <<operating income before depreciation and amortization (OIBDA) margins fell 10.3 percentage points to just 32.2%.>>

    Recipe for disaster massive debts and falling cashflows
    Mar 12, 2012. 06:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    Gold and Economic Freedom

    by Alan Greenspan


    In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

    This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.


    ----------------------...
    And Greenspan's ego got the best of him.
    Mar 11, 2012. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    Gold and Economic Freedom

    by Alan Greenspan

    When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.
    With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form — from a growing number of welfare-state advocates — was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.
    Mar 11, 2012. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    Gold and Economic Freedom

    by Alan Greenspan


    Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth. When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one — so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.
    Mar 11, 2012. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    <<China opening up essentially doubled the world's workforce. Globalization has perhaps doubled it again. The workforce doubling means labor is 1/2 the price all things being equal, which they are not because...>>

    Albeit at a low rate wages in China are accelerating upwards. A few cos I track and mfg in china have stated wage gains of 25-35% and this to continue into the future.
    As for gasoline and oil i guess u see no inflation there either as extraction costs esclate upwards and the floor on oil price continues to rise.

    <<<p wondering when the Gold Bubble will burst and it will drop back to $400 where it belongs.>>>

    Hahaha u are very very misinformed. If it went to 400 I would probably go just about all in on gold.

    WHY? Cuz the all incost to extract GOLD is now appraoching $1000 an ounce. Get informed next time u make such a uninformed comment. As the extraction costs inflate and the easy gold and silver has been found, then the above ground stuff becomes more valuable. Also as this lunatic serial dollar wrecker 'the Bernank" continues his kamakazzee path in dollar terms gold and silver will be the go to place for excess wealth storage.
    Mar 11, 2012. 03:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Silver And Gold: Dr. Bernanke Just Announced 'Sterilized' Money Printing [View article]
    where the hell have you been living for 30 years?
    Gold and silver has been mispriced for sometime and has played catchup. As this fiscal diaster goes from bad to ugly, I expect deficits to continue high and china russia india and brazil to move away from the dollar and promote silver and gold to its citizens.

    Can you explain why Germany and Swiss govts are so concerned about their gold holdings stored in the US?

    Yes I bought a pair of running shoes in 1982 for 85 which would probably go for the same today, but things u use everyday are sky rocketing from 30 years ago.
    How about healthcare premiums going up 20% in one year or houses still priced 5 times higher in my area than 1980. Gasoline and did u look at beef prices recently. I know I know sub with chicken most of the time.

    A midsized car 30 years ago went for about 6k now about 25k+. I went to buy some beer yesterday and noticed the prices have been just readjusted higher again.

    Many Americans have survived the last 30 years even though their real incomes have been falling. The tipping point occurs like the poor people in Egypt or other countries when food and energy consume a greater portion of disposable income. I expect the cost of living to accelerate at a faster pace in the next 5 years as the world rejects dollars and those dollars come rushing home and drive inflation.
    Mar 11, 2012. 01:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Medtronic [View article]
    good stuff jeremy. Curious which healthcare cos face the most delinquencies in europe since there are a bunch of countries in deep fiscal trouble.
    a large % of healthcare spending comes from the govts and with so much fiscal problems it is important imo to find the healthcare cos that can bring efficiencies to the system.
    i think the best one can do with mdt is to wait and see if it trades down near low end of its range buy and then sell when it gets to high end of range. rumors of takeover has surrounded stj for sometime and i missed this one when it hit low end of its trading range. Really liking bdx and the potential for its diagnostics business but is has stalled out here a little short term. bsx appears to be in a turnaround situation with the new mgt in place...watching it.
    Mar 11, 2012. 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Medtronic [View article]
    Ross
    <Health Economics a& Reimbursement.>
    you sat in a very interesting position in healthcare. You probably more than most could see healthcare reimbursement pressures on the device cos.
    As our country's fiscal situation goes from bad to disaster, pressures on healthcare to become more efficient will be main focus.
    I would think unh or wlp in a good position with their extensive data bases to help in these evidenced based propositions?
    any stocks or areas of healthcare interst you?
    Mar 11, 2012. 01:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Employment Recovery Is Real [View article]
    http://bit.ly/xnIA6n
    Mar 10, 2012. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Employment Recovery Is Real [View article]
    AP you have 0 credibility.

    <<Interest is about 200 billion>>

    Here is the interest expense direct link from the govt.
    http://1.usa.gov/qvYMRZ

    First 5 months of 2012 fiscal year $187 billion.

    at record low interest rates
    http://1.usa.gov/yDx6na

    Yes the economy is showing some signs of life out of the abyss, but you can't pile on more debts when we are already leveraged to the scalp. They are leveraging up US govt balance sheet.
    Mar 10, 2012. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avon Products: Dividend, Earnings And Valuation Analysis [View article]
    TUP has a similar business model and they are successful so the direct model with some tweeks invovling the internet should still work at avp. It probably is due to underperforming past management

    Past mgt needs to be removed from the company and same with the board of directors. Then bring in new mgt that will light a fire under the company products and organization.
    Mar 9, 2012. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Employment Recovery Is Real [View article]
    AP Hello is anything up there are u just in DENIAL? U sound exactly like one of those realtors or now homedebtors who could not conceive when i told them that houses were extremwely overpriced in 2004-2005-2006-20...

    Total debts is different than Total Govt debts

    total debts include (corporate, financial, governement and household) The treasury puts out a report and it is 53 trillion/15 trillion = 350%.
    Total US govt debts are 15.5 trillion

    It is in NOSEBLEED territory way way above the Great depression % of 270%.

    So the answer is to increase debts somemore on top of this ponzi debt scheme to keep it going. The insanity continues.

    How much of this newly found growth has anything to do with 1.3 trillion in Govt deficit spending and the new rush to pump out more FHA 3% loans, sub-prime auto loans and fraud student loans????

    There is way wasy way to much debt piled into the system and the only entity that can leverage up in the short term is the fed govt which will being gettign a margin call in the next few years.
    Mar 9, 2012. 05:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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