Seeking Alpha

The_Hammer

The_Hammer
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View The_Hammer's Comments BY TICKER:
AAPL, ABX, ACN, ADBE, ADM, ADP, AEYIF, AFSI, AGG, AGN, AGQ, AIG, AIZ, AMGN, AMSG, AMTX, AMZN, ANCX, ANTM, ANV, ARCB, ARW, ATPAQ, AU, AUY, AVP, AVT, AXLL, BA, BAC, BALT, BBSI, BBY, BDN, BF.B, BH, BIOYF, BKE, BMY, BP, BRFS, BRK.A, BRK.B, BTU, C, CABGY, CCJ, CDE, CDPYF, CEO, CF, CHK, CIMT, CL, CLMT, CLUB, CNA, CNQ, CNX, COST, COSWF, CPG, CRU, CRWS, CSCO, CVS, CVX, DE, DECK, DELL, DEO, DHT, DIA, DLTR, DPS, DRYS, DSX, DUSA, DVN, EAIAF, ECA, EONVF, EOS, EQT, ESV, ETN, EWI, EWP, EWU, EWZ, EXC, EXI, EXM, EZPW, F, FAA, FARM, FCX, FEZ, FIZZ, FLEX, FNJN, FNMA, FOSL, FRI, FSM, FTR, FUR, FXE, FXI, GDX, GE, GG, GGP, GIS, GLD, GLRE, GLW, GM, GNKOQ, GNW, GOOG, GRNB, GS, GTU, HCN, HEINY, HELE, HERO, HH, HHC, HIG, HIMX, HL, HPQ, IAG, IAU, IBA, IBM, IKNX, IMOS, INTC, IPAS, IWM, IYR, IYT, JBLU, JCP, JJG, JMHLY, JNJ, JNK, JNS, JPM, JSHLY, KCG, KEQU, KEX, KGC, KMI, KO, KSU, L, LABL, LEAF, LEHMQ, LO, LOAN, LSTMF, LUK, LULU, LXP, MAT, MBI, MCF, MDLZ, MDT, MHG, MO, MRCBF, MSFT, MU, MUB, MX, MZG, NAT, NBR, NE, NEM, NFG, NFX, NG, NGD, NOV, NRG, NSR, NSRGY, NTWK, NVS, OAK, OC, OHI, OI, OIL, OLN, OUBS, PAYX, PBI, PBY, PCLN, PDRDF, PEP, PFHO, PG, PGH, PGN, PHK, PHM, PHYS, PKB, PLPC, PM, PNC, PNTR, POT, PPLT, PSA, PSEC, PSLV, PSX, PTRY, PVG, PWE, PZZI, RAIL, RAVN, RCL, RDC, REGN, REZ, RFMD, RIG, RNF, RRD, RSH, RTH, RTK, RYL, SAND, SAVB, SCHW, SD, SDRL, SEA, SEB, SGOL, SHERF, SHLD, SINA, SKY, SLB, SLV, SLW, SNH, SPLS, SPY, STAG, STJ, STO, SU, SVU, SWY, T, TA, TAN, TAP, TEF, TEU, TEVA, TGE, TGH, TLM, TLT, TNK, TPX, TROX, TSEM, TUP, TWI, TX, UAN, UBG, UG, UIS, UL, UN, UNG, USO, UVV, VIG, VIVHY, VLO, VMC, VOD, VSEC, VTI, VXX, VZ, WAG, WAIR, WDC, WILC, WINN, WM, WMIH, WMT, WNR, WRES, WTM, WTR, WTW, WU, XCO, XHB, XIN, XLF, XLU, XLV, XRX, XXII, YHOO, YPF, YUM, Z
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Stay Away From Owens-Illinois Ahead Of First-Quarter Earnings [View article]
    This company has a history of overpaying for acquisitions, look at the goodwill, and carrying to much debt. The mgt needs to be replaced like immediately. Good riddance! Paying a dividend is not the answer and this company is in desperate need of some fcf GROWTH for once. stock is priced to high for an entry point. Under 20 makes for good purchase price imo. so in conclusion: Priorities should be 1A. Replace Mgt right now 1B. improve operations 2. reduce debt by a 1/3 over time along with a little buyback 3. Do not start a dividend 4. make every effort to trim this asbestos liability overtime and eliminating it as soon a possible. Position None
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Observations On U.S. Corporate Earnings [View article]
    <S&P 500 companies are on pace to return to shareholders more than 100% of their revenue through stock buybacks and dividends.> income? Record profit margins with a greater portion coming via technology cos. when does the tech profit boom end and pressure earnings?
    nothing wrong with buybacks, but stock buy back valuations should be an important consideration. these binge spenders will not have the funds to buyback when stock prices finally have that major inevitable correction. buying back stock with accelerated programs with a cos stock price at all time record highs is reckless imo.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines: Keep Until The Perception Changes [View article]
    <<With nearly $10 billion in cash and record cash generation in the next few quarters, investors should expect more stock buybacks and possibly higher dividends.>> The cash is at about 9.2 bil exc the restricted bolivar Venezuelen cash. More talk of increased dividends is just short sighted.
    Not one mention of the the remaining 2015 capital aircraft and engine commitments of 3.949 bil NOT including the 1.4 bil in cap ex for Q1. Depreciation and amortization was 336 mil in Q1 2015 and cap ex was 1.4 billlion. Huge differential.
    with expanding debt balances the company mgt should calm down and look at the future cap commitments of
    4.5 bil in 2016 5.13 bil in 2017 and 4.3 bil in 2018. No one knows where oil will be in the next 3 years or where interest rates will go. Two areas they have excess risk are oil prices and interest rates on their maturing debts and a junk rating.
    the mgt needs to calm down and act more conservative and stop boasting of NOT hedging fuel costs since he got lucky and hit a grand slam not hedging at much higher levels. maye hedging some jet fuel down at about 1.50 makes sense now.
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis [View article]
    lets turn the clock back to early 2000's and ENRON. Remember Enron's stock and deregulated energy markets were being hyped up. wondered why so i got an Enron annual report and looked at cashflow numbers and it was burning cash yet the hype continued until it went bust.
    Apr 26, 2015. 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ESCC Shares Could Be Ready To Increase Materially [View article]
    Nice call. congrats!
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Huge fuel cost drop boosts American Airlines Group [View news story]
    they do not have 10 bil in cash. The 800 mil in restricted cash is in venezuelen bolivars which are worth alot less than on balance sheet. They have about 9.2 bil cash exc restricted. 16.3 bil in debt. The problem is piling on debt is when the debt matures and has to be rolled over probably at higher rates. usually this happens at the wrong part of the economic cycle and there is no free cashflow to speak of.

    I do not know what cost is to hedge, but strategic hedging may make sense when under 1.50 jet fuel cost if it can be can done economically. I probably know more in the oil market than you but I am uncertain about oil prices. It does make sense to hedge a commodity when it is trading at a discount to marginal cost of production. The mgt here needs to stop spending all the fcf and start tightening its cap ex belt a little reduce debt. There is not always going to be hurricane winds at their backs forever. Mgt should not be boasting about not hedging at under 1.50 jet fuel price as was cop boasting they were NOT hedged at 120-140. I do agree change is occurring within the airline industry after years of mismanagement arrogance and free spending in capacity additions. take a look at another company in such an industry but lots of historical doubts is mu.
    Apr 24, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis [View article]
    Go Lakers. I was calling for housing bubble in 2005! And it took a few more years to finally bring down the house of cards. this time is different than the 08 crisis. It was more about the banking,housing, fannie/freddie fraud and shadow banking system. Today is the end game the GREATEST bubble ever, Sovereign debt. The end game is here. when govts are in trouble who bails out all the govts? The monetary system is going to be impacted. who can precisely predict how and when?
    I do agree with some of the other posters that mcd or coal is not a good indicator of a dire economy.

    The 10 year yield on several sovereign debts is NEGATIVE. NEGATIVE. Just think about it. Even some 30 year yields are under 1%. yes 1%.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Huge fuel cost drop boosts American Airlines Group [View news story]
    excellent managed airline? debt increased 1.6 billion for the 3 month period. the mgt needs to cool it with its expansion program and generate fcf to reduce debt. when times are good you prepare for tough times. would hope if jet fuel stays under 1.50 would make sense to lock in some hedges. free floating is great when it goes your way but can crush whe it goes against. i had the same conversation back in believe 2007 with cop and they insisting on not hedging at 120-140 oil. They said shareholders wanted it this way. I said it was a mistake to not hedge at these levels and why not at least partially hedge.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    it ain't easy gett'en rich. climbing the wall of skepticism.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    Its not about all in or all out. ......held many long long long term stocks and rode them down and reinvested dividends but did build a substantial cash % in 07 and 08 to pounce on values when op presented itself....got about the same cash % today. investors need to prepare themselves mentality for turbulent times again and review their portfolios to see what stocks you are committed to when sharp downdrafts hit the share prices.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    what do u mean there is no index bubble? Lots of sheep pouring money into the indexes at these levels and dividend hounds too. Profit margins are at or near record levels especially in technology, corp daily announce accelerated buyback plans near or at record share prices (real smart time to accelerate a buyback) and corp keep piling on more debt to buyback shares. On a price to sales basis the market is near historic highs. The market has come a long way off the 09 lows and many investors should be preparing mentally and their portfolios for some tough market at some point. ask those investors loading the boat on index funds in 1998-1999 or those loading in index funds in 07-08. pain and patience required to hold thru those brutal periods that followed.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    I surely would not be loading up in vti right now. Complacency is in a bubble. Look at the fake interests rates. A number of sovereign debts have neg ten year yields. Insane! The bells are going off listen.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Bears Get Smoked [View article]
    bm the voice of reason. the mgt of pm binged on to much cheap debt to make the high dividend growth and eps growth in the recent past. what worries me is crazy "king dollar" going to 110-120 before reality sets in and it declines so things could get hairy in the meantime. this is coming from a long long long term holder.
    Apr 17, 2015. 06:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive To Drive Growth On Its Oral Care Segment [View article]
    no mention of the lofty valuation of the company shares
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit rises a greater than expected $15.6B in February [View news story]
    A good portion of the debtload has been refi'd and with rock bottom teaser rates, so start the spending binge again and the debt accumulation cycle until the next bust. Got to keep this credit based ponzi system fed. booooooooyaaaaaaa
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,298 Comments
6,520 Likes