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The_Hammer

The_Hammer
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • ESCC Shares Could Be Ready To Increase Materially [View article]
    Nice call. congrats!
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Huge fuel cost drop boosts American Airlines Group [View news story]
    they do not have 10 bil in cash. The 800 mil in restricted cash is in venezuelen bolivars which are worth alot less than on balance sheet. They have about 9.2 bil cash exc restricted. 16.3 bil in debt. The problem is piling on debt is when the debt matures and has to be rolled over probably at higher rates. usually this happens at the wrong part of the economic cycle and there is no free cashflow to speak of.

    I do not know what cost is to hedge, but strategic hedging may make sense when under 1.50 jet fuel cost if it can be can done economically. I probably know more in the oil market than you but I am uncertain about oil prices. It does make sense to hedge a commodity when it is trading at a discount to marginal cost of production. The mgt here needs to stop spending all the fcf and start tightening its cap ex belt a little reduce debt. There is not always going to be hurricane winds at their backs forever. Mgt should not be boasting about not hedging at under 1.50 jet fuel price as was cop boasting they were NOT hedged at 120-140. I do agree change is occurring within the airline industry after years of mismanagement arrogance and free spending in capacity additions. take a look at another company in such an industry but lots of historical doubts is mu.
    Apr 24, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis [View article]
    Go Lakers. I was calling for housing bubble in 2005! And it took a few more years to finally bring down the house of cards. this time is different than the 08 crisis. It was more about the banking,housing, fannie/freddie fraud and shadow banking system. Today is the end game the GREATEST bubble ever, Sovereign debt. The end game is here. when govts are in trouble who bails out all the govts? The monetary system is going to be impacted. who can precisely predict how and when?
    I do agree with some of the other posters that mcd or coal is not a good indicator of a dire economy.

    The 10 year yield on several sovereign debts is NEGATIVE. NEGATIVE. Just think about it. Even some 30 year yields are under 1%. yes 1%.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Huge fuel cost drop boosts American Airlines Group [View news story]
    excellent managed airline? debt increased 1.6 billion for the 3 month period. the mgt needs to cool it with its expansion program and generate fcf to reduce debt. when times are good you prepare for tough times. would hope if jet fuel stays under 1.50 would make sense to lock in some hedges. free floating is great when it goes your way but can crush whe it goes against. i had the same conversation back in believe 2007 with cop and they insisting on not hedging at 120-140 oil. They said shareholders wanted it this way. I said it was a mistake to not hedge at these levels and why not at least partially hedge.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    it ain't easy gett'en rich. climbing the wall of skepticism.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    Its not about all in or all out. ......held many long long long term stocks and rode them down and reinvested dividends but did build a substantial cash % in 07 and 08 to pounce on values when op presented itself....got about the same cash % today. investors need to prepare themselves mentality for turbulent times again and review their portfolios to see what stocks you are committed to when sharp downdrafts hit the share prices.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    what do u mean there is no index bubble? Lots of sheep pouring money into the indexes at these levels and dividend hounds too. Profit margins are at or near record levels especially in technology, corp daily announce accelerated buyback plans near or at record share prices (real smart time to accelerate a buyback) and corp keep piling on more debt to buyback shares. On a price to sales basis the market is near historic highs. The market has come a long way off the 09 lows and many investors should be preparing mentally and their portfolios for some tough market at some point. ask those investors loading the boat on index funds in 1998-1999 or those loading in index funds in 07-08. pain and patience required to hold thru those brutal periods that followed.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Market Bubble? You May Have The Wrong Strategy [View article]
    I surely would not be loading up in vti right now. Complacency is in a bubble. Look at the fake interests rates. A number of sovereign debts have neg ten year yields. Insane! The bells are going off listen.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Bears Get Smoked [View article]
    bm the voice of reason. the mgt of pm binged on to much cheap debt to make the high dividend growth and eps growth in the recent past. what worries me is crazy "king dollar" going to 110-120 before reality sets in and it declines so things could get hairy in the meantime. this is coming from a long long long term holder.
    Apr 17, 2015. 06:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive To Drive Growth On Its Oral Care Segment [View article]
    no mention of the lofty valuation of the company shares
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit rises a greater than expected $15.6B in February [View news story]
    A good portion of the debtload has been refi'd and with rock bottom teaser rates, so start the spending binge again and the debt accumulation cycle until the next bust. Got to keep this credit based ponzi system fed. booooooooyaaaaaaa
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Mania Is Getting Scary- Central Bankers Are Running A Doomsday Machine [View article]
    Hey jeff u assume everyone invests like a pack of sheep.
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Home Depot Accelerating The Buyback Program? [View article]
    Mgt is not doing well by buying back shares at high valuations. How about a little restraint and discipline? No I'll betcha their compensation increases due to these high priced buybacks using shareholders money. the execs are not giving shareholders anything It is shareholders money in the first place.
    Everyone needs to calm down talking about accelerated buybacks and special dividends since a recession could hit at anytime. i know this never happens in such a manipulated financial system.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avon May Stop Calling... For Good [View article]
    lack of balance sheet info.
    there is 961 mil min cash and total debts are 2.6 bil. the only thing u report on the balance sheet is debt?
    now they give so called superstar cfo a massive number of restricted shares like over 500K in total. the only people that make money at avp are these good for nothing directors and the pompously paid executives. These execs and board need to start producing results for such outlandish compensation.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Mania Is Getting Scary- Central Bankers Are Running A Doomsday Machine [View article]
    RD I am a little tired of hearing people justify with this reckless incompetent fed did. they were a major player causing the 2008 crisis along with lack of enforcement of TTFB and deregulation. This %^^%$en system is broken corrupted and ready for a change. Bring it on.
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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