Your thesis makes alot of sense. The consumer is toast. Wages are flat and have been flat to down for several years. Most of the increase of the past decade has been to benefits which is included in wages. You can't spend benefits. Who the heck is going to spend 18k for a hog? Many of these stocks have had huge moves off the March 9 lows. To much optimism built in to these stock rallies. In addition I think this short term consumer confidence boost will be short lived. People will realize that our country is not going to rebound fast and that the economy must adjust to the new realities. No more free Housing ATM to spend and that one must live within ones income. Thus lower level of consumption going forward.
Sherwin Williams: Short Potential [View article]
Who the heck is going to spend 18k for a hog?
Many of these stocks have had huge moves off the March 9 lows. To much optimism built in to these stock rallies. In addition I think this short term consumer confidence boost will be short lived. People will realize that our country is not going to rebound fast and that the economy must adjust to the new realities. No more free Housing ATM to spend and that one must live within ones income. Thus lower level of consumption going forward.