The Hammer

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

I see a few on this board are calling that debt to gdp a wacky chart?

It's all debt and it has to be paid back unless it is defaulted on.

Whether it be household debt, state and federal debt, financial debt we are levered in all aspects of this economy except corp debt.
Household debt to disposable income is off record highs. In 2008 it was 138%, in 1990 it was 90% and lower than that in the 1980's.

The govt aling with every special interest is making all efforts to prop up asset prices expecially house prices. House prices busted this country along with the lax fraudulent lending that has just started up again with the corrupt FHA.

Entitlement programs will have to be cut and you know what that means....means testing. You save make rational financial decisions you pay for the derelict homedebtor sheeple.

Polticians suck....all of them. What an arrogant group totally out of touch with the big squeeze across america as in health insurance /costs, property taxes, utility/energy and watch the big squeeze in food prices going forward. this will be crippling to our country and the sheeple are going to get real nasty when they are hungry.

Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes: No Way to Run the World's Largest Economy

The govt & cos. brainwashed the public into believing they were well off cuz they could go out and buy things with no money down schemes over the years.
The public is coming to the realization that they are near broke and better start saving adn deleveraging.
You can feel the public tension & frustration rising. The next down turn will completely knock the wind out of the sails of the consumer. A new ice age is approaching.

How Much Longer for This Rally?

withholding tax collections are down -11.43%
since july 1st. compared to last year same period

Why 'Investor Intelligence' Is an Oxymoron

State Street Index: Investor Confidence Surges to Five Year High

what about institutional investors? sheep too?

Two Big Bounces: 1929 vs. 2009

Since this is the largest rebound off the bottom ever, one has to wonder how long it can last. Recent article:
"State Street Index: Investor Confidence Surges to Five Year High"
Institutional Investors jumping in. Is this just another indicator that we are near the end of this big pop?
I have decided that it is and have been slowly selling things into this huge rally.
How can the economy come back to its former levels of economic activity with all this phoney credit expansion and debt no longer around?

How Much Longer for This Rally?

75% of cos have beaten estimates..well we know that in many cases analyst regurgitate guidance from mgt and cos guide expectations.
Kind of a weak article Leeb, but as you left out such data as unemployment and those falling off of unemployment and applying for erxtended benefits rising.
The economy needs to undergo a major restructuring...from a con sumption and credit based economy to one more balanced with mfg and savings. It is gong to be a painful process sicne the govt continues to meddle with the economy and kick the can down the road and will not allow the economy tio correct the excesses of the past.

Three Solid Investment Themes

IMO stagflation is the most likely outcome. This does not mean we cannot have pockets of deflation in certain sectors that have overcapacity like housing, autos, banking/finance and retail. The things we need everyday will inflate like food and energy while incomes stagnate.
It also looks like the days of rampant college tuition increases maybe coming to an end too. What about professional athlete salaries? Pro salaries are in the stratossphere and expect them to take a big chop soon.

There Are Opportunities Everywhere - Barron's Interview

Another thing, back in 2000-2002 period. All I heard is tech tech tech. Tech started going down and many said crisco was down 50% it was a bargain. Just because something is down x% does not make it a bargain. You need to look deeply at the business and asset values to really see if it is priced at a bargain price. Crisco went from $30 to near $15 today or 75% cheaper.
So the next time you hear something is down 50% look closer to make sure it is really cheap.
One last point, take a look at crisco stock option reward plan. The buybacks barely make a dent in lowering share count after stock options rewards. Buybacks in this case should be looked at as ongoing capital expenditures to maintain shareholder value.

There Are Opportunities Everywhere - Barron's Interview

I have to disagree that this is the best buying opportunity in 30 years.

Two periods before this had better valuations and less baggage of an enormous debt lead carried today at 350% debt to gdp. 1982 and 1987 post crash. In the case of 1982 p/e's were single digits and dividend yields were higher than today. Of course interest rates were double digit and no where to go but down. 1987 post crash priced securities at real low double digit valuations. All of this in both periods mainly without the gross rewarding of stock options to company execs which dilute shareholders like today.
We have a federal reserve monetizing debt and lending money to various deadbeat constituents in TARP and TALF. We have a corrupt runaway political process and lack of social constraints to prevent such malinvestment. So yes there are some good values today, but is it the best I have ever seen?NO.
One last measurment. Look at the Q-Ratio stock market value to asset replacement costs and the market is trading something like 80% of this value. back in 1982 this value was near 40%.
So the markets can overshoot in times of major distress.

Never seen so many predictions calling for a bottom in the economy, kind of like all the calls from the NAR that housing has bottomed all the way back to the peak.

There Is No Replacement for American Consumer Spending

Your article hits to the heart of the problem. The US economy over the past 2 decades has been built on excessive/lax-- debt /credit expansion that allowed excessive consumption well beyond income. We have built an economic infrastructure based on these forces. unfortunately this PHoney artificial demand is not sustainable. We are seeing the ramifications now. Right before our eyes the economy is restucturing, but the gov't with its continued easy money policies has been attempting to jump start past consumption. This will not work as the US govt is in a debt bubble and the global markets will put the US Govt on watch that they cannot continue this reckless easy money fantasy.
The US will have to develop new industry or bring back mfg to jump start demand. Artificial Consumption is not gojng to work.

A Stairway to Retail Heaven (Part 2)

The american public is realizing the last 10-20 years was a mirage. I life of living big on expanding credit. The party is over and the economy is going through a dramatic retructurings before our eyes. We are going from and excess spend and excessive leverage economy to one that will be more balanced between savings and spending.
The savings rate actually jumped up recently. About time the public ended their obsession with monthly payment mentality and being a debt slave is the american dream. Thi sis not living.
Also the american public should start to take back their govt from these corrupt politicians and special interests groups wh are destroying our country's future. This includes dems and repubs they are all corrupt.
This budget is just a money grab for special interest. Where the F$%$# is the responsible spending.