I am projecting that the US govt is near insolvent and that we will be facing a new Bretton Woods currency agreement bringing gold back into the monetary system in combination with a sudden fiat currency devaluation (across the board-most currencies) against gold over a long weekend or an outright sovereign debt panic by 2020-2025. The least expected outcome double digit inflation is very likely sometime in the future. The Fed PRO-POVERTY policies are going to crush the poor, fixed pensioners and lower middle class since disposable income growth is limited. Beware middle class and retirees your purchasing power will drop dramatically when everyday necessities absorb a larger % of your income. To spread the word to the brainwashed American drones that this economy is one big illusion ponzi scheme and you are infact broke. Issuing more debt to solve a debt problem is crazy. I am accepting nominations for those that played a major positive and major negative impact on our economy. Inductees: The Hammer Hall of Fame Bill Black Brooksley Born David Walker Ron Paul Robert Rodriguez Peter Schiff David Stockman Janet Tavakoli John Bogle Elizabeth Warren Steve Wynn ============================== The Hammer Hall of Shame Ben MadMan Bernanke Lloyd Blankfein Bush II Jamie Diamond Shaun Donovan Barney Fwank Dick Fuld Alan "The Maestro" Greenspan Tim Geithner Paul king Krugman David Lereah Angelo Mozillo Obama The NAHB The NAR Henry Paulsen Nancy Pelosi Charles Prince Franklin Raines Robert Rubin David Stephens Larry Summers Bob Toll Maxine Waters Lawrence Yun
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
Roger Erickson, PhD Neurophysiology
Interests - scalable systems methodology allowing use of emerging component capabilities
I believe in long term investing and waiting for a correctio before investing in any sector. Diversification is for people that are afraid to make money. I believe in going after big companies with good management. I am a big believer in precious metals and agriculture. I believe china has a strong future, but never under estimate the united states
Don't entirely like the monetary system in the US - Quote: "It is well enough that people of our American nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
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I am 40 and would like to retire before 60. I am fortunate to work for a state government and I am vested in their pension. So, I am set when I turn 60+. Because I don't have to worry about saving for a normal retirement age, I have been able to put almost all of my savings towards the goal of early retirement, by investing in a taxable brokerage account.
Demonstrated success is the one outstanding fact which justifies confidence in the outlook for any particular business, and thus the investor will always, as a first test for an industry security, carefully consider the results already obtained. John Moody
As an Editor on the SA PRO team my job is to help find the best content for PRO, to provide feedback and develop talented contributors, and to work with other departments to strengthen the platform.
I have studied to ply my trade in finance with a bachelors in accounting. In 2014, I developed an app to access corporate disclosure materials at the SEC. My grandparent’s home was filled with valuing investing paraphernalia and, naturally, I became interested in the stock market.
Seeking Alpha is full of hidden gems and bum steers. Check out some of the authors I follow. And authors, check out "The Elements of Style" by Strunk & White.
Stocktalks represent my personal opinion only - links are not endorsements.
Peter George Psaras, has been investing for over 40 years and has expertise in the following:
1) Quantitative Analysis
2) Qualitative Analysis
3) Macro Economic Analysis
4) Technical Analysis
5) Stock Market History
He is the CEO at Conservative Equity Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor based in New York.