I am projecting that the US govt is near insolvent and that we will be facing a new Bretton Woods currency agreement bringing gold back into the monetary system in combination with a sudden fiat currency devaluation (across the board-most currencies) against gold over a long weekend or an outright sovereign debt panic by 2020-2025. The least expected outcome double digit inflation is very likely sometime in the future. The Fed PRO-POVERTY policies are going to crush the poor, fixed pensioners and lower middle class since disposable income growth is limited. Beware middle class and retirees your purchasing power will drop dramatically when everyday necessities absorb a larger % of your income. To spread the word to the brainwashed American drones that this economy is one big illusion ponzi scheme and you are infact broke. Issuing more debt to solve a debt problem is crazy. I am accepting nominations for those that played a major positive and major negative impact on our economy. Inductees: The Hammer Hall of Fame Bill Black Brooksley Born David Walker Ron Paul Robert Rodriguez Peter Schiff David Stockman Janet Tavakoli John Bogle Elizabeth Warren Steve Wynn ============================== The Hammer Hall of Shame Ben MadMan Bernanke Lloyd Blankfein Bush II Jamie Diamond Shaun Donovan Barney Fwank Dick Fuld Alan "The Maestro" Greenspan Tim Geithner Paul king Krugman David Lereah Angelo Mozillo Obama The NAHB The NAR Henry Paulsen Nancy Pelosi Charles Prince Franklin Raines Robert Rubin David Stephens Larry Summers Bob Toll Maxine Waters Lawrence Yun
I'm a self-directed investor who shares my experience in investing. I read, learn, and apply every day.
I write about value & dividend investing from the perspective of a Canadian. I invest in individual stocks on the US stock exchanges and the Toronto Stock Exchange.
As I write, I reflect on my own actions and results, which is an amazing exercise. I encourage individual investors who enjoy writing to try it.
I appreciate the work done by SA staff & authors and love the SA community that engages in meaningful discussions.
My goal is to hit $37,450 in dividends and retire at age 35. Financial independence is complete freedom.
(While not at my goaI I am close enough. I just quit my job and retired this year at age 35 with this portfolio. Currently it generates about $30K a year in income from dividends and should grow dividends in the 8-10% range yearly. I am moving to the Philippines. Good luck to everyone on SA.)
I use multiple strategies to invest:
Strategy 1: Wonderful Businesses (with Huge Cash Flows)
Strategy 2: Capital Intensive - Quality - Cyclical - Below Book Value
Strategy 3: Purely Compounders (http://www.dailywealth.com/194/how-to-join-a-compound-interest-club)
Portfolio: Strategy 1
A man with no options suddenly has all the options in the world:
SHORT 3 VIAB FEB 19 2016 PUTS @ $32.5
Short 6 VIAB JAN 22 2016 PUTS $38.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 30 JNJ JAN 2016 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 UVV AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $40 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY AUG 21 2015 CALL @ $95 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 40 PM DEC 18 2015 PUTS @ $72.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM SEP 18 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY SEP 18 2015 CALL @ $90 (EXERCISED)
Short 9 WDR MAY 20 2016 PUTS @ 20
Short 5 VIAB SEP 16 2016 PUTS @ 32.5
Portfolio Performance (Time Weighted Rate of Return)
18.14% Annualized Return
VS S&P 500
15.82% Annualized Return
“It’s obvious that if a company generates high returns on capital and reinvests at high returns, it will do well. But this wouldn’t sell books, so there’s a lot of twaddle and fuzzy concepts that have been introduced that don’t add much.” -Charlie Munger
People are always asking me where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable?” -John Templeton
Favorite investing books/letters: Outsiders, 100 Baggers, Any Book Written by Joel Greenblatt, Stocks for the Long Run, The Intelligent Investor, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters.
I sell put options to get paid to wait to buy equities low, and sell call options to get paid to wait to sell equities high. I use this method to cycle out of overvalued sectors and into undervalued sectors, whether they are energy, REITs, precious metals, tech, financials, etc. I always look forward to what's going to rise next; not what already has risen.
My career as an engineer primarily involves project management, engineering economics, and technical procurement. I have a bachelor's in electrical engineering and a master's in engineering management.
I am mostly a daytrader engaging in both long and short bets intraday and occasionally over the short to medium term. My focus is mostly on tech stocks and more recently the shipping and offshore drilling industry. I am located in Germany and have worked quite some time as an auditor for PricewaterhouseCoopers before becoming a professional trader more than 15 years ago. During this time I managed to successfully maneuver the burst of the dotcom bubble and the aftermath of the world trade center attacks as well as the subprime crisis. My return on invested capital has been mostly good and at times reaches up to several 100% annually so I will most likely be around for some more years.
I am an individual Value investor with a long term view, with a background in engineering. I understand and have an interest in business and operations.
That said, I see the value in quantitative investing and the use of historical data. This allows me to assess the probability of an investment strategy to perform in the future. I avoid speculation, unfounded claims and market timing.
My focus is on long ideas with a contrarian and deep value spin, but I also work elements of momentum into my strategies as well.
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My trading experience includes over twenty five years of intense investment analysis, trend analysis and deep level due diligence studies. My interest is to find small company opportunities that have established funding sources, have a plan of action and are in the preliminary to first stages of pipeline development and execution. My coverage and investment interest includes biotech, small cap and emerging growth companies, regardless of sector. I am a contributing writer at CNA Finance and cover emerging opportunities as well as breaking news events.
A buy-side equity research analyst and a deputy portfolio manager covering global financials.
With nearly 10 years of investment experience on both buy- and sell-side, I provide research coverage on U.S., European, LatAm and CEEMEA banks/financials, including fundamental analysis, DCF/multiples valuation, commentaries on price-sensitive events and actionable trading ideas. If you are interested in the topic, click the "Follow" button beside my name on the top of the page.
Feel free to e-mail at email@example.com
You'll never see me write a long bio listing all of my credentials and degrees or refer to myself in the third person. I love discussing ideas and I appreciate it when people can play devil's advocate without resorting to personal attacks. In short, I employ a long-only, long-horizon, focused value style, guided by thorough bottom-up research and backed by years of accounting and finance experience. When people ask me "what do you do?" I assume they mean for fun.
I am a private investor with over eight years of experience in the public markets.
I most recently served as a founding member of an institutional portfolio strategy firm headquartered in NYC. My prior experience includes three years as an analyst at a long/short equity hedge fund, two years in sell-side equity research, and two years as a healthcare investment banking analyst.
I am currently an undergraduate student at Northeastern University, where I am pursuing a major in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance. An aspiring equity research analyst, I am enthusiastic about studying financial markets and their prevailing trends. For the past five years, I have built my own financial models and have used them in managing my investment portfolio.
Additionally, I have the distinct pleasure of being an analyst for the Northeastern University Student Value Fund. We are a student-run fund with over $170,000 under management. SVF uses a value-centric approach to investing, and more can be learned at our website: http://www.svfneu.com.
I have over 17 years experience in the hedge fund industry working as a Portfolio Manager, Domestic Equity Analyst and Trader. I was the Portfolio Manager of a domestic Hedged Equity product with gross assets that peaked over 1 Billion dollars, and I have over 18 years experience generating both long and short ideas in domestic equities. I am a fundamental, bottoms up, value investor in long investments, and catalyst oriented short investor. I like to employ technical analysis as a balance to my fundamental work, and also as a risk management characteristic to my overall investment philosophy. I am currently investing my own capital in a similar manner I employed while working in the hedge fund industry.
The Virtuous Cycle (TVC) educates individuals about time-tested money management and investment behaviors that promote long-term financial health. TVC manages growth and dividend portfolios while emphasizing that investor discipline and strategy, in addition to stock selection, are key determinants of investment returns.
My extensive experience working overseas has provided a solid foundation for my investment philosophy.
I have found that travel is a far better teacher than a conventional education. The experiences and knowledge one gains on the ground around the world cannot be taught in any classroom.
Finance professional with extensive experience analyzing companies. I have an innate passion for finance and investing. While most popular stock prognosticators tell investors what they want to hear, I try to inform investors about what they need to know to make an informed decision.
Disclaimer: Articles and/or comments represent the opinion of the author, who is not a licensed financial advisor. Articles are intended for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice to any particular individual. Readers should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
I have been an active investor for almost 20 years. My main focus is on high-yield stocks, particularly MLPs, and high-growth oil companies in the Eagle Ford shale. I have a portion of my portfolio allocated to short-term trading, with a focus on over-reactions to company news and directional plays on VIX-based ETFs. I am happy to answer just about any question sent my way, especially from those new to the stock market.
I am an undergraduate mathematics/economics student at the University of Chicago. I am always seeking insightful research and discourse with fellow investors. Reach out to me for additional information and to start a conversation!
A writer first, a long only investor second. Lifelong learner just trying to add value.
Recommended books: Security Analysis (Graham/Dodd); Margin of Safety (Klarman); When Genius Failed (Lowenstein); Common Stocks Uncommon Profits (Fisher); Irrational Exuberance (Shiller); Memos from Oaktree Capital (Marks); Zhuangzi (Zhuangzi), Meditations (Marcus Aurelius), The Brothers Karamazov (Dostoevsky)
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.