Eric in IL

10 Comments

    • ON: Tue Aug 19th 14:48 PM
      Commented on:
      Analyzing Verizon's FiOS Bet
      Verizon and AT&T have to compete with cable head-to-head. Unlike the ridiculous Dennis Kneale suggests, wireless cannot stand alone. Cable Cos would just make a wireless acquisition and squash them with the value add of the triple/quad play. Traditional POTS lines are dying/dead and the telcos have the global networks to provide a superior data service to Cable. I agree with your AOL comparison. The right choice was for Verizon to move forward with FiOS and differentiate themselves with a convergent platform to compete with cable. If I had to make a bet on where Comcast will be relative to Verizon in 5 years, I think the equity of Verizon will outperform that of Comcast by 100%. Both AT&T and Verizon are getting traction and their subscriber numbers are growing rapidly. They'll face their hiccups, but these guys know how to operate. Also, in my experience, the Telcos are better at transforming than the cable cos. One other notion is that of a ripe market vs a spent market. The market for landline/voip probably won't grow in net, so Cable's gain on voice will slow, while there is plenty of TV market to take away from Cable, so here the telcos will flourish. I reiterate a 5 year horizon, but I would even bet than by EOY 2009, VZ & T will be amazing people.
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    • ON: Thu Jul 24th 13:02 PM
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
      I believe the run up in oil had a ton to do with the financials. When money flowed out of financials, it had to go somewhere, and not everyone runs to treasuries. I think it all flowed to oil (and other commodities). You may call this speculation, but I do not accept the fact that this was pure speculation, I think it had a lot to do with rotation and a huge confirmatory bias on bullish oil news. I made a lot of money on the pairs trade long financials, short oil in the last week due primarily to some extremes on the Chaikin Money Flow indicator (and playing the VIX:TNX spike). I am flat now, except for some small Puts on the USO.
      On some of the other comments, I favor a return to the mean in almost any case. People, both conservative and liberal, go too far to the extremes, and I will wait patiently to bet on the return to the mean.
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    • ON: Wed Jul 23rd 14:44 PM
      Commented on:
      Let the GSEs Fail
      If we let Fannie and Freddie fail home ownership in this country will plummet and we will be in a sever depression. Home values will plummet, equities will plummet. This moral high road thing is ridiculous. I am happy for our govt to pay 25B - 100B to bail these guys out instead of it costing the entire economy trillions upon trillions.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 19th 13:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Options Trader Thursday Outlook
      Can someone weigh in on the oil consumption from our armed forces. Are they using more or less? Without the pro/con of our military decisions, I see the military efforts adding huge demand for oil since 9/11. Anyone care to address this issue?
      Also, what is the increase year over year from the BRIC nations? I would like to see the global oil demand picture explained year over year.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 16:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Eagle, Navios, China Cosco: Welcome to the Bulk Shipping Boom
      I read that China is churning through existing inventories and slowing imports on iron ore. The analyst thought this would last a few weeks, so I think the Baltic Indices should start to rebound in a month. The capesize index fell 15% today causing DRYS to fall 8%. If this continues, DRYS could see $50 soon.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 11:47 AM
      Commented on:
      Eagle, Navios, China Cosco: Welcome to the Bulk Shipping Boom
      Well, I think it is dangerous to jump in when the rates have come so far, so fast. These rates make oil look stable/cheap. That is reflected with the low P/E. I would not be a buyer until I see the rates trend back up, because this could be a huge correction to the downside. I have concerns about how much upside there is on rates.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 03:41 AM
      Commented on:
      Eagle, Navios, China Cosco: Welcome to the Bulk Shipping Boom
      Man, I must be tired, I also meant the BDI is overbought. RSI @ 90+ right now, trending downward.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 03:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Eagle, Navios, China Cosco: Welcome to the Bulk Shipping Boom
      One correction, I meant buy at end of June.
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 03:29 AM
      Commented on:
      Eagle, Navios, China Cosco: Welcome to the Bulk Shipping Boom
      There will be a time for these, but picking a bottom can cost you 30% in these. I would look at the Baltic Shipping Indices to keep track of the trend. Look at the $BDI on stockcharts.com, way oversold, definitely not looking bullish near term. I would buy at end of July.
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    • ON: Tue Jun 10th 13:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Good Time to Buy a 'Little' Shipping
      Have you checked out Capital Link Shipping - the industry reports are showing some flattening. The BDI is completely overbought. I have June $40 puts on TBSI, seems more volatile than the rest and getting a nice payday today.
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