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Eric in IL » Comments » C

  • 5 Reasons Bank Shareholders Will Take a Hit [View article]
    A lot here is overbought here, I am hesitant to get long, but also hesitant to be short. I would rather wait for a correction (there will be one). There are certain pairs trades that I would consider. Short Gold, Long Platinum. Short Citi, Long BAC (I would rather wait on this one after BAC's run-up).
    The one I am very excited about long-term is Long V, Short AXP. V is the debit leader, has no credit risk, and is not cannibalizing its business. AXP is clearly hurting and pulling credit for creditworthy clients. They must have serious cash flow issues.
    May 06 12:07 pm |Rating: +2 -3 |Link to Comment
  • An Unconventional Option - Go Long Financials [View article]
    Why chase the last 5-10% of the financials downside, there is way too much risk to be short financials. Everyone is taking action to help the banks, and as time goes on, they are gaining tons of deposits. Everyone ignores the power of deposits and the fact that real interest rates to end consumers have actually come down. Mortgage units are collecting tons of fees on refinancing. These guys are still gonna write-down billions per quarter, but they are getting enough other revenues in to offset them. Jumping in to SKF is really dangerous here. There are only so many times you can go to the well. Just think if GS or JPM or BAC pays back TARP funds. There will be a huge rally (even f it makes no sense), short squeeze will kill you.
    Apr 02 15:18 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment
  • Quarterly Summary on Gold and Other Markets  [View article]
    Nice analysis. I would have liked you to have discussed the realtionship between Gold and Platinum Group Metals. That relationship tells me that PGM should outperform Gold throughout 2009-2010.
    I happen to disagree with your view on Gold. I think if equities rally, like today, then Gold gets hurt. The price of gold right now is more of a safety concern, for lack of good alternatives, than it is an inflation concern. Near term, equities should outperform. When this market takes a breather, I would look at PGM.
    Dollar fell today and so did Gold, and Oil is up. I don't really think any market is working like it should, but the Gold-Inflation trade is farther out than people realize.
    Long GLL and GLL Calls, Long DIG Calls.
    Apr 02 12:46 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
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