Eric in IL

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I looked back at Mar 9 articles. I do not find Mr Fry to be very helpful at inflection points. Either we gap higher soon or we head back to 750 on the S&P. I think the sideline money is waiting for some moving averages to turn positive.

Donald Luskin: Gold and the Upside-Down Bell Curve

I think a year from now, Gold will be half of where it is today (within the next year). It is due for a major pullback before the major long-term swing up.
1 month prediction: Gold at 825
1 Year Prediction: Gold under 600

China Concerns, Crashing Currencies and the Future of Gold Purchases

Gold actually looks to be forming a nice double-top here. I see no reason why we couldn't retrace all the way back to $600 in the next two years. I think we have seen a fundamental shift in leverage and the money printing will not have the near-term inflationary impacts that everyone expects. When Gold doesn't skyrocket to $2000 like everyone expects, and they see that equities have relatively outperformed from here, they will flee gold. That is when I'll buy. Platinum has already retraced to 2004 lows. Gold hasn't. And even if it does maintain a trend, the long-term trendline intercept is near $700.

Gold as a Savings Instrument - Not an Investment

I appreciate your perspective here. I agree more with your savings argument. I do not "invest" in gold near-term, but for a long-term hedge it is very prudent.
One thing that drives me insane is the following premise "Gold is money. Real money, tangible money unlike the fiat paper currencies ..." I get that it is tangible and in limited supply.
Why does gold have any more value than currency? They are all really assets with "perceived" value. Gold has much less industrial use than other precious metals. It has value because someone in ancient times said it had value, and that has remained throughout time (our view of time).
I would much rather be long Platinum here. I am actually bearish on Platinum near-term, but it should outperform Gold for almost any slice of time from here.

Too Early to Say Recent Gold Sell-Off Is Over

Near term, this is all about money flow. Money Flow indicators are looking bearish on gold right now. But, I think the key for near-term gold is if we have an equities rally or not.

Low Gold Price a Buying Opportunity

While I believe we are going to see Gold at $2000 within the next decade, at most I would start averaging in here. I would also be buying Platinum on dips as I think it will rise relative to Gold.
Gold is a 3+ year play. Platinum is right now.
Long GLL Calls

G20 and IMF Gold: A Late April Fools'

Gold is inflated now. I think it has a significant pullback, after a near-term dip that I see coming, I would be buying PGM, not GLD.
Long GLL

Bear Market Over? Not So Fast

Let's face it, this is all a big house of cards. Don't get me wrong, I'm a bull, not a bear. At some point it makes no sense to put value on anything that you can't eat, wear, or live in. What makes gold have value? Nothing, other than your own belief. What makes paper currency have value? Nothing, other than your belief in a government. Who is going to pay you if you buy puts on the Dow and it goes to Zero? No one, because if the Dow goes to zero, then we return to hunting and gathering. I mean, when you step back and really think about making a living on the stock market, it is really funny. Your only value is that you contribute to the function of a big confidence game.
Now seriously, I think Roubini and Taleb have had their day in the sun. I do not intend to chase them down the black hole. Although, I would argue that Taleb's black swan now should be Dow 14000, because it is the exact opposite of where we are right now. And I think he would agree.
And as I have said a lot on this site, buy Platinum instead of Gold. Platinum will outperform Gold this year.

Quarterly Summary on Gold and Other Markets

Nice analysis. I would have liked you to have discussed the realtionship between Gold and Platinum Group Metals. That relationship tells me that PGM should outperform Gold throughout 2009-2010.
I happen to disagree with your view on Gold. I think if equities rally, like today, then Gold gets hurt. The price of gold right now is more of a safety concern, for lack of good alternatives, than it is an inflation concern. Near term, equities should outperform. When this market takes a breather, I would look at PGM.
Dollar fell today and so did Gold, and Oil is up. I don't really think any market is working like it should, but the Gold-Inflation trade is farther out than people realize.
Long GLL and GLL Calls, Long DIG Calls.

Platinum Group Metals - Truly Precious

Agreeing with Allan. PLAT:GOLD is low right now, the ratio is 1.2, off about 40% from where it was a year ago. Honestly, I see no real value in any of these metals, but if you value Gold, then you should also value Platinum, et al. I am getting long PGM against GLD.

Dollar-Gold Relationship Inspires 'New Economic Theories'

I think you guys need to guard against a Gold Bias here. Gold is trading at $1100+ in March 2008 dollars. It looks to be breaking down through its trendline today. The relationship between gold and the dollar is completely linked, but like all things has become completely distorted in this market environment. It will go back to normal, but Gold will fall back before the dollar does. The dollar has incentive to go stronger before other currencies, we have no more rates to cut, our economy should pull up before others, our interest rates should rise before others as we come out. Money Supply is not expanding like everyone thinks. Bullish Gold here is an early trade against the dollar, and over the next 3 months is gonna be a losing bet. I'll buy gold when it comes back in.
Long GLL

I Think Oil Will Outperform Gold in Near Term

Couldn't agree more, I am bearish Gold here. It is trading at above $1100 in 2008 dollars. I do not see inflation anytime soon. If you are bullish Gold you are gonna be early.
Long GLL, DIG