Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
fair comment - Labrador rules ( picture) - i think these days it has however all changed, there used to be a time that one had to be extremely careful whilst integrating upstream and downstream not to be perceived by ones clients or suppliers to become their competitor, but today ? everybody is in with everybody while at the same time the court cases are flying around, the Oil companies started it, when their Gas Stations became complete super markets and Restaurants.
as far as the Authorities go in Europe, yes there is an issue, but the issue I believe is not for MSFT owning Nokia, it would be if MSFT was not willing to make available their systems to 3rd parties, that is perceived to be a "cornering" policy and excluding others to have the opportunity for the same entry.
anyway, let's not go down the road of the law makers in Europe, we are ( presently) mostly governed by Socialist parties, yet we are willing to dwarf anybody else on the Globe if it comes down to help US INC to avoid US taxes, yet we want the FED to bail the Western world out of recession. Nuts -
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
none of us knows, but it is not uncommon for companies to put an option structure in place to secure that no one else can come in and buy the stock, playing for time. i truly believe MSFT wanted to buy Nonia, but could not get it by the accountants, there is no doubt Nokia had a lot of very questionable receivables on their balance sheet at arguable valuations (?) who knows ?..and yes there is the Siemens issue, but that's moved a bit to the back burner and it's making now rather than bleeding.... so MSFT comes up with this financing scheme.
as far as the Board goes, I have seen takeovers and Management always came out good, shares could always be swapped, if the new owners wanted to go on with the present Directors for shares in newco or the parent company. we will see, the matter of the fact is, that Nokia is coming to life and here in the low lands of Europe as well as our neighboring countries Nokia is still a huge name, their phones really look good on the displays, but where is the stock ? and that should be Nokia's priority get these phones in the shops, they will sell and don't forget Nokia share price still reflects all the negatives and hesitation, I believe if the coming period is neutral to even slightly positive this stock is 20% higher, it is still being compressed because people are scared, they got burned badly the last few years on this stock, that sentiment does not disappear simply because the stock is up 100% from the lows, it was trading at Banrupt valuations, a lot of people still believe this is the " dead cat bounce " and maybe actually this suits MSFT well, i feel they want the company. time will tell. Good Luck to all owning or hanging in there, if you had the stock for a long period and are Long way above the market, you may as well hang on and ride it all the way, this could still be coming good. on Nokia it's time to take a bit of the helicopter-view and remove yrself from the daily print on the Board.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
I turned at 2,75 euro - after i went and had a look at the major stock holders , i noticed that they were mostly Scandinavian pension funds and investment funds, then i recalled what MSFT did for Apple in 97 ( i have been around 62 years old ) by providing them with a large cash injection and credit lines, their mistake was at the time not to convert that loan in an option to acquire Stock, otherwise they would have been one of the major owners of Apple today , the rest is history Apple repaid the loans and overtook MSFT in a major way. I don't think they will make the same mistake again, i believe MSFT was close to take-over Nokia, but last minute on the dotted line the deal was pulled, i assume it had to do with due diligence, so MSFT came again with a financing pact now for Nokia, i have to believe they are not going to sit and watch Nokia turn without getting a piece of the action, hence i believe there is some deal, the question is timing and price, Nokia has to solve their problems , they are working at it. Also , i noticed that after resurrection and Nokia went up to 3,50 euro ( 4,50 $ ) and slipped again, none of the Scandinavian investment funds panicked and sold out, tells me maybe there are some insurances from MSFT, could well be the Scandinavians have a put option with MSFT and MSFT a call option on their shares. ( not uncommon as a go in between to safe guard the stock for both parties to get out/get in ), due diligence might be the key word here, if the accountants can make it fly, it may well be MSFT's to take. that's why i am Long both Nokia as well as MSFT, bcse i don't know how the transfer cud take place, if and when... but there is no doubt if MSFT has a deal they will pay handsomely for the balance of the stock in the open market, but i wud rather hedge my bets, so i am long the partnership MSFT and Nokia and so far , so good, MSFT is with me 25% and Nokia 5%. Nokia is no longer a trading stock to me, it's now wait and see - MSFT i feel one has to trade around the stock, but Always from the Long side. even if i am way off and completely wrong with my thesis, i still feel Nokia has turned. main concern is their supply line in getting all these nice phones in the store, they will sell. there is 20% room in the smart Phone market to take, the other 80% is for Apple and Samsung to fight over. Nokia has sunk so deep that even the slightest pick uo has a massive impact on the stock. people are wrong looking at Nokia's P/L ( there are still issues to clean ) people should look at their phones and the sales volume. sorry to be so longwinded
feels like the stock wants to move up, it's building that kind of momentum for another run, technically it looks quite good, it' s holding this recent rally and is not retracing towards the 400 level, it feels like giving up on the down momentum, which confirms it may have bottomed.
Apple is actually starting to look friendly on the charts, it is time to get in and add on dips.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
the one thing to keep in mind that there is so much room for the Nokia/MSFT combination to grow in the smart Phone and tablet segment, as the biggest players Apple and Samsung are so overwhelmingly dominant that it is impossible for them to grow any further, unless they take market share from each other, there is Always that "other" 20% available and that is what Nokia is aiming for and even the smallest success should have an enormous impact on the company , as Nokia has fallen so deep.
Now , i believe it is wise to not just be Long Nokia, but also be Long MSFT, be Long the partnership, because although i believe MSFT and Nokia have the same goals, i am not sure they have the same agenda's, MSFT may be very pleased to see Nokia do extremely well as a company to grow and also clean itself from past problems, but may well be interested in keeping Nokia's share price depressed, so that if and when the time is appropriate to acquire it, it will be at the most advantageous price to MSFT. so better safe than sorry, hedge yr bets and be Long the combination, it's a winning team.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
Nokia went through change, it has been steadily working at it's weaknesses, reducing overheads, reducing operating expenses, reducing debt, working together with a financially strong strategic partner who can bring know how to their business and take developing costs away from them, they have another financially sound partner in Siemens. although your article gives good information, i think you have drawn the wrong conclusion, Nokia is actually solving problems, it is becoming competitive and it's making very smart looking phones at an affordable price in a wide range, it's turning the business around.
Yes, there are still issues, but they are working at them there biggest issue is getting their supply-line organized, that's an absolute must and something which has to be their number one priority, they are still the number 2 world-wide seller of mobile phones, so they can handle volume, now get the pipe-line in order and get these phones not just on displays, but get them stocked in shops. Nokia is by no means going sideways in a trading range, to me Nokia is building momentum for an enormous move on the upside, they are almost crossing that line where volume turns into profits, with MSFT on a roll , this partnership will succeed. i see Nokia trading towards 5 $ within 6 months and 8$ within 12 months and there is Always the possibility MSFT taking the business when Nokia has cleaned their balance sheet, so due diligence can pass. MSFT is more than just a Bank to Nokia , they have made that mistake once by providing credit to Apple without share option to convert the loans into stock, i can't believe they will be doing that same mistake now with Nokia. Looking good for Nokia, Long and Holding.
good comment, except for the Google bashing, a stock which trade at new highs should be treated with respect - you are not making Apple look better by belittling another stock, other than that your comment is more valid today at 440 then a few months ago when the stock was at 600 Apple is down, but far from out and i am about to move towards the long side.
yes, it is - so what ? it has worked and it's all about timing, if the FED had pulled their sponsoring program 3 or 5 months ago the stock market would likely be 20% lower today, but if the FED abandons the sponsoring now, i am not convinced the stock market will tank by 20%, it may retrace somewhat, but the picture is such that it could well bounce back. the danger is not so much for stocks, but far more for Bonds, especially junk-bonds, there is going to be an absolute bloodbath and no way out. Paulo, these guys are good - they pick the moment and that moment will be determined if the markets can take it and obviously there will be a reaction, but US enterprise is making money and lots of it, they are bouncing back and with the deficit likely declining with own energy exploration in Gas and Oil, they have done it.we could have been in an absolute disastrous situation back in 2009 and they did it, they saved the financial world, they prevented a collapse of the Banking Industry, it's an amazing and fantastic job they did. it's all about timing, especially perceived negative or bad news.
BlackBerry Cannot Match Competitor Power In India [View article]
BBRY is still going sideways between 14,50 and 15,50 in order to flush the shorts out the stock needs to go above 16,50/17,00 there must be massive buy stops at those levels - for the moment owning BBRY stock at these prices gives little joy and there are better plays out there. i would however buy the stock if it moves above 16,50 the short position is so huge that once the covering starts the stock will hit 20 $to me BBRY is a technical play - the fundamentals to me are better than they were, but still not convincing to determine whether BBRY is a 15 $ stock or 35 $ stock.
the author should release his papers on AMZN, MSFT and now APPLE all at once when the stock markets start to turn for the down.
this author, good as he may be can only write with a "negative" undertone for stocks, i have read his papers on AMZN, on MSFT , which was his worst, he predicted the long term decline of that stock, just as it took off for a 30% rally and now Apple. it feels to me the author has a "bear" mentality, nothing wrong with that, but very unhandy if you release articles in the best bull market ever., no matter how well prepared these papers are, people only will remember the negativity of the document versus the share price of the stock and then your work sucks for result.
the landscape has changed , not just for Apple but for all participants. the difference is Apple keeps everything close to the chest, numbers, information , just everything and they do report or inform only when appropriate.
Samsung is full of noise and have an excellent PR department, they are aggressive , smart and successful . they combine volume with profits.
but when it comes down to the numbers as reported by the companies, the credibility is 9 out of 10 for Apple and 5 out of 10 for Samsung, at least to me, i think ( without any proof i must admit) that Samsung besides being an excellent creative copier is also excellent in creatively promoting their numbers.
Samsung is definitely on a roll right now, but that's because Apple has little exciting to show for and Nokia with the help of MSFT are just starting to fight their way back in the game and with some success.
I am neutral on Apple's stock right now, but i am close to changing for the Long-side. Apple has been in a downtrend for 9 months, but it's starting to give up some of that downward momentum, if Apple does not start to slide back to the lows very soon the stock may well reverse and start a new uptrend, the odds of that happening is increasing by the week. Apple is far from finished and far from being out played by the competition. Apple may well come back with vengeance. Neutral on the stock ready to buy.
Microsoft To Apple: 'Welcome To The Club' [View article]
interesting paper: i am not sure Apple will go thru the same motions as MSFT
when MSFT traded back in 2000 at it's all time high of 55 $ per share, the pe was 45 ( if i am not mistaken ) Apple when it traded at it's all time high in Sep 2012 @ 700 $ the pe was 13
the difference as such between MSFT moving down to 25/30$ and into it's lost decade was because the stock was over-valued, APPLE came down from 700 to 400$ because it was over-owned. MSFT got it's adjustment in share value, Apple got cleaned from being too Long. Apple has been in a downtrend for the last 9 months, it's now forming a base, if it does not continue with it's downward momentum, Apple may well go back up, i am not convinced Apple will move into the MSFT coma, i think Apple , if it does not follow thru on it's down momentum is going to reverse and may well start a new rally.I am moving from negative to Neutral, ready to buy if it starts to move up.
MSFT has turned, there is no doubt the stock is in an uptrend.
It's Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class [View article]
yes, you are both right, but there was no option back in 2008/09 the financial world was on the verge of collapse and the Banking System World wide would have completely derailed, so under the circumstances the FED and other Central Banks have done an amazing job, the world would have been in complete chaos and that was prevented. the price for all this ? well it's been put off-balance sheet so to say and maybe we are heading towards another calamity, but there are 2 economies, the one in the field which is hurting most people for Jobs and their personal values and then there is the stock-market, that's the "paper-economy" , that's a different story, that's the only thing people can own, even if it sells-off and that's why it will continue to eventually move higher, it's not a bubble it is a change in asset-value, the Fed and the other Central Banks have created a monster, but it's the only value there is, so we will continue to buy it. Money is made so cheap that it continuous to pour into the exchanges, unfortunately the objective of having it going in to the field economy and get people Jobs and pushing Industry has failed and that is what we are witnessing here in Europe. so as always the last means remaining to the Government to keep people calm is to give them benefits if they can't create jobs and for that they need money and Gold can be sold for money and that's what we are going to do, stupid absolutely, but then distressed selling never was a clever move.
It's Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class [View article]
sorry, i don' agree - Gold has traded during 2000 and 2008 @ 400 to 650 $ , it shot up because of the financial crisis and it was considered a safe haven, it broke out of it's long term sideways movement at 750 $ and shot up to a peak of 1900 $, ever since it's gone down, with the normal corrective moves.I was not specifically talking about yr position, i was talking in general . you may well have bought at 500 $, but the price did not go to 1900 $ because everybody was in at 500 $, i bet you there are far more longs way above 1200 $ than below a 1000$ . Gold is not coming down because of buyers wanting to get in, it's coming down because of sellers wanting to get out and at every new low for the move another bunch of dedicated Longs get out. as far as Gold repatriating goes by Germany, France, the low lands and almost all other countries in the Eurozone out of their holdings in the US and the UK has to do with the fact that they feel less threatened by the former East bloc, but more threatened by the economic disastrous situation we find ourselves in and the one thing we own plenty of is Gold, we are going to sell, especially as it's a dollar quoted commodity and the dollar strengthens against the euro and our Governments will not be sellers because of price, but because of circumstances, but hey i am sure a lot of people have been buying gold all the way from 500 up to 1900 and all the way from 1900 down to ..?.. accumulating and never selling just holding it, no dividend, no return just sitting on it and that gives a good save feeling, that's OK , it's part of someone's portfolio, fine.but that is not what this article is about, this article is about reasoning why Gold is out of favor and selling off, hence my comment.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
i think these days it has however all changed, there used to be a time that one had to be extremely careful whilst integrating upstream and downstream not to be perceived by ones clients or suppliers to become their competitor, but today ?
everybody is in with everybody while at the same time the court cases are flying around, the Oil companies started it, when their Gas Stations became complete super markets and Restaurants.
as far as the Authorities go in Europe, yes there is an issue, but the issue I believe is not for MSFT owning Nokia, it would be if MSFT was not willing to make available their systems to 3rd parties, that is perceived to be a "cornering" policy and excluding others to have the opportunity for the same entry.
anyway, let's not go down the road of the law makers in Europe, we are ( presently) mostly governed by Socialist parties, yet we are willing to dwarf anybody else on the Globe if it comes down to help US INC to avoid US taxes, yet we want the FED to bail the Western world out of recession.
Nuts -
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
i truly believe MSFT wanted to buy Nonia, but could not get it by the accountants, there is no doubt Nokia had a lot of very questionable receivables on their balance sheet at arguable valuations (?) who knows ?..and yes there is the Siemens issue, but that's moved a bit to the back burner and it's making now rather than bleeding.... so MSFT comes up with this financing scheme.
as far as the Board goes, I have seen takeovers and Management always came out good, shares could always be swapped, if the new owners wanted to go on with the present Directors for shares in newco or the parent company.
we will see, the matter of the fact is, that Nokia is coming to life and here in the low lands of Europe as well as our neighboring countries Nokia is still a huge name, their phones really look good on the displays, but where is the stock ? and that should be Nokia's priority get these phones in the shops, they will sell and don't forget Nokia share price still reflects all the negatives and hesitation, I believe if the coming period is neutral to even slightly positive this stock is 20% higher, it is still being compressed because people are scared, they got burned badly the last few years on this stock, that sentiment does not disappear simply because the stock is up 100% from the lows, it was trading at Banrupt valuations, a lot of people still believe this is the " dead cat bounce " and maybe actually this suits MSFT well, i feel they want the company.
time will tell. Good Luck to all owning or hanging in there, if you had the stock for a long period and are Long way above the market, you may as well hang on and ride it all the way, this could still be coming good.
on Nokia it's time to take a bit of the helicopter-view and remove yrself from the daily print on the Board.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
I don't think they will make the same mistake again, i believe MSFT was close to take-over Nokia, but last minute on the dotted line the deal was pulled, i assume it had to do with due diligence, so MSFT came again with a financing pact now for Nokia, i have to believe they are not going to sit and watch Nokia turn without getting a piece of the action, hence i believe there is some deal, the question is timing and price, Nokia has to solve their problems , they are working at it.
Also , i noticed that after resurrection and Nokia went up to 3,50 euro ( 4,50 $ ) and slipped again, none of the Scandinavian investment funds panicked and sold out, tells me maybe there are some insurances from MSFT, could well be the Scandinavians have a put option with MSFT and MSFT a call option on their shares.
( not uncommon as a go in between to safe guard the stock for both parties to get out/get in ), due diligence might be the key word here, if the accountants can make it fly, it may well be MSFT's to take.
that's why i am Long both Nokia as well as MSFT, bcse i don't know how the transfer cud take place, if and when...
but there is no doubt if MSFT has a deal they will pay handsomely for the balance of the stock in the open market, but i wud rather hedge my bets, so i am long the partnership MSFT and Nokia and so far , so good, MSFT is with me 25% and Nokia 5%. Nokia is no longer a trading stock to me, it's now wait and see - MSFT i feel one has to trade around the stock, but Always from the Long side.
even if i am way off and completely wrong with my thesis, i still feel Nokia has turned. main concern is their supply line in getting all these nice phones in the store, they will sell.
there is 20% room in the smart Phone market to take, the other 80% is for Apple and Samsung to fight over.
Nokia has sunk so deep that even the slightest pick uo has a massive impact on the stock.
people are wrong looking at Nokia's P/L ( there are still issues to clean ) people should look at their phones and the sales volume.
sorry to be so longwinded
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
Apple is actually starting to look friendly on the charts, it is time to get in and add on dips.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
Now , i believe it is wise to not just be Long Nokia, but also be Long MSFT, be Long the partnership, because although i believe MSFT and Nokia have the same goals, i am not sure they have the same agenda's, MSFT may be very pleased to see Nokia do extremely well as a company to grow and also clean itself from past problems, but may well be interested in keeping Nokia's share price depressed, so that if and when the time is appropriate to acquire it, it will be at the most advantageous price to MSFT.
so better safe than sorry, hedge yr bets and be Long the combination, it's a winning team.
Is There An Easy Solution To Nokia's Problems? [View article]
although your article gives good information, i think you have drawn the wrong conclusion, Nokia is actually solving problems, it is becoming competitive and it's making very smart looking phones at an affordable price in a wide range, it's turning the business around.
Yes, there are still issues, but they are working at them there biggest issue is getting their supply-line organized, that's an absolute must and something which has to be their number one priority, they are still the number 2 world-wide seller of mobile phones, so they can handle volume, now get the pipe-line in order and get these phones not just on displays, but get them stocked in shops.
Nokia is by no means going sideways in a trading range, to me Nokia is building momentum for an enormous move on the upside, they are almost crossing that line where volume turns into profits, with MSFT on a roll , this partnership will succeed.
i see Nokia trading towards 5 $ within 6 months and 8$ within 12 months and there is Always the possibility MSFT taking the business when Nokia has cleaned their balance sheet, so due diligence can pass. MSFT is more than just a Bank to Nokia , they have made that mistake once by providing credit to Apple without share option to convert the loans into stock, i can't believe they will be doing that same mistake now with Nokia.
Looking good for Nokia, Long and Holding.
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
you are not making Apple look better by belittling another stock, other than that your comment is more valid today at 440 then a few months ago when the stock was at 600
Apple is down, but far from out and i am about to move towards the long side.
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
the danger is not so much for stocks, but far more for Bonds, especially junk-bonds, there is going to be an absolute bloodbath and no way out.
Paulo, these guys are good - they pick the moment and that moment will be determined if the markets can take it and obviously there will be a reaction, but US enterprise is making money and lots of it, they are bouncing back and with the deficit likely declining with own energy exploration in Gas and Oil, they have done it.we could have been in an absolute disastrous situation back in 2009 and they did it, they saved the financial world, they prevented a collapse of the Banking Industry, it's an amazing and fantastic job they did. it's all about timing, especially perceived negative or bad news.
BlackBerry Cannot Match Competitor Power In India [View article]
for the moment owning BBRY stock at these prices gives little joy and there are better plays out there.
i would however buy the stock if it moves above 16,50 the short position is so huge that once the covering starts the stock will hit 20 $to me BBRY is a technical play - the fundamentals to me are better than they were, but still not convincing to determine whether BBRY is a 15 $ stock or 35 $ stock.
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
this author, good as he may be can only write with a "negative" undertone for stocks, i have read his papers on AMZN, on MSFT , which was his worst, he predicted the long term decline of that stock, just as it took off for a 30% rally and now Apple.
it feels to me the author has a "bear" mentality, nothing wrong with that, but very unhandy if you release articles in the best bull market ever., no matter how well prepared these papers are, people only will remember the negativity of the document versus the share price of the stock and then your work sucks for result.
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
i put my money on Apple
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
the difference is Apple keeps everything close to the chest, numbers, information , just everything and they do report or inform only when appropriate.
Samsung is full of noise and have an excellent PR department, they are aggressive , smart and successful .
they combine volume with profits.
but when it comes down to the numbers as reported by the companies, the credibility is 9 out of 10 for Apple and 5 out of 10 for Samsung, at least to me, i think ( without any proof i must admit) that Samsung besides being an excellent creative copier is also excellent in creatively promoting their numbers.
Samsung is definitely on a roll right now, but that's because Apple has little exciting to show for and Nokia with the help of MSFT are just starting to fight their way back in the game and with some success.
I am neutral on Apple's stock right now, but i am close to changing for the Long-side.
Apple has been in a downtrend for 9 months, but it's starting to give up some of that downward momentum, if Apple does not start to slide back to the lows very soon the stock may well reverse and start a new uptrend, the odds of that happening is increasing by the week.
Apple is far from finished and far from being out played by the competition.
Apple may well come back with vengeance.
Neutral on the stock ready to buy.
Microsoft To Apple: 'Welcome To The Club' [View article]
when MSFT traded back in 2000 at it's all time high of 55 $ per share, the pe was 45 ( if i am not mistaken )
Apple when it traded at it's all time high in Sep 2012 @ 700 $ the pe was 13
the difference as such between MSFT moving down to 25/30$ and into it's lost decade was because the stock was over-valued, APPLE came down from 700 to 400$ because it was over-owned.
MSFT got it's adjustment in share value, Apple got cleaned from being too Long.
Apple has been in a downtrend for the last 9 months, it's now forming a base, if it does not continue with it's downward momentum, Apple may well go back up, i am not convinced Apple will move into the MSFT coma, i think Apple , if it does not follow thru on it's down momentum is going to reverse and may well start a new rally.I am moving from negative to Neutral, ready to buy if it starts to move up.
MSFT has turned, there is no doubt the stock is in an uptrend.
It's Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class [View article]
so as always the last means remaining to the Government to keep people calm is to give them benefits if they can't create jobs and for that they need money and Gold can be sold for money and that's what we are going to do, stupid absolutely, but then distressed selling never was a clever move.
It's Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class [View article]
you may well have bought at 500 $, but the price did not go to 1900 $ because everybody was in at 500 $, i bet you there are far more longs way above 1200 $ than below a 1000$ .
Gold is not coming down because of buyers wanting to get in, it's coming down because of sellers wanting to get out and at every new low for the move another bunch of dedicated Longs get out.
as far as Gold repatriating goes by Germany, France, the low lands and almost all other countries in the Eurozone out of their holdings in the US and the UK has to do with the fact that they feel less threatened by the former East bloc, but more threatened by the economic disastrous situation we find ourselves in and the one thing we own plenty of is Gold, we are going to sell, especially as it's a dollar quoted commodity and the dollar strengthens against the euro and our Governments will not be sellers because of price, but because of circumstances, but hey i am sure a lot of people have been buying gold all the way from 500 up to 1900 and all the way from 1900 down to ..?.. accumulating and never selling just holding it, no dividend, no return just sitting on it and that gives a good save feeling, that's OK , it's part of someone's portfolio, fine.but that is not what this article is about, this article is about reasoning why Gold is out of favor and selling off, hence my comment.