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  • How The Experts Were Wrong: Gold Failed To Hold $1,400 And The Taylor Rule  [View article]
    i hear what you are saying, but i disagree the correlation between the stock market and bonds is gone, we have the Fed and other central Banks around the Globe to thank for that.
    you should not look back in history at past performance, there is a "new financial world order " at play, we have the financial crisis to thank for that - from now on, ever since the FED saved the world from total financial collapse in 2009 - Politics are ruling the economic environment, the G7 or G8 and future G10 will decide who can do what, Japan can now sponsor their economy with un-limited amounts with the approval of the other nations, they can artificiallt devalue their currency, so did the States with the QE sponsoring, there is no correlation no more to normal supply and demand to factor a value, that's gone.

    the stock market, besides normal healthy pull-backs cannot really collapse, it's not possible, it will continue to seek new highs as it has done for the last 18 months, we are re-writing the laws of value and the value is in the stock market, artificially OFCOURSE, unhealthy OFCOURSE, but one must be insane to fight it, it will kill you, so many people have been fighting this stock market and they got slaughtered, the demand for performing assets is ever growing.
    Gold does not fall into that category, Gold is a safe haven, the need for that is gone, for now at least, unless North Korea goes off the bend and does something stupid, or any other nation getting out of control , the appetite for Gold is over, there are far better rewarding investments out there, as has been the case for the last 18 months, nothing has changed and i am not clever enough to outsmart the market or pick the right moment to anticipate a change of trend, i go with the flow.
    Jun 1, 2013. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Experts Were Wrong: Gold Failed To Hold $1,400 And The Taylor Rule  [View article]
    nice comment, excellent explanation but for me too high content of " Machiavelli " thesis.
    Gold and Silver are commodities and they go thru boom and bust cycles, the reason the open positions reduced so enormously on the long side is because the "fear-factor" of the crisis is long gone.
    the stock markets have totally out-performed the commodities for the last years.
    the crisis is far from being behind us, but the fear of a collapse of the financial and banking world has gone.
    Gold for a almost a decade at the beginning of this century traded between 350 and 650 $, the "financial crisis, with the world wide collapse of stocks and all currencies going Hayward made people flee into Gold, taking the commodity up from 750 $ to 1900$ in a virtual straight move, it hit the highs in Sep 2011 and ever since it's on a down as stock way out-performed the precious metal.
    Gold will continue to gravitate lower, it will not collapse, but will decline toward 1200 and maybe even a 1000$
    the money is in the stock market, there will be set-backs and huge corrections, but high dividend yielding stocks will keep the exchange motoring.
    anyway, that's how i see it, i admit i am short Gold and have been for a long time, i see no reason whatsoever to cover, it's been a fantastic trade.
    Jun 1, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Experts Were Wrong: Gold Failed To Hold $1,400 And The Taylor Rule  [View article]
    Gold has been in a "bear-trend " for the last 450 $, the bounces we are witnessing are short-covering rallies and are an opportunity to sell.
    there is no indication whatsoever that Gold has bottomed or turned, it's still making new lows for the move and at every new low more Longs are throwing in the towel.
    in a down move there are always bottom pickers, but they mostly get burned.
    Gold is still pointing to much lower prices and 1200$ is on the cards.
    Europe is in a mess, unemployment amongst the young people is sky-rocketing in Southern nations, France's Industry is crumbling, we have a Euro which is completely over-valued, trading at 30% premium to the USD and paralyzing most Nations exports, the only thing we have plenty of is Gold, guess what we are going to do in the coming months, to keep benefits flowing to the unemployed and to keep our budgets in line.
    Gold is the last metal you want to be Long of, you want to buy a precious metal buy Silver, stay away from Gold, the biggest long , the Eurozone has not even started yet, we are just in the process of repatriating our Gold reserves from the US and the UK.
    why do you think Soros ( a European ) got out and Paulson and Einhorn are still in.
    anyway, if one wants to be Long Gold, buy some put options as an insurance premium and hope that's yr worst move.
    Jun 1, 2013. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Worried About Nokia's Long-Term Prospects  [View article]
    Business evolves, so Nokia and MSFT must make this work, especially for Nokia's sake.
    Kodak had more patent rights than any other company on this Globe in the end that did not save them, they read the market completely wrong and that killed them.
    Nokia is in a similar situation, the difference is that Nokia still operates in a growth market, whereas Kodak continued to focus on a dying business.
    that's the edge Nokia has and that's why the long term Scandinavian Pension Funds which are Nokia's main share holders still give Nokia the benefit of the doubt, but it's becoming a fine line.
    These Investors will now be focused more on share price behavior than ever before and so they should, Nokia cannot slip back to the lows, that will kill all confidence.

    I was very surprised to see that one comment from RBC had such an impact on the share price , especially at these still very compressed levels for Nokia, that does not speak well at all for the stock.

    I am Long and Bullish on the Nokia/MSFT combination and I am willing to sit it out for the long term, i have also removed myself from the daily fluctuations, but there is a cut-off point for me, i will not let Nokia burn all my cash, I am willing to risk 30%, for me that translates to 1,95 euro ( or $ 2,50 at present exchange rate ) if the stock goes below that level, i'll take my loss and get out.
    anyway, i still believe it will come good and hope this is just a mere set-back in an overall changed trend.

    Jun 1, 2013. 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Worried About Nokia's Long-Term Prospects  [View article]
    this is Nokia's last shot at the mob phone industry and they have taken the decision to do it with MSFT, MSFT is the winner here and they have a soft-option with limited risk.
    the mob phone business is only profitable for Apple and Samsung , bcse of the smart phones, the Chinese over the coming years will take the under-belly of the market.

    Nokia's strength is that they are more than just a phone maker and as such for share holders there will always be a rest-value, but the chance of Nokia regaining profitability in the phone biz is reducing by the month.
    Nokia is now back in "bear" territory as far as it's share price goes , it's lost 1 euro from it's recent high and it's just a little over 1 euro up from it's all time low.
    I am Long Nokia and MSFT, i am doing fine on MSFT and that subsidizes my losses on Nokia, but i have to admit the share price behavior of Nokia is absolutely terrible and one can continue to look at all the bullish factors for the Nokia stock out there, but the share price behavior is telling us this stock is heading back for big trouble.
    they need a change of tactics, maybe they should consider ring-fencing the mobile division , but they need to do something if the long term investment funds , mainly Scandinavian Pension Funds
    have had enough it could get very ugly.
    I am long Nokia and i will hold out for the long haul, but the stock is worrying, i am still counting on MSFT taking control.
    May 31, 2013. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Worried About Nokia's Long-Term Prospects  [View article]
    @ Author: Political paper, you are hedging your bets after analysts come out with sell recommendations.
    May 31, 2013. 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How A Beer Game Explains Nokia's Supply Chain  [View article]
    impressive paper - congratulations !

    there is no doubt the Achilles heel for Nokia seems to be their supply-line and that is actually quite amazing for a company which is still the number 2 world wide supplier of mobile phones and has for decades been the numero uno.

    so to me the problem ..why all these nice new smart-phones are only available on displays and not in stock ... must have a different reason than merely the supply.

    i think Nokia's financial position is still extremely fragile and therefore they are in a catch 22 situation .. do we ship first or do we sell first .. well Nokia should realize that they are at war, they are still fighting for survival, they cannot act hesitant and that's unfortunately exactly what they are doing.

    in the world of production and sales, the cash-flow has always been the most important, more so than profits, a positive strong cash-flow allows manufacturers to operate their production up-front, as not all producers/manufacturers have this luxury to produce up-front , the business has invented the word " consignment " and it's totally beyond me why Nokia is not "consigning" massive amount of production towards their sales agents on the basis of a 35% or 50% pre-payment.
    Nokia should realize that they have some fantastic good looking smart phones, yet they are there on displays and NO stock, this is Nokia's moment in time to bounce back, there are no new phones from Apple and Samsung to compete at present, but the window is closing, they have this phenomenal opportunity to seize market share and they are blowing it, bcse of NO stock.

    I am Long Nokia and MSFT, because i believe in this Alliance, however if they screw-up on this one, they deserve to get whipped and Elop should be fired.
    May 31, 2013. 10:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Strength Is Being Underestimated  [View article]
    I agree, there is a difference between buying a product from a company, because you like it and want to use it, or buying shares in a company, the latter is all about making money and my only loyalty is to my cash.

    but what is the US situation, when you buy on-line or order in the shop, is the supply available within days, weeks or months ? or is it also a " don't call us, we call you when it's arrived " ?

    and what irritates me most, is when they say it's sold out, horse-manure it's not sold out, it's not there.
    May 31, 2013. 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Strength Is Being Underestimated  [View article]
    that's an interesting comment and one people should pay attention to -
    i live in the low-lands of Europe and for months Nokia is not able to get their supply-line in order, the phones are looking good on displays, you can order them, but the shops cannot inform you as to when the stock will arrive.
    if Nokia screws-up on this phenomenal opportunity, whereas there is NO competition from anything new coming out of Apple or Samsung and people want to buy their phones and their phones will finally arrive at the same time when Apple announces the new iPhone 5s or 6 to hit the market than Nokia will be in an uphill battle and the outcome will be ugly.
    I am Long the Nokia/MSFT combination , but i will find it unforgivable if they mess-up on this one.
    Nokia has the momentum on their side, they better seize this opportunity, or they will fall back hard.
    I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, but that supply-line is Nokia' Achilles heal
    May 31, 2013. 01:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Strength Is Being Underestimated  [View article]
    there is no doubt the stock is still very fragile, analysts with their recommendations can influence the share price with ease, therefore Nokia is a good trading stock for short term traders, whom with relative little volume can push the stock either way, hence the stock has a tendency to over-react.

    if one believes in the Nokia/MSFT alliance this stock is a buy & hold and then the entry price whether it's 4 $ or 3$ is cheap, Nokia is still a punished stock and that is reflected in the share price, as such any fundamental news showing a stabilizing or improving trend will have a major upward impact on the share price, until we get that news, the share is at the mercy of the analysts and the punters.

    Long Nokia , bcse i feel i will double my money from here, so the risk/reward is attractive and even if Nokia cannot achieve it on it's own merit, than MSFT will buy it and i still come out ahead of the game.
    it's a win - win to me at a low risk.
    May 30, 2013. 08:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Make A Turnaround With Lumia 925?  [View article]
    Nokia and BBRY for that matter of fact have fallen so far behind and given in so much in stock value that even a small success is likely to have a mega impact on their stock-price, but is it lasting and will it be a turnaround for the company.

    as Long as Apple, Google and Samsung are sensible about competing , then there is room enough for Nokia to come in and take some market share in the profitable smart-Phone segment and that could be extremely rewarding for shareholders at present depressed prices, share improvements of a 100% up is well possible.

    Apple is not going to be stupid and compress margins, but Google is making some strange noises and if they are going after market share and start a war with Samsung then Apple has no option but to join and then it may get ugly and very difficult for Nokia and BBRY to make any headway.

    Not easy, but at these levels Nokia looks like a good stock to own.
    May 30, 2013. 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France  [View article]
    BBRY is one of these stocks where the jury is still out, the stock has re-emerged from the dead so to say and now it has to prove whether it can play a meaningful role in this competitive business, the enormous short position on the stock, unmatched presently by virtually no other public traded company on this Globe says that clearly. BBRY is still a huge name and some are saying one has to wait for 2016 or 2017, but i fear the market will not allow them that much time, for BBRY it's really now or never within the next 12 months.
    the critical number is not so much whether they will make money or not the coming quarters, the critical number will be the amount of phones they are able to sell, that's what will be decisive for BBRY as a company and as a stock whether if will be heading north of 20$ and the company has turned for good, or slip back down to much lower levels.
    as such the question is : what is that critical sales number ?
    May 30, 2013. 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France  [View article]
    @ author: i never said the shorts are going to be right on this stock, i am merely stating that the shorts are not looking for a mere price correction on the downside, they are banking on something much bigger, they are banking on a failure, they may well be wrong, but that's what they are going for, i come out of this business, it's been my whole professional life, these guys work with stops, not on sentiment or numbers, one good quarter or good result is not shying them away.
    that's why i also believe the stock will explode if these stops are ever hit, it actually pays to buy some calls at 16,50 or 17$, the problem is the time-frame.the good news is the shorts cannot increase their position ant further in any meaningful way, there are no more shares to borrow, they want to add to their short position now they have to do it thru options, lethal , if they ever were to do that, than the stock could run out of control on the upside.anyway, one way or the other all involved in BBRY are going to be in for some rocky times.Good luck to all.
    May 29, 2013. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France  [View article]
    i am not negative on BBRY and i am not saying the shorts are right bcse they are professionals, i am merely stating that to me something is not right, i think i was clear on that . i am just concluding that as the shorts have not panicked a few months ago when BBRY released their numbers, which were quite encouraging and positive and a few weeks ago when the stock moved up towards 16 $, again they gave no sign of wanting to cover.
    there is no doubt in my mind that there must be very heavy buy-stops from the shorts somewhere above 16,50/17,00 and if they can be triggered the stock is likely to explode and could well run-up to 20$ plus, the short-position is immense.
    the question is who is going to take it there, or what is going to take it  to hit these stops.
    that's all i am saying and it's clear the shorts are banking on something more than just a set-back in price.
    i would be inclined to buy the stock, but the share price performance worries me, if a stock does not move up on good news, it's in trouble.i am neutral on the stock, but if i had to take a position, it would be Long rather than short, i admit it would be bcse of that massive short position.
    May 29, 2013. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France  [View article]
    something just does not add-up, ever since BBRY launched their latest 2 smart phones the reviews in general have been good, the sales numbers are satisfactory and the outlook is not negative, there is a huge short position on the stock and the stock is actually attractively priced, BBRY is sound as far as cash-flow goes and has no debt and YET the share price behaves like S..T

    well in my experience when a stock has actually quite positive news going for it and the share price is not going up, especially with that enormous short position in the stock, something is very wrong.
    as such I am no buyer of the stock, although it's very tempting to get in, something just does not feel right, this stock should already have been on it's way , fishing for buy-stops, a short position of that magnitude is too tempting for the Trade and Large Specs not to give it a Go, but they aren't, that to me is worrying, tells me the shorts are professionals and they are not in there for the price, but because they feel BBRY has structural problems and that the present upbeat mood will be  short-lived.
    May 29, 2013. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment