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wiesje

wiesje
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  • Update: Petrobras Toxicity Spreads As Moody's Sings The Blues [View article]
    thanks for your paper and good call back in September, contrary to what all the major analysts were predicting for PBR

    I am aware PBR is a very high risk share and I am also aware of the political risk in this stock, but imho at 5 x earnings and with a valuation of mkt cap versus book at 30% and even if Book is over-valued by 30% and with the Latin American Macho pride , only 5 years ago the Brazilians claimed that PBR would be one of the worlds largest cap companies, this company together with Gazprom, another Political high risk share that even trades at 2 x earnings , are offering a once in a life-time opportunity these are the only 2 large energy players whom are likely to double in value in 18 months, where all others are at best staying put to regular gains if that.

    so it's all down to risk/reward and ones appetite for risk, I like PBR and I like Gazprom, I think neither will go under , the downside from here is 25%,  the upside a 100% , good odds to me and presently there are only 3 majors in the Oil and Gas sector I own, the another one is Statoil from Norway.
    my intake, look for 3 over punished stocks in the same sector - in this case Oil and Gas - , if 2 out of 3 pay-off , you are a big time winner, I admit my strategy is more of a punter than a trader.

    look forward to your next paper

    ps
    Long PBR @ 6,85 $
    Long Gazprom @ 3,90 euro
    Long Statoil @ 129 NOK ( norwegian Krone )
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]

    I am amazed to read how many so much dislike BBRY, even if you don't like their products and have no faith in what they are doing, you cannot deny that ever since Chen joined he has stopped the bleeding and turned the share price around from 6 to 10 $ and now that the company is clean and sellable you advise the Longs to abandon the stock, nuts , now its time to add to existing longs or get in, the stock is just warming up.
    this move from 6 to 10$ is merely moving out of the overkill zone , damage done thanks to the previous CEO.
    it is the shorts you should be worried about not the longs, if they start cashing on their assets or partner with a strategic player this will fly.
    we just witnissed how furious the stock can react and that was just on a rumor.
    Jan 19, 2015. 01:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]

    exactly and that's why they will stabilize the stock at 10 to 12 to sell or partner it at 15 to 20 $

    that's Prem's turf a numbers game and that's why I am in the stock.
    Jan 18, 2015. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]

    @ Azazello, people said the same about Nokia, Vestas, JCP , Apple 15 ( years ago ), Sybase and so on...

    not every company in trouble is a Kodak or Radioshack story , there are companies in trouble who can rebound, its down to the guys running it and the ones owning it, whether they can swing it.
    its a question of laying off risk , whilst still maintaining a presence and that's exactly what they did with the Foxconn deal, it's called hedging, as I said before Prem may not know how to run a tech company, but he is a Fund Manager, a Money man, a risk Manager and he took on Chen for a reason and that is not to see BBRY as a comeback Kid regaining the top spot in the world, No, Prem is in there to get out with a bundle of cash, so I appreciate yr thoughts, but for my money I stick with the Guy who is known as Mr. Fix it and the Guy who is in for the Money, the first one has a proven track record of making companies sellable, the second one is a self made billionaire .

    good luck, you must be surprised BBRY is not trading at 3 but 10$ , I assume ?
    Jan 18, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]
    I think you are too negative, the company is definitely stabilized, there is no further bleeding, as for growing from here that's another story that will be difficult without help, I fear , but they are still in the game, be it on another playing-field than the Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi and Lenovo's of this world, but I believe that at present to be somewhat irrelevant.

    I do not believe it really matters whether the next Phone or tablet sells well or not, of course it would be a psychological boost for the stock if they did sell well, but that's really very relative, what is well , when you look at the 4 names I just mentioned above ?

    I think the question you have to ask yourself is not of what is BBRY going to be and where will it be as an ongoing concern, I think you have to ask yourself ... how much value is Prem going to extract from BBRY's assets and how well is he going to be able to sell these and in today's world were things are moving so rapidly BBRY has a boatload of patents, which they have to capitalize on now and not in 2 years from now , this is the tech world, nothing moves faster or needs more cash for R&D than this sector.
    they need with the emphasis on "need"  to sell or partner now and Prem knows this.
    BBRY's security, it's patents , it's platform in a world where automotive will become ever more important, is going to be sought after.

    either way , by a sell-out of its assets or by partnering with a strong tech player the stock has 15 to 20$ written all over it.

    anyway that's how I see it
    good luck
    Jan 18, 2015. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]

    I believe Chen to be a trustworthy individual, but he is Managing the company, he does not own it


    he was hired because he did an excellent job at Sybase, turning the company around and the shareholders sold it for a big premium to SAP AG, Chen has a proven track-record as Mr. Fix it and that was what tempted Prem in taking him on, clean the company, get it on the rails and we will cash in, everything is moving according to plan.
    

    the Minister should have spoken to Prem , he and the other large stakeholders will decide whether they are looking to sell the company or not, not Chen with all due respect, I believe they are and they will .
    Prem is a fund Manager, a Money Manager, that's his business and that's what he is commited to, BBRY is an investment to him and his fellow fund Investors, no more - no less and as such there is a time to own it and a time to cash, we are moving to the cashing episode.


    BBRY one of the best buys on the Board for a 50% plus move, imho.
    Jan 18, 2015. 04:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Buy Royal Dutch Shell, Despite Lower Oil Prices [View article]
    @ Bruce,

    sorry I shud hv been more specific

    I am a Euro holder, not a US$ or sterling holder and I live in a country where there is no capital gain tax, our government believes you should retain all of the profit, but you cannot compensate losses by tax deductions either, you also have to take all of the loss , which is fine by most of us living in the low lands of Europe.

    but that's not the issue here
    we are debating risk/reward and with all due respect, you still have not answered , again explain to me

    why is
    Exxon in agreement with Rosneff to explore Oil and Gas from Siberia
    Shell in agreement with Gazprom to explore Oil and Gas from Siberia

    conditions in Siberia do not differ from the difficult circumstances in the Artic in Alaska, yet these companies are taking a huge Political Risk with Russia, why is that ?

    why did Shell ask to postpone for up to 5 years the Alaska project, why is Exxon not in Alaska as far as we know and yet they want to move ahead in Siberia ?

    i tell you why , they rather take the Political risk in Russia than face the US government on spillage

    the Oil spillage in the Delta in Nigeria was as big , if not worse than the Gulf, Shell was asked to clean it and that was it, the village people around the Delta took Shell after years of fighting to court in the Hague and finally after years got compensation in the form of tens of millions dollars, tens of millions, where as BP had to compensate billions, yes billions in US settlements and the fight is still ongoing.

    risk/reward, that's all that matters, no matter if Shell is the best or greatest, it's the risk you are taking versus the possible rewards.

    good luck
    Jan 17, 2015. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]
    @ fignecognac

    C'mon, think again, this is Big Inc at work, that's just for contract purposes , if this company is sold @ 15$ a share , Chen will be rewarded handsomely and will be compensated for any stock option scheme which would mature in the future and that he may miss out on.

    have you forgotten what disastrous U-Boat Captain Thorsten Heins walked away with while he was commanding BBRY and left port with the hatch open for a diving session , BBRY landed on the bed of the Ocean and Chen had to come to the rescue.

    Heins got his total option package paid out in full, whilst delivering zilch and evaporating share holders value in BBRY at a speed never witnessed before.

    anyway buy BRRY there really is 50% to be made imho, this stock did not go up 2 x in 6 months because BBRY is not dating, it came back down because BBRY is looking at the best possible partner and they are still going through candidates.

    also BBRY patents with more and more car manufacturers working at automated driving is super hot, just watch what Google and Yahoo or even Tesla may want from BBRY, when i say " sold " that just doesnot imply to one single buyer, it may mean 2 or 3 interested parties, but the stock has 15 to 17, possibly 20$ written all over it, it is going to happen and it is going to happen this year and Prem may not know how to run a tech company, but he sure as hell knows how to extract max value out of it, he tried to pull a fast one over all of us stock holders at 6 $, thank God that did not fly, but now he is getting his money back and more and we will all benefit.
    good luck
    Long BBRY
    Jan 17, 2015. 01:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buyout Might Not Be Necessary For A Turnaround [View article]

    i disagree , BBRY wants to sell , PW wants to capitalize and Chen has done all he can do for BBRY, he made it a sellable company and that is what the whole purpose of appointing Chen was.
    Prem tried to take BBRY private at the lows to re-sell, but it did not work, however the objective never changed, only the circumstances and the game-plan how to achieve this.

    now it will happen, buy BBRY at 10$ there is 50% to be made within the next 6 to 12 months , when this is all put to bed.
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Do Investors Never Learn From Buyout Rumors? [View article]

    some Funds are computer driven ( automated Trading , no human intervention ) when the share price goes thru a certain level and the computer gives a buy signal they buy, even if the Traders on the desk fear this is wrong, they know where the stop is to buy and they will defend it by trying to keep the stock below this level, but once it goes through all hell breaks loose and than you get excessive volume on excessive move.

    this without doubt has been a very bad day for automated Trading funds, they must have been clobbered.


    but they will not have gone Long
    these are not stop and reverse Funds
    a lot of this takes place on off-exchange platforms ( darkpools) and the volumes are reported later, that's why you sometimes wonder " where is all that volume coming from " those are adjustments afterwards.


    now I think as the volatility has shot up on this stock that even the short Traders will consider getting out, preferably on a dip, I believe the stock to be well supported at 10 'ish 
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Buy Royal Dutch Shell, Despite Lower Oil Prices [View article]

    No, is not so - if you live in a country that exempts double taxation, they reimburse

    your Broker or Banker will do that for you and you get the cash back.
    
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Do Investors Never Learn From Buyout Rumors? [View article]
    the stock was heading South, so good move this rumor, maybe it was Prem , he knows how to move the stock, anyway it did scare the shorts , they will now be reducing and altho the stock is gravitating lower again, it did kind of change the sentiment.

    there is always, maybe someone will buy it.

    other than that Chen should sell the company, the stock has taken all the goodwill out of the market it can get, now its down to reality of making the numbers come in and that's not going to work.

    the company will be sold 14/15 $ is on and that's 3 x times better than the last time Prem tried to pull a fast one on the other share holders.
    Prem wants to sell, Chen has to sell as that will still make him look like Mr Fix it,  so buy BBRY at 10$ and make 50%, better than Apple for the next 6 months as far as return on your money goes.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple falls towards $107 amid tech selloff, downgrade [View news story]
    because contributors are no analysts and on SA we have authors and contributors.
    this article is commenting on analysts.
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Buy Royal Dutch Shell, Despite Lower Oil Prices [View article]
    can you read ?
    come back to me when you figured out how much Shell has invested in Alaska so far and how much they have lifted and why do you think they have asked for a postponement for up to 5 years ?
    of course another major Oil company could have an Oil spill, Shell has had one for years in Nigeria and got away with it , so did Rosneff in Siberia, but this is the US and we have witnessed what that means BP 's share price halved, i am merely referring to risk/reward for Oil majors drilling in the States or in Africa.
    that Shell is a bigger and stronger company than Total is clear, but will it be the better one to own, not in 2014
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple falls towards $107 amid tech selloff, downgrade [View news story]

    I only listen to Icahn and have done so pre split from 450 $
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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