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  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    I think you are both going to be right, the good news hopefully the Author first and Bret later, anyway I will not wait for the stock to hit 450, I have been sidelined for a while and actually quite negative, but the earnings were fantastic ,better than I expected,so on this drop I am buying, if it goes lower I will buy more.

    this is a fantastic opportunity to enter the stock , whether Apple is a value or a growth stock does not really matter at 6 x earnings without the cash, for the best money machine in the world is going short not the play, last time the stock tanked it was massively overbought, now it is well bought but that's by just one guy Icahn and it looks to me he is not the guy to panic and sell out at 450

    time will tell
    Jan 29 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moore's Law, Not Apple, Is Driving The Mobile Market [View article]
    thank you for your very interesting paper, you are making some very valid points, nevertheless I think Apple Always has a choice, at present they are still one of the 2 most profitable companies on the Globe, their biggest handicap just like Exxon or Royal Dutch Shell, or Microsoft is their sheere market capitalization, it is so big that altho these companies merit to be growth stocks, they are not they are value stocks, most of them and especially Apple trading at cheap multiples for lengthy period of time.

    that is why it is so dangerous for Apple to have someone like Icahn so focused on the stock, although he is absolutely right for value versus stock price, the danger is that these Money Managers will try to make companies buy more and more of their own stock, but that just increases market capitalization and that hinders growth again, ultimately they than suggest to break-up the company and spin-off the different divisions, just to get the right value out of the stock.

    i believe Apple should just do what they are doing now, maximise profits and pay out hefty dividend, let the stock just be.
    when Apple comes with the next thing out of their think tank, they will have another edge for a few years, the compition is fast and smart, but not creative.

    sorry for any English mistakes, the spell control is not on
    Jan 29 06:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Dutch Shell Runs For Cash To Create Shareholder Value [View article]
    Mng Ray,

    I like what Shell is doing, the new CEO is starting to reduce non-performing assets, freeing up cash and I think Shell is in transition from going to a solid value stock with good dividend into a long term growth stock.
    I have been building a Long position is Shell for the LT

    today in the Dutch Papers

    " Royal Dutch sell it's 23% stake in their off-shore project Parque dos Conchas BC - 10
    RDS keeps it's " working-interest " of 50% in BC 10, as Royal Dutch is responsible for the exploitation of the project BC - 10 "

    " RDS commissioned an new liquid Gas refining/transportation ship, which can enter into problematic waters where distribution pipe-lines are complicated to build "

    ( Exxon is considering to order a similar build vessel )

    Looks like the new CEO did some book-cleaning, hence the profit warning, but that is looked here in the Netherlands by most analysts as a buying opportunity

    best regards
    Jan 29 04:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 50%, Time To Buy [View article]
    for your info

    Dutch papers quote " Royal Dutch Shell to sell it's 23% stake in their off-shore project
    Parques dos Conchas BC - 10

    Royal Dutch will keep a 'working interest ' of 50% in BC - 10 , as they are responsible for the exploitation of BC - 10 

    Jan 29 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can J.C. Penney Be Saved? [View article]
    thank you for your reply, but what you are proposing takes time and JCP is running out of time, I am no retail man, but your plan needs the support of the investors to save the company, but they are no longer dictating, I come out of the Hedge Fund Industry and the Funds are driving this stock into the ground, they are after JCP like a pack of wolves, what needs to be done is an immediate awe and shock action, the bleeding on the stock needs to be stopped and reversed.
    The Funds need to be pushed out of the stock, for that you need a Mr. Fix it, a guy with a reputation, almost bigger than life, who can swing the stock price around , not the company, there is no time for that.
    there is a lot of money to be made on the stock if JCP can find someone who can do this, if not it's too late , no matter what genius they can find with a 2 year master plan to change JCP in something new is too late, unless they can swing the stock around.George Soros is one of the cleverest Money Managers on the Globe, he knows the hedge fund industry inside out, he knows the priority is to turn the stock , not the company, is completely useless concentrating now on a new business model, he needs to find a guy who can fight-off the Funds.
    Jan 28 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can J.C. Penney Be Saved? [View article]
    what I would like to know is JCP at 6,40 a stock to go Long, is the risk/reward attractive, is there someone out there in JCP' management who can turn this company around, the short interest is huge, as big as BBRY's at it's most negative

    are we seeing here another BBRY move in the making ?
    BBRY took a write down as great as their entire market cap and the stock under new management rallied a 100%, without having made one single penny

    can JCP do the same, they got Soros, like BBRY has PW

    that's what I would like to know.
    I know every company needs a loss leader to attract customers, it's the spin offs that count, the problem is with JCP they do not just have one department as a loss leader, they are all loss leaders, can that be turned around ?
    One can come up with a 24 month business plan, but unless the street likes it, no one will have the patience to buy the stock and as long as the shorts have no counter weight they will keep knocking the share into the ground.

    JCP is so much like BBRY, can they find their Chen , they only need someone to change the sentiment, the shorts will then change the share price and then confidence will get restored.
    Jan 28 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Other Phone Is A BlackBerry [View article]
    No not at all, was more meant as a statement than as a comment, I know you turned bull on BBRY, not below 6, but well in time to enjoy the ride.
    Jan 28 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Other Phone Is A BlackBerry [View article]
    for the next 2 to 3 years , Apple is your value stock and BBRY is your growth stock, so the Author got it right for phones, now get it right for stocks.
    Jan 28 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 50%, Time To Buy [View article]

    I am having second thoughts on this stock, not so much because I have any additional fundamental bad news to digest, but that i simply believe why hold on to PBR if I can buy Apple today on a 8 to 10% dip

    so I am leaving PBR and moving into Apple, from one company badly in need of cash and being punished for it to a company totally in excess of cash and getting badly punished for it.

    something does not make sense

    good luck to all
    Jan 28 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: China Mobile Deal With Apple [View article]
    icahn will be all over Apple again, asking for yet more buy-backs, they will destroy the stock

    just pay out hefty dividends, don't bully the stock into a trillion market cap , the earnings are super, it's the bloody anticipation the whole time which kills the stock.

    the cheap far eastern producers are as yet to come to hit our shores, it will happen late 2014 and 2015 the playing field is changing, Apple should move up a gear in that think tank and come with something new, but they are too much focused on developing that futuristic Office.
    Jan 27 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras's Refining Up 8% From A Year Ago, Stock Down 36% [View article]
    technically you are absolutely correct, it looks horrible , a new low for the move, this will not encourage any of the shorts to cover and there must be more and more stale Longs throwing in the towel, the situation in Argentina does not help, that brings uncertainty to the region and the general out look for emerging markets is not helping either.

    I am taking this position for a LT recovery and by that I mean 2015, however I am well aware that stocks can trade for lengthy periods at time way below book value, the debt burden for Petrobrás is enormous, but they also have a lot of assets, here in Dutch papers it has been quoted that the offshore field in Bahia which Petrobrás jointly exploits with RD Shell and Total will come into full production that should al least bring earnings.
    I also feel that Petrobrás could sell off assets and that there will be an increase in domestic prices to reflect International market levels.

    the big worry is the Politicians they use Petrobrás and other state directed companies but public quoted as their personal piggy-bag.

    I am only in since a few weeks, so my average is OK, i see this as close to a possible leveling off level, but I agree technically it looks ghastly and that will prevent at least for the time being speculative money to enter the stock from the long side

    ( much appreciate yr mail )

    on a bounce I will consider granting some calls and buying puts, as I realize that short term there is little to change this negative sentiment on the stock

    if I was a Long from way above the market and already for months and months, I would abandon the stock, this is a killer for sentiment and it prevents you thinking clear, is better to put your money elsewhere.
    Jan 26 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Counting On Emerging Markets [View article]

    I do not longer care for what others think or write, the stock has turned, sentiment is turning and BBRY is turning into something new and exciting, anyone thinking this is still the " dead cat bounce " is going to end up dead in the water

    the stock is now slightly overbought on technical considerations and as such could retrace

    buy dips, this is a Long trade , the short play is over
    Jan 26 05:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 50%, Time To Buy [View article]
    This is an excellent comment
    Thank you
    Jan 25 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 50%, Time To Buy [View article]
    My average is 12,50 USD now on 30k shares
    50 USD where did that come from ? Wud be Nice though , but i think 20 USD is already very nice
    Jan 24 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 50%, Time To Buy [View article]
    the sentiment on the stock needs to turn, lower prints every day is not going to help, the stock needs to be able to at least hold.
    there have been too many stale longs, they are now throwing in the towel, the stock has as yet not bottomed

    Long PBR averaging down gently, my average now 12, 50 $i am a confident bull for the stock on a 2 years horizon, the bottom is yet to be reached.
    Jan 24 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment