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wiesje

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  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    @ Andreas - i have said many times that BBRY the company as we know it is over , so there I totally agree with you and Marcap

    now the share price , that is different and that's the only thing I am interested in and that share price is dependent upon the remains within BBRY, value wise and the cash.

    those are the 2 main issues at play, there is the cash versus the outstanding commitments

    and there is the rest value of the useable versus the unusable

    now what the Board of BBRY is doing they are writing down ( partially, because I am sure there is more to come ) losses thru the stock-price, it boils down to the same as the market cap falls as the share price falls, yet the cash ( a moving target ) remains.

    now I have also been involved in my business life at buying companies which were on paper heading for zero value and yet we paid a premium to get it, because these companies had cash and had strategic value, the outstanding commitments were re-negotiated at 35 cents in the $, they either could settle for some compensation and for renewed long term contracts with the new owners ( us ) or they could chase their claims against an empty shell, without fail they all settled for 35 cts in the $

    and this is what is going to happen on BBRY, it will get ugly, it will get nasty, but in the end there will be a deal. ( imo )

    I am long BBRY, fully hedged, i Look to release those hedges Monday scale-down so I become outright Long the shares and the write down on the share price price will be cushioned by the profit on the Put options i liquidate

    I Always ask myself if I had no stock today and we are at 8 $ , would I sell , abstain or buy the stock and although i realize the risk is high to me at 8 $ it's 65/35 % i come out ahead of the game, those are good odds to me and I will take the risk and accept my loss if I am wrong.

    in a strange way this collapse Friday is the come clean for the stock, this is the last of the last, they ( BOD) are giving up, mentally they are done, they want this to be all over and done with and that's when the buyers start coming in, trust me, there are buyers and they will bid , this is not over.

    it will all be over very soon.
    Sep 21, 2013. 01:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    good on you Michael
    Sep 21, 2013. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    I have written on my instablog, i cannot link , i don't know how to do that , anyway I am very long BBRY, all hedged and on Monday i will start releasing those hedges and turning those shares in outright Longs.

    good luck and keep cool, the company is lost, but the fight for the stock price is not over yet.
    Sep 21, 2013. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    I am not saying there is foul-play, but the problem is that the Shorts are the Hedge Funds and they will accommodate anyone looking to buy BBRY on the cheap, I am puzzled that they have never covered , that indicates to me part of that short position must be 'ring-fenced', which basically means the hedge Funds ( shorts) may have provided a put-option to the Longs and the Longs in return have provided a call option to the Shorts.

    the good news on, that one is that we may see no massive Long liquidation by the Investment/Pension Funds, that could mean this sell-off may be very painful, very vicious, but short-lived.

    Now if one wants to think " Machiavelli " - assuming there are No buyers or at least none being approved by that Canadian Rule and PW and his buy-out party are the only ones interested, is than the objective to get the stock down and clean the company at the expense of the share holders and if some of these present share holders are going to be involved in the "newco" owning BBRY, would this not be the perfect plot ?

    now, if the hedge Funds had been on the Long side they would be up in arms revolting against the present act of play by the BOD, but they are institutions and we are private small holders, what can we do.

    but again, this is just if you are a Dan Brown follower ... my name is Wiesje and I know nothing.
    Sep 21, 2013. 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    don't go waste your profits on Nokia on this one, but it may be worth buying some out of the money calls as a punt.
    cheers !
    Sep 21, 2013. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    yes, I don't want to bloat, but remember I may trade bigger numbers than you, but I hedge.

    so although the net number invested is probably larger, the net exposure is contained.

    I am Always willing to sacrifice part of the potential profits by buying put protection, it take health Insurance, so why should i not take an Insurance on money I invest in other peoples business ?

    listen every Trader costs an Airplane, so it is important you learn the Trade somewhere else before you go out on your own.
    I did and i am still calling it often wrong.

    we Always here people say, I was right in the end, yeah great, but where you still in the stock ?

    anyway I wrote a small blog on BBRY , you want to have a laugh on my broken English , have a look and count your blessing if you are not in.
    but it may be worth a punt for the brave.
    Sep 21, 2013. 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    Yes Andreas you were right all along on this chap, I hoped with him at the controls he would derail prior to hitting that brick-wall it was not to be.

    some Ugly mess , anyway as stupid as this may sound it's not over yet, no doubt the company is finished, but the stock is not, the real " asset-stripers" will move in, if no buyer shows and if 8 $ is sick and 5$ is as good as dead, 10 $ now feels like salvation....

    my money as a pure punt, is on "salvation" .
    so I am willing to let my hedges go and play it from an outright Long, I may well repent, but thank the Lord (MSFT) gave us that Nokia gift, so I can risk it.
    Sep 21, 2013. 05:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Worth $15 Dead Or Alive [View article]
    you can't tell what Fairfax did, professionals can hedge in OTC's and dark-pools and the set-off's are eventually reported, but you have no clue where PW is at, he may still own the stock in name, but he may well have hedged out in part or full

    is a real mess, none of us knows - we have no clue how committed or not PW still is to BBRY, is exactly why he left the Board, he has no further obligation to report what he is doing or likely to do, we all think he was leaving to organize a buy-out, maybe he tried and failed and now he hedged, I don't know.
    Sep 21, 2013. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Worth $15 Dead Or Alive [View article]
    well in 2 weeks a lot changed for BBRY

    there only hope is for a buyer, will he be acceptable is another issue

    at present the BOD of BBRY is chaotic, they have no control over the outcome, news is catching-up to them, so they had to come with a profit warning, one week prior to earnings release

    they will either shut down and carve-up the company in a fire sale, or they will let a private buy-out party have it on the cheap or they will accept of foreign buyer

    at the moment they are taking all " the hits " through the share price, so the stock-holders are hurting, they are still desperately trying to hold on to that surplus cash, as that is the real temptation to any possible buyer, as that can finance a large chunk of the purchase cost as well as the much needed re-organization and re-structuring that any buyer has to do.

    we all know that surplus cash is just a balance-sheet item and a moving target, nevertheless as Long as the stock-price takes the bleeding for their write-downs so to say, they are accommodating the new owner, they are making them-selves as attractive as possible and as clean as possible, hence they are laying-off work-force.

    is this a set-up to let eventually PW and his party have the company on the cheap ?, I don't think so, I think it is now for BBRY just a question of how can we survive, without ending up in liquidation.

    it's a real nightmare, however the "good-news" if there is any, is that now the company is hitting rock-bottom and that will make buyers come forward, everybody is now going to have a look what can be taken-off this cadaver, it's the vultures coming to the forefront, is normal.

    on Monday it will may get very hectic on the stock, the shorts are in control and will dictate the buying-pace so to say, there will be Longs looking to get out.

    fear is moving into the stock, never a good sign, the BOD of BBRY cannot be trusted for any information, they are so desperate and tired of this whole thing, they can't take it anymore and this is the danger , they may now well accept anything to get this off their hands.

    outlook is grim for share holders, there is no range, the price will be meager, hopefully still a double digit number, but no guarantees.

    all will be over in the coming weeks, this circus can't last for too Long.
    Sep 21, 2013. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    all his ( Mercap ) comments are being pulled, ridiculous !
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    Mr. Blair, pull the paper - this is ridiculous, people commenting on your bad behavior and bad calls are getting their comments pulled, while you just plot along in excuses, shame on you ! and shame on SA

    you guys pull my comment, this is the last one I posted !
    I am already saying goodbye, i enjoyed it and it is the best site in the world, but this is ridiculous
    take care and good luck to all.
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    no, he (PW) knew what was coming, you think he is not talking to them ?

    anyway, this is now for real, now it starts - bcse BBRY is a wounded animal and now the Buyers are coming.

    I still believe we will see 12,50 $ in one form or the other, BBRY the company is a goner.
    i am adding, i can as I am hedged.

    now it starts, mind my words.

    possible low 7 $, take-out for mer 12,50 it is a punt, no more than that, don't even start thinking longterm . ( imo)
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    no Mr Blair, no excuses, the ones to blame for all this is the BOD of BBRY, this is not happening just today, this week, this month.

    BBRY has been in steady decline for years, miss-management and it continued, the BOD of BBRY have been evasive all along.
    most Longs , me included took a punt on the company getting sold, it may still happen or not, but there was no doubt the Management sold this company short big time and it started years ago, a big let down.
    the last 10 weeks or so are very questionable as to what exactly with PW leaving the BOD of BBRY, did he leave to hedge his longs ? he knew what was coming, they needed to put a catalyst in the stock to make it reverse from the 8,50 level and so it did it rallied to 12,50 $ was that his ticket out ?
    i am sure we will know in a few weeks as BBRY will now look for its options.
    I am Long 75.000 shares all hedged, I will buy BBRY now against the hedges from here scale down and as such kind of double-up,whilst remaining for 50% hedged.
    i still feel the take-out price will be 12,50 $ , it will come ( imo) - this was the needed interruption, now it's time to add.
    now the buyers will emerge, the company is toast, they will accept any offer coming in, they can't take it any more.
    you have Managed a large public company, you know what they are going through, they are devastated, they want this to be over.
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:11 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    well, well... as lots were thinking PW did the honorable thing of leaving the BOD of his beloved BBRY not to be in a conflicting situation and to organize a buy-out on the stock
    on that news the stock enthusiastically was able to reverse from 8,50 to 12,50 ...
    well it's now back @ 8,50
    question : did he double or did he hedge ?
    Sep 20, 2013. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    well Mr. Blair look how well this blue chip BOD handled this one, if the news had not started to leak from all corners, the BOD would have kept quiet, but it got out of control, so they come with this horrific profit warning ONE week prior to earnings release -

    the company is dead and it may come back a live, but only through a major hair-cut to be taken by share holders.

    we better all pray that there is a buyer out there

    anyway in your previous paper you stated that net asset value for BBRY was between 25 and 30 $, so your devoted followers will pin their hope on that one.
    I would now be very, very happy with 12,50 $ as I stated all along and that's all we may get, if common sense prevails, if not we are looking at less than 8
    Sep 20, 2013. 04:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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