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wiesje

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  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    of course nobody believes that valuation, you think that Prem Watsa, knowing what was coming and " in charge " until last week and being a money Manager and apparently as far as the Canadians go the WB of the North, would not take that 3 bio in cash that BBRY holds and do an enormous stock buy-back when the stock tanked thru 9 $ if he thought the sum of all parts would generate 30$....

    so the conclusion is that valuation by the author is to be neglected or worst BBRY does not have that 3 bio cash in hand.

    anyway as far as you being short, i am Long... i think I win for the coming 6 to 12 weeks, after that if nothing happens, you win.
    i admit my upside from here is 3 $, failing a buyers showing the downside is 6

    the rest of yr comment, altho somewhat aggressive, I agree, apart yr last paragraph, i do feel BBRY makes fantastic phones, it's just not known or for the general public, but so are Lamborghini's
    Aug 16 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    what price would you see possible ? i mean if it's correct he is now in @ 17 $ and unhappy, i would have to take it that at best we are looking at today's value of 11$, at what 20% premium ? so 13,50 $ ?

    again, i take this from Bloomberg, so i am not sure this is accurate, but if you basically are now already as a Board giving a huge incentive to the CEO for selling the company, must we than assume that partnering is already a past station ?
    I hope at least the BOD had the brains to link that incentive to performance, the higher the sales price the more he gets , but with BBRY you never know ?
    we are now down to plain selling , is that the bottom-line ?

    I mean i am in the stock so i am somewhat bias, but if you take a bit of a helicopter-view and you look at what is happening, you would say, i am not getting involved , this could turn out to be a can of worms ...

    what is wisdom in this case ?
    Aug 16 06:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    tks, SA is a fantastic site, much better than what we have over here and I enjoy the articles and many very good comments and discussions definitely helps one in investing and also in reconsidering when one is in doubt.
    Aug 16 05:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    according to Bloomberg " Thorsten Heins is fully hedged, against all calamities " , well it's good to know the Captain is safe and he has got his life-boat, now let' see if there are any swimming-vests left for us poor souls.

    i mean , we are all in shares bcse we like what we see and we invest in what we believe and we hold on even when things are tough, believing that " the crew " deserves another shot at the business and trusting they will get it right, but if I than now hear on Bloomberg Europe that the Board on it's last meeting decided to look at TH exit clause and rubber-stamp his safety-net, that does make me puke.
    they should be out there discussing the rescue of the Enterprise.

    altho I am up on the stock now, being Long at 9 $ after 2 silly attempts before where i got clobbered, i feel like just selling out and giving up on this one, even though i still believe 15$ is on.

    i hope Bloomberg got it wrong, but I fear they got it spot on.
    what are their bloody priorities at BBRY ?
    Aug 16 05:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    ..plse read ...it is now essential to have a deal done... apology , typo missed the 'w'
    Aug 16 01:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    @ Chris Lau: " the company will be bought out in 6 to 12 months " -

    if it takes that Long, the stock will be back at the lows of 6 to 7 $, if you really believe that BBRY is now viewed by it's suppliers, it's clients, the Banks who are rating the company's credit facilities ( whether they use them or not ) as an on going business, you have some surprise coming.

    this company after all the news leaked is coming to a grinding halt, the company will stop functioning, moral of it's workforce is going to zero and so are sales. people will only be talking on the work-floor what is to happen to the business, nobody is any longer fully committed to make BBRY work.
    Telefonica sitting on loads of smart-phones consigned to them thanks to the financing of the Canadian Government, will not buy those phones, they do not even know who will end up owning the company, they may well have a conflict with the new owners to be.

    the BOD of BBRY has chosen to protect the share price over the company, by releasing this news the actually killed the company, but they saved the stock-price, it was a well thought through decision driven i fear more by the Money Manager on the Board than by the Technical People running the company, there was a clear decision to save someone's investment rather than the future of the business.

    it is no essential to have a deal done, preferably in 6 to 12 weeks, not 6 to 12 months.

    the BOD is under enormous pressure for time, that makes them weak negotiators, this thing is a complete disaster.
    they have to seize the momentum that the stock is looking North to sell, the moment the present Euphoria on the stock-price turns, this could get very ugly.
    Aug 16 01:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is Worth More Than People Think [View article]
    @ Author: with PW on the Board, until Monday en him being a money manager, a fund Manager of great status, do you really believe that if the sum of all parts of BBRY is worth 30$ and with BBRY claiming they have 3 bio cash in hand, that he would not have ordered them to do a large share buy back when the stock went below 9 $, especially as the BOD was already fully aware what was about to happen and what news they were about to leak to the market .
    No, BBRY at best is worth 17$ the price that PW has informed he is long at and that is rumored to be the price he is willing to let go.
    if PW is part of any private buy-out, he will bid at virtually no premium to today's price, i believe him to organize a buy_out, but i doubt he will be part of it, he is going to sell.

    time will tell and I am long BBRY and wud be very pleased to see 15 $ as a take-out price, anything above that is a bonanza to me.
    Aug 15 07:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Enterprise Strength Is Key To Unlocking Value If Sold [View article]
    @ author: thanks , interesting paper - as share holders we should however object ( i know we have no voice ) to the company selling off assets, even if that results on paper in a higher revenue.
    we should endeavor that BBRY is sold lock, stock and barrel, because if they are slowly starting off selling item by item, they will not hand out these revenues to share holders, but they will burn that income away in overheads, restructuring and paying off debt and by the time all the so called crown Jewels are gone, we share holders are left with an empty company worth zilch and yet still full of obligations and bad receivables, so that should not be on.

    i am for either a private buy-out or a straight sell in full and final @ 15$, i would be happy under present circumstances.

    my biggest fear is that this will all take months and in the meantime the company is at a standstill and in the end we all end up distressed sellers and we knock the stock back way below 10$ without even a buyer insight.

    BBRY needs a " white knight " and it needs it fast. PW & Friends may well be the only ones interested in taking the company, but than you are looking at virtually no premium over present stock price.
    Aug 15 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver ETF Inflows Are Starting To Get Interesting, In A Very Bullish Way [View article]
    "real players open a commodity account " , well i may be somewhat older than you and have been in this biz my entire life, but the biggest sucker for a play was what happened to the Banks and their clients when they got caught when the Hunt Bros ramped up in the late 70's together with the Arabs the Silver price to the biggest squeeze ever, they sat on 50% of all world supplies and guess how that ended ? in tears..., but not before many went belly-up , being squeezed by Hunt.

    and it happened again on the NY coffee exchange, another commodity exchange when the Man Group together with the Colombians and Brazilian squeezed the coffee market to it's highest levels ever, again Banks and their clients lost a fortune and guess how that one ended again in tears.. Man Coffee went belly -up and was bought out by Jacobs Suchard, one of the world largest coffee and cocoa Industries

    then there was the Cocoa squeeze led by the Ivory Coast and Philip Bros again on the NY commodity exchange...guess how that ended...Philip Bros lost a fortune and closed their commodity divisions.

    then later on Sucres et Denre├ęs the largest Sugar trader world wide, tried to squeeze the Sugar market in London, Paris and NY at the same time, led by Serge Varsano, that was the end of that one...

    shall i continue, so as far as yr comment "real players " trade on the commodity exchanges, yes sure, that's were the real big Specs are having a go at it.

    and on all plays Banks and their clients lost a fortune
    Aug 15 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 Gold Demand Drops 12% As Increased Investment Demand Fails To Keep Pace With ETF Outflows [View article]
    that goes for all "futures" or "terminal " markets or ETF's, the actually taking of delivery or supply to is a mere 15% of all Trades -
    don't forget that although producers and end-users use the " paper " or "terminal" markets to hedge their stocks or demand, that's the 15%, the rest is all Hedge Funds, Investment Funds, Traders, Large Specs and Option-makers, that's your other 85%, so you can work out the ratio of "paper " traded volume over actual "physical" traded volume, now a lot of people may not like that, but that's how it works.

    is the same on shares on the exchange, we are all looking at the print on the tape and in the meantime institutional investors trade amongst them-selves in dark-pools or OTC's off-exchange, but hey that's how it works.
    in the end all is reported and revealed, so it's not illegal, it's the system.

    just for the record, i am Dutch, living in the low-lands of Europe and we also would at yr convenience want our Gold back ( lol) it's hedged by JPM and GS with the compliments of the FED.

    keep well and good luck with yr investments
    Aug 15 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 Gold Demand Drops 12% As Increased Investment Demand Fails To Keep Pace With ETF Outflows [View article]
    by out-perform , i mean the "paper " will go up more than the "physical" , i am not saying that the "paper" will trade at a premium to the "physical"

    simply, bcse the "paper" market got all the Trade and large Specs in there, the physical is for Bankers and States and collectors and investors in coins and bars.

    there is no doubt the FED have been giving the Europeans a cold shoulder on their reserves "parked" in the States... where is it..?
    ( i mean it's there - but why can't we repatriate it ? - bcse it's being hedged by the shorts on the market )

    all of this added to an over-reaction of "paper-selling" and that is now being corrected, at least that's how i see it.
    and op top of that there are tons of option-makers short at all kind of strike -prices, all that stuff has to be reversed and that is what makes me belief that the "paper" will out-perform the "physical"

    hey, but i have been wrong plenty before , but not the last 18 months on Gold and Silver, i have been short all the way and last month I turned Long on both.
    (when our Government asked for our Gold and they were told, you can have 30% now, the balance come back in 2017.., that's was the tipping point for me)
    Aug 15 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 Gold Demand Drops 12% As Increased Investment Demand Fails To Keep Pace With ETF Outflows [View article]
    the " paper " gold market ( trackers and ETF's ) are about to out-perform the "physical " price as they have a lot of catching-up to do and it's about to happen on Gold and even more on Silver, they were both knocked down in an over-reaction on heavy hedge Fund liquidation.
    the "paper" market on Gold and Silver is clean, they are now turning ( imho) for a major correction.

    as far as the largest short in the market that's the FED who is not able to supply the European's their Gold reserves stocked in the States, bcse that Gold has been "lend" to give ammunition to the shorts, that position is now in the process of slowly being reversed.

    Long Gold and Silver, but "paper " no physical coins or bars.
    Aug 15 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    Question : anybody to inform me where i can find some articles on SueZ ?

    GDF SueZ just acquired BBW ( British, Balfour Beatty Workplace ) I read this as a very clever strategic purchase which will strengthen SueZ's Energy Services Division ( Cofely) in the British market.

    I understand that SueZ, altho working at reducing it's overall debt is non-the-less increasing where it can build a strategic edge and as such is looking to increase their Energy Services Division by up to 40% and this recent acquisition is part of that plan.

    technically, the stock is looking very good and is consolidating around the 16,50/17,00 euro level, which having now broken out of a 5 year downtrend is looking more and more like a spring-board from where the stock could impressively increase in value.

    technically the stock gives strong indications it has turned.

    appreciate any fundamental info on sites such as SA
    Aug 15 04:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver ETF Inflows Are Starting To Get Interesting, In A Very Bullish Way [View article]
    maybe i am missing something, but I don't get this correlation "inflow increases, so price increases " should be the opposite, as "inflow "or stock increases, the price goes down not up.

    high stocks/availability gives low prices and low stock/availability give higher prices

    so the action of the price was normal, " the impressive rise in holdings, despite lower prices " is not abnormal, is normal.. too many Longs.

    i think you have to differentiate between the people buying coins and bars, whom are long term investors and holding the physical and the Traders and Large Specs whom are price traders, i fall into that last category, i only trade the Paper

    and yes, i have recently gone Long on Gold and Silver for technical reasons, looking for a 30% correction from the recent lows over the coming months.
    Aug 15 02:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Won't Sell BlackBerry As Long As It Generates Cash [View article]
    I hear what you are saying, but 2 remarks :

    a) if the company is on sale , and the great majority of the BOD and it's share holders approve a deal, you may not like it, but you are out. ( the last remaining 5 to 10 % for all practical purposes are not stopping a deal )

    b) that surplus cash on BBRY's books is a moving target, it's an accounting issue more than free cash available.
    i am not saying they don't have it, i am merely saying it's not freely available, if all consignments especially the big Telefonica deal being front-financed by the Canadian Government and the outstanding payments to BBRY's suppliers are deducted that big cash pile gets reduced.
    think about it, why if BBRY is so convinced their stock is way undervalued and having such an enormous cash at hand did they not do a share buy-back, that would also make it even possible to do their own delisting from the exchange, they would not require a buy-out plan.

    it is bcse BBRY has lost all confidence in their own business, they need that cash to stay on the balance sheet and the Canadian Government is helping them with that, otherwise all biz partners that BBRY has to deal with be that suppliers or potential clients will stop trading with them.

    that cash is the only point of confidence to keep them afloat, so they will use ever accounting trick in the book to keep that on their balance sheet, even if it is not freely available.

    I am Long the stock, bcse I feel a buy-out or buyer will emerge, but I am a complete non-believer in BBRY going forward as is, the company is coming to a complete standstill, nobody wants to trade with them, mark my words sales will plummet

    they need a " white-knight " pronto !

    my advise , if you stay Long ( me too) take some put protection while the stock is still looking North, pay the Insurance premium and pray that's your worst move ever and you will never have to use it.

    good luck to all of us hanging in there, we need it.
    Aug 15 01:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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