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  • The Perception Problem Facing BlackBerry [View article]
    best BBRY paper ever -

    the stock should be delisted, off exchange and then it will be free from all the mad-money-men shorting it and the analysts continuing to write it off.

    BBRY lots the battle on the stock market, but the company has great possibilities , it needs time, the stock market will not give BBRY time as they don't deserve it in all honesty, they screwed-up big time, so the solution it to take it private and build BBRY into a good profitable niche business and then it will succeed and can Always contemplate in 5 years down the road to apply again for a listing, if they so wish.

    i hope there is someone out there who has the guts to take the company private.
    it will go at a discount, but well above today's value.

    if that is not to happen, i fear the stock will continue to gravitate lower and yes, they will burn through their cash, the pressure to perform will be so huge that Management may well be capable of going crazy and hide, cheat and deceive to accommodate the numbers to what the market wants. Nuts, this is how a good business gets destroyed, move away from the exchange or sell yourself to a strategic player.

    Jul 8 03:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And S&P 500 Have Proven To Be A Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold Post 2008 [View article]
    @ author: just out of interest, where do you see the Silver/Gold spread heading over the next 6 to 12 months ?
    Jul 7 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    is OK, no problem - i am Dutch, we are indebted to the Canadians forever, they gave much more to us then we can ever repay -

    i hope BBRY get their act together.
    Jul 7 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    and IF anybody should be held accountable for miss-information it is Royal Bank of Canada when they @ 2,55 euro came with a sell-recommendation for Nokia, as they had strong indications that Nokia was about to come with a profit warning, well I suppose they tried to do BBRY a favor by getting the short attention out of BBRY into Nokia and you know what ever since that rumor Nokia is up 30% and BBRY is down 30% , so go bug them and leave me alone.
    i am done with this article on BBRY

    good luck to all Long or Short and i mean that sincerely.
    Jul 7 05:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And S&P 500 Have Proven To Be A Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold Post 2008 [View article]
    @ author: good summary paper, tks - i also have been short Gold and trading it from the short side ever it broke it's uptrend 18 months ago at 1850 $ and it's been a phenomenal short trade, but recently at 1200$ i covered, first by buying Silver against it as an arbitrage at 19$ as Silver had reached it's down side objective to me.
    now I feel Gold has also reached it's down side objective at 1200$, so i squared-up, however i can see that Gold failing to hold the 1200 level could retrace further to a 1000$, but something has changed a) a lot of the Longs have puked and b) even some Gold die hards are now turning bearish.... stocks Always accelerate at the end of a trend and Gold and Silver have definetely moved into overdrive the last month, for no other reason than that i feel it's done enough for the time being, the precious metals could get range bound between 1200 and 1350 and 18 and 23 and maybe later on in the year can there be a change of direction, either futher down of up.

    tks for yr paper and all the previous ones, you called it spot on.
    Jul 7 02:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    sorry, my apology " concur " instead if conquer, this is the problem with the English language sounds the same, but is written differentially and has different meaning, maybe this is also Heins problem.. selling, shipping, consignment it's all the same to him, but the market took it other wise.
    Jul 7 01:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    firstly try to think logical a court of law, defending my comments..? what are you talking about, if you feel that strongly about what i am commenting to be incorrect, report it to SA and if they agree with you they can expel me from commenting.

    secondly if people react or ask me a question to my comments i have the decency to respond, if that response does not conquer with your view i am very sorry , but so be it.

    i do not comment or react to the person in person or bring his or hers view in discredit, i respect someone to think differently, i just may not agree.

    lastly, i differentiate between what a company produces and BBRY does produce some very smart looking phones and stock behavior, you may not like it, but a stock which trades at merely 6% of it's high value of 5 years ago and which is able to drop 30% in one day at still an extremely low level, i cannot be positive about.

    you and some others apparently can and that's your prerogative, it's your money and your investment, i wish you the best of luck with your holding -
    i hope for you there is a positive outcome next week.
    Jul 7 12:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    Sorry, i believe that to be incorrect, when Telefonica agreed a large shipment with BBRY , BBRY arranged through a special export license from the canadian government and the royal bank of Canada the financing for this consignment , BBRY kept its cash on the balance sheet and Telefonica has the consigned phones to sell.
    RBC is also a share holder of BBRY stock.

    The problem is that everything surrounding BBRY financially or performance wise is kept as vague as possible, without being fraudulent or shortcoming on required shareholding information, BBRY may well have been obliged to inform on the currency problem with Venezuela, yet they choose not to be open as they considered this as ongoing and an item for below the line , so not a performing issue for the numbers.

    Because BBRY is vague in their reporting and in their sales numbers, which can also be shipped numbers or intransitive numbers or consigned numbers, and they have informed the market that in future they will just report shipped numbers and no more specifications as to which is for what phone.

    And that's why they got punished and the stock collapsed 30 pct, not because they reported a small loss, they got punished because nobody knows anymore what to believe.
    Jul 6 08:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    @ usajordi : i am very relaxed, i am out on BBRY, i have been long as well as short the stock, i am merely expressing my view, it's different than most on this forum, so i'll take some stick, but i am not bringing down BBRY, nor am i selling down BBRY, that's what the Longs are doing.
    I am no BBRY basher, but I agree with you I will stop writing on BBRY.
    let's just reconvene in 6 months.

    good luck to all involved.
    Jul 6 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    @ gladtiding: there is no easy solution, but if it boils down to see yr investment erode to merely a residual value or some entrepreneur comes with the suggestion to take the stock private, take it away from the funds and analysts, take it away from the pressure to report every quarter and be judged and punished for every minor off and see yr value plummet, i think institutional investors will go along and will participate.
    i hate to use this sentence but beggars can't be choosers -

    BBRY is a very dangerous stock to hold, it's now for the specs and punters, not for long term investors, by taking it off exchange one would get the long term investor in to hold especially if the Bond will translate into stock and you get it out of the negativism of the exchange.

    don't forget there may be much worse news to come, i don't know what the minimum required value is for market cap in the US and Canada to remain on the prime exchange, but if BBRY's market cap at the end of the year it where it was mid 2012, certain investment funds are no longer allowed to hold their investment and will have to reduce, who will take that selling ?

    on what exchanges is BBRY listed , besides the Nas and Toronto ?... are they allowed to remain on these exchanges, if they go below a certain threshold at a certain date and are forced off an exchange, that brings selling that nobody expected.
    i recently had that with a stock which was listed on the FTSE 100, they got demoted to the FTSE 250 and at the same time where expelled from 2 other exchanges and that brought about totally unforeseen selling;, Black Rock had a 10% holding in that company and went down to 2% in 3 months, the stock was already trading at a low, but it halved again in price.

    i am not saying that this will happen to BBRY, but you can rest assured that there is tension in the Board room, i guarantee you, this stock needs to go up to keep everybody on Board.

    I don't see how as a long term investor you can keep the faith , the stock is trading at 6% of it's highs from 5 years ago and is heading South again.

    anyway good luck to all, maybe i am completely wrong, but the stock price tells me unfortunately i am not.
    Jul 6 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    @ rapag, i am not taking it personally and i hope you are not either - we just differ in opinion and that's fine -

    i mentioned specifically share price behavior, because that's what it is.

    BBRY share price behavior is that of a company heading towards a bankruptcy scenario.

    think of it, hedge funds are not stupid, yet they never covered their shorts on BBRY, they reduced on Nokia ( Nokia and BBRY where amongst the most shorted stocks on the exchange for 2012/2013 ... why ? because Nokia has a strategic partner in MSFT, which gives Nokia a 1 bio credit cash injection every 4 to 5 months, yet Nokia has also got surplus cash on it's balance sheet, that has to do with the funding of their business which is provided by credit lines from the Banks, the Banks in Europe are far more cautious ( also bcse they are still far weaker than the North American Banks ) as such MSFT is Nokia's white knight.

    BBRY has no MSFT for a white knight or strategic partner, no they have a money-manager as their major stock holder , a fund Manager for crying out loud.
    BBRY surplus cash is balance sheet cash, it's generated from positive cash flow or holdings, but that does not mean that all these nice phones that are shipped in transit, to be sold stocks whatever are financed by BBRY, they are financed with credit lines from Banks, the positive cash is just what it is an asset on the balance sheet and that is needed at times or not.
    Credit lines is working capital, it is a loan against a security, be that building, stocks, factories whatever.

    it is only when good receivables become bad receivables, that's when it turns into debt , possibly bad debt.

    if for instance on the " consigned " phones from BBRY, there would be a loss to take to sell them, than that could become a bad receivable to the Bank, the security or revenue out of that security does not cover the loan.

    BBRY knows that the market is going thru their numbers with a fine comb and as such they know that keeping a chunk of their value in cash is perceived by the market as a safety net, just as most of you point out over and over again, but it's an accounting issue, if BBRY had to pay back all it's secured loans, they may end up with no cash.
    cash is a moving target on a balance sheet.

    just watch where all that cash is by year end, if the stock does not recover.
    Banks are just one notch above loan-sharks when the credit rating goes down, and credit ratings go down because of the analysts and ultimately the stock price and therefore i keep on saying, please take BBRY off the exchange.
    If there was an entrepreneur who would be willing to take BBRY private issue Bonds on BBRY to raise cash for this operation and make those bonds in one year into convertible shares, i would participate, because i do believe BBRY can be a very profitable, private niche player.
    however if it stays on the exchange the stock will just fade away.
    BBRY lost the battle against the analysts and the Funds and it did not happen the last week, it started 4 years ago, this is ongoing.

    sorry to be so longwinded
    Jul 6 10:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    firstly i am comparing share price behavior to companies which all eventually went under, i have stated clearly that i believe BBRY as a company has a chance to survive, but in my opinion it has to go off exchange, as long as BBRY is a quoted stock the Funds will not fail to keep on shorting this stock and the analysts will continue to write it down.
    many are talking about Long term viability, for BBRY to have a chance to perform and be rewarded on a yearly or multiple year performance rather than on a quarterly basis, that being the case the company should become private.

    a listed, public company has to go by certain set of rules and as such that company will be judged every quarter or half year on their reported numbers, they are also obliged to give trading updates and performance updates and they are required to advise the public if their earnings are way off estimates or expectations, that's called a profit warning, those are given if and when appropriate prior to earnings release and not during the earning release.
    so before you start insinuating that i am liable for something i don't claim, but just give my opinion, i think BBRY should be very careful not to get asked some very nasty questions from certain shareholders at their coming event.

    BBRY has a lot to answer for, the quarter prior to this one, the CEO gave a boost of confidence to the market based on his findings for the launch of the new Phone, he was very confident that sales , which then became shipped numbers, which then became in-transit numbers would be well above expectations even towards 10 mio.

    well a stock does not tank on earnings day by almost 30% just because there was a slight discrepancy in the expectations, this stocked tanked because nobody knows anymore what to believe.

    as far as credit lines go, there is not one public company that i can come to think of that does not have credit lines with banks, whether they use them for 10 or 100% is immaterial for this purpose.
    positive cash flow or cash balances or cash holdings is good given, but that does not mean that they are using credit lines for stock ( production ) holdings, consignments and so on...
    the reason a lot of public companies hold surplus cash balance is to be able to pay for the dividend or to finance production or stock designed for countries which have a greater country risk and as such the Banks are hesitant to finance to those nations, the normal running of the business is financed by credit lines from Banks.

    I understand you are frustrated by my comment being Long BBRY, but sorry , this is a public site and anyone is entitled to his or her view as long as one does not insult someone for thinking differently.

    Jul 6 07:30 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    you are mistaken positive cash flow or holdings for credit lines, every company has credit lines, even the Exxon's and Unilever's and Apple's of this world -

    all the extreme negativisms surrounding the stock will make BBRY's ratings go down, the Banks will pull the lines or make them ever so more expensive, they will ask for guarantees, this is how companies go under.
    BBRY will burn through it's cash, RD, overheads, advertising and so on...

    BBRY has to go off exchange, that's there only way to survive or the company has to be bought by a 3rd party, preferable a strategic partner.

    the company can as yet survive, the stock on the exchange has lost the battle.
    Jul 6 04:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    BBRY has no floor, the stock obviously trading at 9 $ has limited downside, but a stock which came from over 140 $ 5 years ago and now trading at 6,5 % of it's value, is reduced to the equivalent of a penny-stock, it's no longer a stock for investors, it's a stock for speculators and for the large stock owners, whom are all stuck with their investment.

    BBRY's share price behavior is no different than Drexel Burham, or Enron or MF Global, the company may survive if it's taken off exchange, but who dares ?
    BBRY will burn it's cash and the Banks will pull the lines, the present large stock holders will have to give guarantees for the Banks not to abandon the stock.

    when a stock after having been savaged comes back yet again close to it's all time low, it's no longer a buying opportunity, it's a warning sign, all alarm bells should be ringing for the Longs.

    It's beyond me how anyone can continue to look for Bullish arguments on this stock, the solution for BBRY is to take it private, get it away from the Hedge Funds and analysts, get it away from quarterly reporting and then try to build it into a nice profitable niche player, but who dares ?

    a bottom ?.... every bottom has a hole in it... , for BBRY the hole is bigger than the bottom.
    Jul 6 03:38 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Double Down On BlackBerry? [View article]
    sorry, i disagree

    very few people doubled up at 7, most were sellers otherwise the stock would not have gotten there

    people who did buy at 7, very few got out at 18$, otherwise the stock would not been trading at 9 today

    it's not the shorts/hedge funds who took the stock down the 1st time round to 7 or this time to 9, no it's the Longs puking , the hedge funds have been short this stock for 4 years ever since BBRY broke it's long term uptrend at 100/120 $ and moved into a solid downtrend.

    Prem Watsa is without a doubt an exceptional entrepreneur, but he is a fund manager and on BBRY he has got it absolutely wrong, this is his big mistake, he understands funds better than all of us and he knows he is caught and as such BBRY makes for the private investor a very risky holding, because you may think you like PW strategy, but you have no clue what he is up to and for all we know he may well be in the process of getting out .
    or contemplating taking the company private, if PW is totally convinced that BBRY is the best buy on the Board he should double up.
    i dare to guess that he is more likely working on a strategy to get out of BBRY than putting more money in.

    BBRY has become a totally unpredictable stock, the BOD cannot be trusted for their information, the major owners are down big time on their investment, the Funds never blinked an eye and will continue to trade this stock from the short side and the private investor will still be in the stock whilst PW may well be long gone, he is looking after his cash, not yours.

    if you have so much appreciation for his strategy, you may consider to sell yr BBRY holding and invest those monies into PW Fund's and participate in BBRY through his holdings, then at least if he gets out, you are out.
    Jul 6 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment