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wiesje

wiesje
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  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    Apple is at cross-roads, they have to make a huge decision and this is not uncommon for companies in transition to go through, especially as Apple has grown so much so spectacularly in e few years, as such also Management has to adapt to this overwhelming success, i mean they achieved in 5 years what Exxon did in a century and it Exxon went to 3 mergers to be where it is today.
    this pull-back in Apple's stock price from 700 to 400 is not just a price correction, it is also a correction for the whole company they have to decide how to proceed, they know the lucrative margins they has by being first are no longer there, they know their playing field has changed and they know that their real competitors are Google, Samsung, MSFT, Amazon and maybe FB and Yahoo.
    with all due respect but Apple is not worried abt Nokia or BBRY, those battle in the 20% market share which is always there for the "others" . Now Apple has to decide do we try and keep our margins as high as possible or do we go for volume and that's a huge decision for them, but i am confident they will do the right thing.
    I am defending Apple at this level because i like the risk/reward, people who followed my comments know i have been short the stock for a long time, i am no Apple-fan by just buying the stock.
    can Apple come lower, of course it can and maybe it will if the whole market slides so will Apple.

    MSFT is the best tech stock to own at present and i have said this since 28* when i argued with Paulo Santos who was very bearish on the stock, well we all know what MSFT has done, but I really don't believe MSFT has the same interests as Nokia, Nokia needed a white knight MSFT was there to provide it, yes they may have similar goals and this Alliance is successful, but it's all heading to MSFT stock improvement, what is Nokia getting out of this ? if Nokia , after continuing for the 3rd year to take massive restructuring costs and after launching these new very cool looking phones cannot come-up with a good profit at the bottom line, i fear the stock is heading back down and then what, what is there then left for Nokia as an encore ?
    Jun 12, 2013. 07:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    @ doggie : is not going to happen a Palace Revolution needs to come from the inside and they are all holding hands together , moreover it's fantastic news to MSFT, to have Nokia promote their system world wide and at the same time keep Nokia vulnerable and dependent , No it's very clear there is only one winner here and that is MSFT .
    Jun 12, 2013. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    there you are correct something which lost in 5 years 90% of it's value like Nokia and BBRY have a larger swing factor on the upside than on the downside .
    that also goes for Apple it is still up today compared to 5 years ago by 600% and as such it has potentially far more downside than Nokia or BBRY, but that has nothing to do with Trading or trend reading.

    Chippy made the point that Apple virtually has no shorts in the stock at present compared to BBRY and Nokia, of course it does not.
    Apple is still a bull stock in a corrective bear move after it's huge price surge of the last few years and as such it is to the Trade a stock to purchase on large set-backs.

    Nokia and BBRY with all due respect are exactly the opposite they are Bear stocks in a corrective bull move after getting hammered, so the Trade is looking to short the stock on rallies.
    only a confirmation of a turnaround in solid bottom-line numbers plus or minus will change the outlook for Nokia, BBRY and Apple, until then the Trend is your Friend.
    Jun 12, 2013. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    @ chippy: you are right that huge short position on BBRY is it's best asset and the only reason the stock is not trading below 12,50

    as far as Apple goes, being " too rich " on what basis ? out of the 435 $ share price 150 $ is cash, adding by the end of this year another 25 $ that takes it to 175 $ , that leaves a value for the biz of 260 $ a share, even if the company is giving in 50% of it's profits to 20 bio $ , that's a p/e of 12/13 , that's way below the sector and with that pile of cash ?

    Apple trading below 400 is like BBRY trading at 5 or Nokia at 2 , people are blinded by the sheer amount of Apple's market cap and that's been depressing Apple's p/e, we are talking here the best money earner on the planet and people are comparing that to 2 companies, which are still fighting for their survival.
    Jun 12, 2013. 04:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    @ author: You are talking your Book - You are assuming a change in trend which may happen or not happen

    the facts are : today for today Apple is making 40 bio a year, Nokia after all it's cost cutting and launching new phones is still to show a quarterly profit and BBRY is squeezing every profit out of every corner to stay just in the Black and has reported one quarter of profit a mere 100 mio.

    to me at present there is just one winner: MSFT

    Long MSFT, Apple , some Nokia and if anything i would fancy the short-side on BBRY
    Jun 12, 2013. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Nokia's Supply Issues Temporary? [View article]
    ultimately all proof is in the share price, all the rest is pure gossip and speculation, as far as i can see for the last 6 months ever since these new smart phones of Nokia became available that MSFT is Zooming and Nokia is sliding, now i understand both have far more interests than just the smart Phone biz, but this is what they work on together and what has gotten plenty of attention, so it's not as if things went unnoticed.
    it's early days still, but if by year end MSFT is up 30 or 40% on the year and Nokia is still going sideways at 2,60/2,90 euro's
    we all know who got the best deal out of this relationship and one must then seriously question Elop's loyalties.

    Nokia is very Lucky that Apple has as yet nothing new to show on the iPhone and that Samsung's shares at present are getting hit by the " Apple-wave selling " so they got some problems of their own, and BBRY well i think they have blown it all together, they are out of the race, they are reduced to a niche player.
    Jun 12, 2013. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Nokia's Supply Issues Temporary? [View article]
    the Nokia/MSFT Alliance is Nokia's life-line, but it's also Nokia's biggest handicap.

    i am Long the Alliance by being long both stocks, i started off by a 50/50 equal weight position i have now shifted that to 80% MSFT and just 20% Nokia, i have this nasty feeling that MSFT is just using Nokia as a vehicle to get the Window system on the world map and to world wide popularity for their system and that's working, they are starting to make headway, be it early days in actually quite an impressive way -

    but what abt Nokia ? MSFT is well aware of Nokia's short-comings but they are not providing a helping hand on the contrary they are actually testing all kind of MSFT smart phones and although they have so far no intention to get involved in producing, one wonders what MSFT intentions are long term for this Alliance , is MSFT actually well served by Nokia not making money ?
    the longer they needs MSFT's cash, the longer MSFT can dictate.

    Nokia's share price is struggling whereas MSFT is zooming, MSFT is getting all the credit for the windows smart Phone system and seeing that ( obviously amongst other things) rewarded in it's stock price which has gone up this year by almost 30% , there where in all this success Nokia has actually come down from 3,60 euro to 2,60 euro.

    this Alliance is NO joint-venture where everything is shared equally, no this is each for it's own account with all kind of conditions and restrictions, it's clear MSFT is calling the shots and Nokia is just hoping for the best.

    what is Elop's role in all of this ? and don't get fooled by his shares in NOK, that's mere change to MSFT.

    i am still Long the Alliance and i still believe it's a workable and successful combination, however the reward for share holders will be for those who are able to play this moving target between the 2 shares, Nokia is unfortunately getting the short-end of this deal, while doing most of the input and taking most of the risk, then again Cash is King and Cash dictates and Nokia has none of that and MSFT plenty.
    Jun 11, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    @ Panoplos: i am sorry you are disappointed and you feel let down as an Apple-fan , if I read through all yr remarks

    but these remarks are totally subjective and your opinion only, you are not expressing the view of the general public, they may react like you, but let's just wait and see.

    i am no Apple-fan, i like their products, i own them, i use them, but i don't go running to the store every time Apple comes with something new, what i have works for me and if later on i want to upgrade or change i will do so, but i am no collector of every new item they bring out.
    I am in Apple because i like the stock, i like the risk/reward on the stock and i believe Apple will outperform the market and their competitors within the next 6 to 12 months in SHARE PRICE, now it's clear if we have a summer lull or a general correction of the stock market Apple will surely come down in sympathy, but that's not what i am talking about.
    i am talking Apple's share price versus the competition and the market and then taking into account the risk/reward, i am sure there are stocks out there which can double in value, but those stock could also do under, you are an intelligent commentator, you know what i mean.
    Jun 11, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    @ Panoplos: not according to yday's volume, that was average , no indication there was massive selling which had to be absorbed by Apple doing huge buy-backs

    as far as the release news for iTV or iWatch or whatever, patience , it will come and it will be trend-setting, sometimes i feel the competition is more anxious to know what is coming out of Apple's think-tank than the guys running Apple.

    the shorts should take advantage of Apple's timing and cover on any dip that may occur in the stock, or they will live to regret it.

    Apple has learned from their failure on iMaps and the poor launch of the 5, now they leave nothing open for doubt, they come when they are ready and when they are ready , it's going to be the best available on the Globe.
    whether one buys it or not will not depend on the quality of the product, bcse that will be state of the art, it will depend on whether you want the product, period.

    i think we are all very blessed to have been able to get into the stock between 400 and 450, if you don't see, want or believe it.. that's up to you.
    Jun 11, 2013. 02:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    me neither and i am Long Apple - compared to the 2 previous WWDC's , the stock went down 2% and 1,7 % - so this one is better with a minus sign of just abt 0,5%.

    anyway, i am not Long Apple based on a week's performance , why don't we just wait and see where the stock is at year-end.

    is good to know, that there are some shorts in the stock, would hate to think that everybody is Long.
    Jun 11, 2013. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia May Still Be Able To Penetrate The U.S. Market [View article]
    a success for Nokia in the States would also hugely benefit MSFT, as they are in this together it is about time Nokia stops playing the under-dog in this Alliance and starts pushing some buttons to get MSFT into action.
    MSFT has the cash, the ability, the marketing and the weight to make things happen.
    there is a unique opportunity here to take some market share, as Apple and Samsung have as yet nothing new to show for, but that moment in time won't last forever, Nokia & MSFT should seize this opportunity and as a share holder i am counting on it.
    Long MSFT, Nokia & Apple.
    Jun 10, 2013. 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Outlook: Buy Amazon And Green Mountain Coffee [View article]
    interesting paper and good general assesment of the present overall market situation - tks .

    as far as yr 2 stock-picks : AMZN , i have been trading that stock from the short side , much to my peril and as i am not in the habit of throwing good money after bad money, i have stopped trying to outsmart the "over"-value of this stock.
    this stock has been by far the best "bear-killer" on the Board, i still have a hard time figuring out and comprending how Long a stock can continue to charm share holders for years without any profits to the bottom-line, the return is in the share price and hats-off to Bezos on that front he has been able to deliver big time, the stock keeps on running and has a phenomenal track-record in making new highs, this stock has definitely given a lot of pleasure to it's share holders, especially those who have been in from the beginning.
    the dream goes on and the business plan is very ambitious, nevertheless AMZN must satisfy their stock holders by continuing to move up in share price, i feel that the moment the stock really starts to hesitate, it will get hit by the "Apple selling wave ", but this is different Apple got hit whilst being full of cash and making buckets of money , AMZN is without that luxury, so if it get's hit by the Man with the Hammer it could get very ugly , i would abstain from getting involved in the stock, the risk/reward is not attractive to me.

    Green Coffee Mountain: I feel all coffee Roasters are a BUY, the green coffee price of coffee have come down from 335 cts per lb to 130 cts per lb, there is Always a delay in stock-rotation because of inventories , anything from 9 to 16 months, as such it is only now that the majority of the expensive stocks have been roasted away and that the mix from lower green coffee purchases are outweighing the previous expensive stocks, Coffee Roasters do not only blend Coffees from different origins they also blend the pricing on inventories.
    it is looking very good indeed for all coffee Roasters around the globe, the best buy to me would be NESTLE, the worlds largest coffee roaster and on top of that a good dividend payer and a very strong Multinational with a strong diversified portfolio .

    ( as i am Dutch i apologize for any Grammatical errors)
    Jun 10, 2013. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's WWDC Preview: Thoughts On Innovation, Market Position, And Observer Psychology [View article]
    you are entitled to your view and the beauty of the stock market is, if that's what you really feel - Go and Sell the stock big time

    but to put a number of 200$ or thereabout as a share price objective ?

    Apple as of now makes 40 bio a year and has 135 bio in cash,
    even if Apples profits were to half and that's an extreme drop in profits, then Apple should make 20 bio a year, at 200 $ a share that's a multiple of 10 , which is still very low for the tech industry, if one compares to FB, Google, MSFT, AMZN and so on and that with still a 140 bio in cash on their balance sheet, because you can't have it both ways either the cash is there or the amount of shares is reduced.

    i mean, one can be provocative for the purpose of making a statement, but this is over the top.
    Jun 10, 2013. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's WWDC Preview: Thoughts On Innovation, Market Position, And Observer Psychology [View article]
    Apple is an overall "bull - stock " which has been in a corrective "bear- move "

    so, experience teaches us : it's a long play buying opportunity , point of entry and timing as Always is debatable, but right here, right now at 440$ looks good to me.
    Jun 10, 2013. 12:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ Yesbutno: is OK, you and I differ in opinion nothing wrong with that, but i can see from the amounts of comments that you have not been participating too long on S/A, neither have i, just 12 months or so, nevertheless i am making this pint, bcse you refer "to my love for Apple ", you have no idea what you are talking abt, i have been short Apple since 650 $ all the way down to 385 $, i did not cover at that level, i covered when the stock moved back above 420 , i then sat on the fence for a while until i started to fancy the stock for the Long side , hence i only bought recently to go Long , my entry point is right here at 440 $ so i am live so to say.
    I have had many vivid debates on Apple , so there are plenty of people out there who know my view.
    I trade stocks, i am in for the money and i often am completely wrong, but as Long as the Rights overrule the Wrongs and i stay ahead of the game, i am OK

    If i feel BBRY can squeeze out the shorts with that enormous short position in their stock, i wll buy BBRY for that short squeeze, will i hold on to BBRY once the shorts are out, no way, I simply do not like the risk/reward on BBRY.
    will i buy Nokia and sell Apple if i see that Nokia is going to outperform Apple, sure i will, will I abandon Nokia if MSFT were ever to pull the plug on the Alliance and starts selling their own phones, you bet I will.

    so my Love for Apple is confined to liking their risk/reward, that changes for worse i am out.
    but for now i like it very, very much and i am looking for 500$ within weeks, not months.
    Jun 9, 2013. 11:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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