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wiesje

wiesje
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  • Apple's Newfound Glory [View article]
    dear Author , thank you for your very clear and well written paper.
    I agree Apple is now moving back to a growth stock, I Always expected Apple to be able to return to it's previous high of 700 $ in 18 months, now with the stock-split forthcoming and with these truely impressive numbers, without new products as yet hitting the market, I believe we will achieve the equivalent of the highs in 9 months and in 24 months Apple may well be on it's way to become the first trillion USD company.

    Long Apple as a Buy and Hold Stock, enjoying in the meantime the upped dividend.
    Apr 27 06:18 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    I agree with the author ( being Long Nokia and BBRY ) and I agree with the above comment.

    if big shots can't have it their way, they often decide to reduce and do whatever they think they have to do.
    last weeks dip was an over-reaction to someone liquidating, likely out of frustration not getting what he wanted , so what ?

    the stock is doing great so far and it's not just based on hope, it's based on change.

    Chen is our Man, the guy showed guts ( by taking an enormous provision to clean the company for once and all ) and vision to strike a strategic deal with Foxconn, now lets see what Chen can achieve over time.

    my money is on Chen, Long BBRY.
    Dec 30 05:48 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Best Days Are Yet To Come [View article]
    @ author: tks , excellent paper, could not agree more, it's not a question of wanting the stock , the question is how much and by when.
    for the technical traders: the stock is still moving sideways between 400 and 450, it's forming a solid base, there is a multiple inverted head and shoulder formation forming, which is one of the strongest reverse chart patterns.
    buy 50% of yr intended position now and buy 50% on dips, also worthwhile selling some out of the money puts and buying at the money calls ratio 2 to 1 to finance the trade.

    Long Apple, for the next 2 years there is a safety net , the dividend and the 60 bio buy back.
    and no matter what others are saying today for today Apple still has more cash than the Bank of England and is adding 8 to 10 bio every quarter.

    Long Apple, add on dips.
    Jun 20 12:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $420 A Share Could Have Marked The Bottom [View article]
    my dear friend, you are asking this a lot - is impossible to answer, better focus on the change of trend, here the author has a point the technical's on Apple show diverge, that could imply bottom-forming, but the share will have some serious work to do, it got badly damaged, the first reasonable rally is most likely going to be sold into by still disenchanted longs overhanging the stock, that's why it would be better if the stock were to move sideways for a while so that that selling comes down to the present market level and can be absorbed right here, that makes for less selling later on when the stock starts to move.
    it's looking promising and i think you can expect the stock to trade towards 500 by the second half of the year, but there is one huge unknown factor which may well make for a tremendous change in sentiment for all stocks and that is if the Fed is to change their policy, then there is only one thing you want to be Long off and those are put-options, preferably on stocks which trade at or near all time high, such as AMZN and GooGle.
    Mar 17 03:20 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
    ever since the stock hit 700 came down and failed to recover, the Fundamentals have been chewed over in every comment, on every blog and by every analyst on this planet and the conclusion was each time the same , Apple's fundamentals are good, better, best, phenomenal, unbelievable ... and yet the stock is right here at 525 and not at 725 or 925 .... why is that, how is that possible .?. fiscal cliff ? debt ceiling ? ... is the stock for some obscure reason being manipulated on the downside ? why would that be, Apple has been every stockholders hero, you should just buy and hold and the money comes in.. why did the music stop after 5 years of easy money ?....

    the answer to me is dead simple, the stock came down because everybody owns it, there was no more buying left to be done.
    the stock did not have a blow-off, it did not go to 700 and then went crazy or blew it's top, No it just gradually , steadily declined and as it came down and it could not bounce , because there were no shorts to cover, the Traders, Yes they saw this as an alarm going off and they started to short the stock, but nothing massive and today for today that picture has not changed the stock is still under pressure because of its own weight by long holders.
    there are no longer free lunches on Apple, the " perception" of the stock has changed, it is no longer the stock for Orphan's and Widow's trust funds ( expression from my country for a retirement fund).

    Apple still feels like it needs to shake-out some of those heavy Longs and that's why the stock cannot bounce.
    the risks on Apple's numbers coming out is far less on the upside than on the downside for the stock.

    i am short Apple.
    Jan 13 08:03 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week That Icahn Bought Apple [View article]
    yes, it's about time SA starts selecting Authors for how accurate their predictions are , there are Authors giving their view on each and every piece of news coming out from the news services and giving their explanation to why and how and although at times very well analyzed , some are dead-wrong on calling the stock each and every time and they keep on coming back especially on Apple, BBRY, MSFT, INTEL and most of them wrong but not giving-up with a bit of a twist they come back and yet again with more of the same, sure "one day " they will caal it right, but if they had put their money where their mouth was , they be dead in the water long time ago.

    I love this ' the author has no position and intends not to take any position within the next 72 hours " yes , and we all know why.
    Aug 17 08:24 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Windows 8 Fail: Now What? [View article]
    is complicated, the open interest or uncovered positions are not at all times exactly corresponding with the nett exposures.

    many hedge funds run multiple accounts on one stock, the BB ( black-box) pure number computer driven trading can be short the stock and the house account can be long the stock, as long as these positions have not be netted-off they are reported as 2 separate positions and as such can be bees as a short and a long in different accounts, but the net exposure the hedge fund has is zero.

    i , therefore pay more attention to the trend in the change of open interest than in the outright number.

    don't forget that BB or automated trading by hedge funds has NO human intervention, even if the Traders at the desk are bullish on a stock, but the computer is still negative that trade remains short, they will not intervene.

    only if volatility goes thru the roof on a certain stock will the computer give a signal to unwind the position long or short, other than that they just stick with it, until it gives a signal to act.

    Nokia has been overall, if one looks at the last years a stock to be short and some of the fund managers are long term trend followers, not short term, so as long as the overall trend is down, they stay short, they will however than let the traders at the desk trade against that short position, to catch the mid term moves.

    but for us investors, we should not look at the past, but value the stock as is today, and today for today my money is on the UP, because to me the company is turning, they are on the right track and even if that does not translate to immediate profits, they have a plan and it's working.
    Nokia is under control, they stopped the bleeding on the stock price and they have been stabilizing to improving for a good 12 months, obviously there are still set-back and they have not fixed all of their problems and issues, but hey they are working at it and I for one like what I see.
    so to me 4 $ is cheap and even 5$ is cheap at 7$ i consider selling and moving to the sidelines, until then I wait, my horizon 18 months to get towards 7 and in the meantime the downside is contained, MSFT is Nokia's safety-net, they still want it if it comes down.
    Aug 11 09:07 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The Market Not Buying Apple? [View article]
    Apple at the moment, after 8 months of drop, has now been going sideways for a month between 400/450

    for every buyer there is Always a seller and that's what we are seeing some of the institutional buyers and hedge funds are abandoning the stocks because there are better plays out there for them giving the right returns for their fund performance, Apple has been a down stock moving to sideways that's just not good enough for the money managers.

    however the mid to long term outlook on the buying side is quite different as Apple is embarking upon a 60 bio $ buy-back program, those shares will be taken from sellers and are then out of the system and that's the best bullish buying quality that exists, so even if the net margins on Apple products will decline sharply and profits go down from 40 bio a year to 30 bio or 25 bio, with less shares available the pe will improve, now Apple is trading at a pe of 10 and of 6 without the cash, which is way below the whole sector, whereas the sector cannot even by 50% match Apple's profits, Apple cannot for any long period of time trade below 400, it's merely a question do you want to tie up yr cash now at 425 on Apple or in October at 425 , but come next year it will be at 500 $.
    IMO this is a unique opportunity to get in on one of the worlds best money earners, even if their margins will decline by 35%.

    George, good report, tks - but don't forget at the end of the day, there are very few investors who will buy a stock showing minus signs on the Board, people buy plus signs, if and when Apple starts to move up the buying will emerge, until then it's treading water.
    Jun 15 08:46 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    Nokia and BBRY once dominant in the mob Phone world have never even come anywhere near the success and more importantly the profits that Apple has made.
    to dethrone Apple as King in the industry takes more than a revival of Nokia and BBRY or a copying Samsung

    people make the mistake of translating the fall in Apple's stock price with the fall of the company, one could not be more wrong than to draw that conclusion.
    Apple's pull-back in stock price , is nothing more than a correction after an unprecedented stock increase by a 1000% in 5 years, a correction of stock so much in demand by the general public was to happen, the problem was nobody knew from what level, well that is now known to us all, the level was 700 $ - that the margins would be somewhat compressed from extremely lucrative levels is also normal, that happens in all biz which mature , but even at lower net margins, Apple is still the best money earner on the Planet.

    as far as the Nokia/MSFT Alliance goes, that looks indeed very promising and they will succeed, but to become strong competition to Apple , Nokia must first prove that their resurrection of bankrupt levels is a turnaround for the long term, i believe so, but the jury is still out.
    the question in this Alliance with MSFT is rather, will Nokia get it's fair share of the success translated into it's stock price, or is MSFT having the better end of this deal ?
    and Alliance is no J/V where everything is shared on equal terms.

    Long Apple, MSFT & Nokia.
    Jun 9 04:49 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Non-Decline And Fall Of Apple [View article]
    i totally dislike a shock and awe buyback, it never works.
    Apple is still extremely fragile after getting beaten-up severely.
    the stock is doing fine, it's trying to find a base and it's absorbing the selling.
    this is what we want, we don't want some crazy purchase sceme sothat all the mad money men and fast money pours back in to the stock, we want the opposite we want them out.
    at the moment all the overhead selling is brought down to market level by disenchanting longs, you come in the stock now with blazing guns and you achieve nothing, only that the selling withdraws and that spec buying comes in and then after a bounce, the stock will end up lower then where we are today.
    let the stock just work thru the selling, the next leg up will be healthier and longer.
    Mar 13 11:59 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Last Year I Said Sell -- Buy Now? [View article]
    profound analyzed and well written paper, but wrong conclusion as far as I go.

    Apple is not a changed company, it is the only company ever to have existed to have gone through a total unbelievable growth, this company went in 5 years from a 70 bio mkt cap to 700 , that's 1000 % growth, this company made more money then any other company on the Globe.
    the company just needs a breather, in stock value, in products, Management needs time to adjust to the sheer size of this company with it's unheard amount of cash on the balance-sheet.
    you are making totally unfounded assumptions out of your well analyzed paper, you nor anybody else have any idea what is brewing in Apple's "think-tank" you have no clue what companies they may actually already look to acquire, you know nothing, neither do I, or all those mad analysts.
    what we do know is that they have 135 bio in cash and that they are still one of the two best money earners on the planet and that they achieved that in 5 years and the other one in a 100 years.
    but i sincerely hope that people follow your advise and all get out of the stock, preferably here and that they feel the stock should be sold on every little bump.
    because i see that cemented-floor at 500/535,where tons of people added to their already existing Longs, which became a concrete-ceiling once the stock went through 500 and which is obviously now a great point of resistance, I see that weakening by the day, as all the disenchanted, tired Longs hoping to get out on the bounce at even money at 525, now bring that selling down to these levels, may that continue for a while so they are all out and that resistance at 500/535 is no more than a point on the charts.
    so, thank you for getting everybody out.
    long Apple and looking for the stock to stabilize over time and then during the later part of the year establish a nice, solid long term uptrend, with fewer participants.
    and just to let you know, i was short Apple on the decline, covered at 450, turned and went Long and now adding on dips.
    Mar 13 09:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shorts Are Running Away [View article]
    shorts are running for the exit and that's ongoing, but short term the stock is getting overbought, RSI, Stochastic, Oscillator all indicate that the stock needs some cooling-off, there is also a Gap @ 8,00 and stocks which run away have a tendency to want to fill gaps.

    but one thing is very clear the stock has turned, the momentum is up, so BUY dips, this stock is to be traded from the Long side, not the Short side.
    Jan 13 02:48 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Letter To BlackBerry Management And Directors [View article]
    I have responded at length on so many papers and yours is an excellent summary, thank you for that - I suffice with some simple questions

    which BOD of a public listed company is favoring a single 10% share holder over the other 90% who have invested in their company and as such how can a potential buyer make an offer on a public listed company owning just 10% and refusing to add to his share holding, but just seeking the possibilities of a private buy-out provided he can find partners to take the other 90%, on top of that he received ridiculous conditions and the BOD accepts all that by agreeing to a LOI.

    a 10% share holder with approval of the BOD is doing a hold-up over 90% of the remaining share holders and apparently there is bugger all we can do .

    best regards from a frustrated Dutch share holder.


    still grateful though what the great Canadian people did for my country 70 years ago, but I will never again invest in a Canadian company.
    Oct 1 08:50 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Is Now Fully Valued [View article]
    well this is where you are wrong then, bcse a healthy business in an environment where there is no or little price speculation because of massive competition the p/e are awarded much higher levels and that's why the analysts are all upping their price forecast, it's not based on net asset value versus market cap, it's based on sound returns on non-speculative earnings and future outlook.
    Nokia is not just rallying because they got rid of a lot of overheads and of the mob devices and got a truck-load of cash, no there is now a "new Nokia" and that is perceived as a far more robust , less speculative business.

    that's why you cannot take your own gut-feel estimate, you have to look at the Industry-sector and use that p/e and than add a premium for healthy companies or a discount for the unhealthy ones.
    Sep 18 05:55 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    no way, they are talking the stock down to buy -

    it may slip a bit further, but we are at the end of the down momentum, the stock is forming a base.
    in 3 to 6 months from now it will be already in it's next uptrend, slowly but steadily and in 1 year from now, all those who did not buy in the low 400's believing the stock was done are regretting not having participated, the stock will be well above 500 and likely not come back into the 400's for quite some time.

    don't look at every print on Apple thru a magnifying glass, the stock is clean it dropped abt 300 $ from the top , looking for the last 25 $ is just mean and silly.
    Apr 3 07:35 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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