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wiesje

wiesje
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  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    no way, they are talking the stock down to buy -

    it may slip a bit further, but we are at the end of the down momentum, the stock is forming a base.
    in 3 to 6 months from now it will be already in it's next uptrend, slowly but steadily and in 1 year from now, all those who did not buy in the low 400's believing the stock was done are regretting not having participated, the stock will be well above 500 and likely not come back into the 400's for quite some time.

    don't look at every print on Apple thru a magnifying glass, the stock is clean it dropped abt 300 $ from the top , looking for the last 25 $ is just mean and silly.
    Apr 3 07:35 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BlackBerry Is A Better Investment Than Apple [View article]
    Nokia is a volume pusher, we are talking making money , BBRY can make money, Nokia can never make money, it's done, it's over, it lives by the grace of MSFT's funding, they pull the plug, Nokia has no chance to survive, it is by far the weakest of all mob and smart phone manufacturers, shame but that's a fact. balance sheet wise Nokia is bankrupt, this recovery from 1,35 euro to 3,65 euro and now back to 2,50 was the " dead cat bounce " Nokia is lost and that's a real shame, bcse it was at one time the King of the mob phone market.
    Mar 19 03:55 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: The ever-bullish Brian White reports his Apple Monitor, which tracks the sales of component suppliers that depend heavily on Apple (AAPL -1.1%), saw a 31% M/M drop in February, its worst performance on record for the month. Foxconn parent Hon Hai saw a 25% M/M drop. Baird's William Power, meanwhile, says his firm's semiconductor checks indicate iPhone/iPad orders are in-line with his estimates, but below consensus. White maintains an $888 PT, and Power a $465 PT. [View news story]
    the stock took on some huge damage, it needs time to heal, it's smack in the buying zone if one considers that the break out 3 years ago took the stock from 200 to 700, a fifty % pull-back takes the stock to 450, you got to allow for up to 10% over-swing factor, when a stock drops as much and as quickly as this one.
    conclusion we are there: the downside objective has been reached
    425 looks good to me.
    now let's see if the stock can form a base.
    Long Apple , adding on dips and feel very good holding the stock.
    the funds reduced big time, a lot of tired longs liquidated , let's hope some of the mad money men are getting out too, more disenchanted longs abandoning the stock.
    is normal, just be patient the next leg up will be healthier, let's hope none of the fast money returns and we can have a nice gradual uptrend taking the stock back to 500 by the second half of the year and 600 next year.
    the stock is cleaning itself, that's what we want.
    looking good, have some faith in the Board, they are not stupid people , they got plenty in the pipe-line and they own the best "think-tank'' of all the tech companies, they'll come back with vengeance, if you own Samsung and GoogLe shares now is the time to switch to Apple. anyway that's how i see it.
    Mar 11 12:02 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting Big On BlackBerry [View article]

    I see BBRY as a Long Play , but still moving in a range, the good news the range is well above the lows, which I feel are behind us for good

    8/9 usd lower end and 10/12 upper end, for the stock to move this year significantly above 12 $ and break out on the upside, besides the one off spike, I do not see, BBRY is still in the process of turning and it is looking promising indeed, but for BBRY to really move to much higher ground we need to see some earnings coming in and that is still some time to go as Chen himself predicted BBRY will only turn in profits from 2016 and that's a long time frame for a stock to continue to move upwards without showing profits.

    buy weakness and trade the range, there is good money to be made as witnessed recently, perhaps it is worthwhile keeping some core Long Position as a buy and hold , but I personally would prefer to trade the range from the Long side.

    some distinguished authors even predicted BBRY was a great sale after earnings, one distinguished author even complimented the other one and was writing " it would even have been a better sell before earnings ", well the stock moved up by a 100% how is that for calling a stock a great sale at the lows, anyway that author ended up owning out of the money calls, from a previous poor trade and is now looking smart.
    
    Feb 16 06:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Set To Soar, Target Price $17 [View article]
    Andy, I have been a Trader for a commodity and hedge fund company my whole live.

    institutions do not just trade on the exchange, they have different way to hide their hands, they can trade off-exchange like OTC's and dark-pools

    there are agreements between Investment Funds ( those are LT investing in a stock ) and Hedge Funds, both operate in dark-pools, for the Hedge Funds to be able to short a stock they need to borrow shares from the investment funds, for that borrowing they pay a lending fee which can amount to 5% per annum, can be more if stocks are volatile or less, can be as low as 1,5% and is known to have been above 6,5%

    but now this is the important part, there are also pricing agreements and that works as follows the Investment fund is provided by the Hedge fund with a put option on the stock and the investment is providing a call option on the stock to the Hedge fund

    when BBRY collapsed from 100 $ to below 10$ one and a half year ago, NO large investment fund would have stayed with the stock unless he had an escape clause, that clause was provided by the Hedge Funds whom were short, you think investment Funds let their investment go to zero without taking action ?

    same goes for the way up, I am not saying we wont see a short squeeze I am not saying the stock cannot go up to 12 or maybe 14 on an overshoot of covering, but what I am saying that there is a level at which a big chunk of the hedge funds are out without you seeing that buying on the tape, it will eventually be reported and it will show in the open interest eventually, but you will not see a 100 mio buying shares hit the Board, that's done off exchange.

    and that's why I say don't get carried away and calling this stock to go to 17$, although not impossible is nevertheless getting carried away

    you really think that 4 months ago when PW the Canadian WB had the opportunity to take this stock private at 9$ and believe me he had the financing lined up, he just did not want the risk, that PW now 4 months on thinks this stock is worth 17$

    nuts, never. he is the cleverest money manager in the whole of Canada and he would let such an opportunity go by, he dropped out because he knows the company is worth 10 or maybe 12 at this stage and that was far too close to his buying of 9, too much risk, that's why he did not take it private.

    again, the stock is bullish, the outlook for the company is bullish, but don't go crazy

    let's see some earnings 10 to 12 $ is fair value for the stock once the shorts are done and yes it may overshoot to 15 or even possibly 17$, but I doubt it will hold at this stage.
    take it easy.
    

    regards Wiesje
    Jan 20 02:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Foxconn Partnership - A Match Made In Heaven Or Hell? [View article]
    the Foxconn partner ship/alliance is not a one-off.
    Chen is trying to save BBRY and as such he needs to completely overhaul the company and it's structure, Chen will be looking to clean the biz , get it on the rails and partner out all biz segments in BBRY, BBM and services, whatever.
    BBRY will be a R&D think-tank for partners and BBRY will end up being like an investment vehicle.

    I think Chen is thinking completely different, he knows staying as is and taking on Apple, Google or Samsung is useless, he needs to come up with something new and he needs strategic partners.

    PW is still pulling the strings, this battle is far from over, PW is a Money Manager , they have a plan, they must have busted their brains, but there is a reason they pulled from selling the company.
    PW saw it was the wrong approach, selling would not get them the right value, BBRY was like an orphan nobody wanted it, so everybody started calling BBRY's demise, not PW he needed to find somebody who could really turn the whole thing upside down and he found him, Chen.

    BBRY is still going to surprise.
    Jan 2 06:59 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Foxconn Partnership - A Match Made In Heaven Or Hell? [View article]

    @ contrarianwise
    we suffered enough, is pay-back time, the shorts are no way done, there is much more to come, sit tight, they have to pay-up to search for sellers.

    there are simply not enough Speculative Longs in the stock and the option makers can't give it to them because they are running for cover to hedge their own exposures.

    this is now a 100% technical move, nothing to do with Chen ( he initiated it, but that's all )

    I know how these guys think, they will try to cover everywhere, also off exchange in OTC trades ( over the counter Trades from Banks or investment houses ) and in dark-pools, but they can't get the volume.
    the real longs in the stocks are long above the market, they finally see this coming to them, they are not going to give it to the shorts.

    the stock will be above 8 on it's way to 10 when these guys are done.

    This is BBRY's Nokia moment, you got to sweat it out now, the shorts made us suffer enough, now it's our turn on a much smaller scale, the stock has not yet gone crazy, that is still to come.

    if you are getting nervous by some puts to protect a sudden down swing, but keep yr long, this is far from over.

    good luck
    Jan 2 10:56 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Down, Metals Down - Which One Is Lying? [View article]
    dear Author, i followed your articles, you are a good writer and are a decent technical analyst

    yet the way you respond to people disagreeing with your view is so god damn arrogant that I know having been professionally a chief trader for one of the largest commodity and hedge funds on this planet that you are a very poor trader, because anyone who thinks and believes he is way better than anyone else is a guaranteed failure as a money maker.

    your aggressive response to some of the comments tell me you are an emotional Trader, those are useless and are penny collectors, trying to catch every move, but often completely missing the big picture, incapable of analyzing supply and demand and totally over-focused on every move on the chart.
    Dec 8 03:46 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Apple iPhone Killers [View article]
    Mr Blair has been bearish on Apple in the low 400's , in the mid 400's in the high 400s and now at 500, he has been shorting the stock all the way and yet he ends up every time at a higher level short, his short is a moving target so to say.

    every article written on Apple with the even the slightest undertone of being bearish he calls excellent.

    i have followed his articles as well as his comments on Apple, I never heard of him when Apple moved from 70 to 700$ and never heard of him when it went down from 700 to 400, it is only as from the period Apple went towards the lows that he has been writing about how bearish and lost this stock is, ever since the stock moved up by a 100$

    he has also been wrong on BBRY and he has been bullish on Intel which did nothing, he writes extremely well and well analyzed, he claims he makes hundreds of thousands of $, yet I have not seen him call one stock right so far.
    Sep 6 08:25 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Moving Toward Safe Haven Status Within A Long-Term Trading Range? [View article]
    @ apple-investor: i think you have to try and differentiate Apple the company and Apple's stock price, the company is fine, they are working according schedule, they promised last year a dividend and they have a stock-buy-back program in place, there is no need to adjust that at present, i for one am glad they have not given in so far to outside pressure, i have great confidence in the Board, they promised to look into the cash issue and if and when appropriate they will do that by upping the dividend, but they should not be pressured to do that. Apple's got plenty in the pipe-line, but they also know they better be right in time than rushed into another iMap problem, they also know that the competition especially Samsung are great at copying, but not so good as coming up with anything new them-selves, so why the rush ?
    as far as the stock price goes, that's damaged goods at the moment, but all the " bad " is in the price by now, it's just that at every new low, another bunch of tired longs throw in the towel and the buyers are not rushed they pick and choose scale-down.
    the problem for many is that they own the stock way above present levels and have little flexibility so than you can only sit and watch and as you so correctly point out you almost sense you have to sell, you start hating the share you once loved.
    buy yourself some protection, buy October at the money puts and grant 2 x out of the money calls, to help pay for that, stop looking at 600 or 700 that's just not on, but Apple will establish a trading range, likely 400/550, but most important put your position at sleeping level, the puts will give you at least another 6 month window, time is on the side of the Bulls, the present trend is with the Bears.
    i am buying Apple, building a long position from 450 down to 400,
    i think over time Apple is a buy.
    it's quite normal all these negative stories coming out, it's not the story justifying the stock - price, it's the stock-price providing BS news for stories, now all of sudden GooGle is the next 1000 $ share, just wait for that stock to get hit by the "Apple-wave" .
    Mar 3 01:57 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fire Sale: Part 3 - The Playlist [View article]
    you are entitled to your view, i am sidelined as far as Apple goes, but in my experience anybody who comes over as aggressive as you, without any fundamental explanation, but for calling the best share ever a dog, is someone who is more likely to lose money than make money, only people who trade stocks with respect make money on a longer term basis, the rest have merely had a once in a lifetime lucky hand.
    Dec 27 10:40 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Beginning Of Tesla's Run To $200? [View article]

    dear Author on the way to 200 $, don't know, but don't think so

    if you want to talk technicalities and chart patterns, how about this

    Tesla opens tomorrow, or one of the next trading days with a GAP on the down below 132,50

    than this whole explosion between 132,50 and 145 is one huge "Island top suck-in " totally meaningless for the move and the stock will trade below 100$ within the next 8 to 12 weeks and the whole bull move on Tesla was a 12 month experience and is over and out.

    I say the odds the above happening is 65%, Tesla to me is a short trade for the stock, protected with an out of the money call

    I am short Tesla @ 170$ and for now remain unmoved by this bull swing in a to me bear trend for the stock after a huge bull run, which has ended and is not about to resume, dead cat bounce , that's what this - imho.
    Dec 4 01:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Acquisition Of BlackBerry: To Be Or Not To Be? [View article]
    people imo continue to confuse the value of BBRY as an ongoing independent exchange quoted company or BBRY being integrated in full by a 3rd party or BBRY being sold off in bits and pieces or BBRY being taken private.

    as an ongoing business BBRY has a value of 5 $ a share, it will need to restructure and re-organize so dramatically that the company will be just a mere shadow of what it once was, it will have to be a pure niche player and it will have to focus on where it can make money as well for outlets for its products and services and searching for those markets where it has an edge. BBRY will be no longer competition to any of the major players, but it could be a nice profitable biz over time, be it that the upside for it's share price is limited, but it will recover and I believe for one it will trade back towards 8 $ again, once the initial panic selling is done, which will knock the stock down to possibly 5$.

    if BBRY is bought in full, the price will be meager, but we are looking at somewhere between 9 and 11 $

    if the company is auctioned off in bits and pieces the revenue could be well in the region of 12 $ to 15 $, that's a distinct possibility.

    if we than look at today's share price of 8 $ and one is negative for the outcome on the stock, i for one believe it is the wrong approach.
    the people calling for BBRY to have zero value are out of touch with all reality, this is no Enron or MF Global, this company is not over its head in debt, it has just no life being as is, it does not differ from Noklia, where Nokia was 3 months ago, but for the fact that Nokia had MSFT and BBRY has PW and that is clearly a huge difference , one is a committed partner, the other one is a raider.

    BBRY has far more upside than downside, the likelihood of BBRY staying as is and remain on the exchange and continue to struggle on, is less than 5%.

    to me BBRY is a buy, there is extremely good money to be made at an acceptable risk and within a 6 week period.
    Oct 14 05:23 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Plan To Take Over BlackBerry Is Positive, Not Negative [View article]
    @ PlentyoStocks , correct , but you do know there is one multiple for a company who wants to buy a business that is not for sale and there is another multiple for a company which is for sale and there are no buyers.
    Aug 19 11:32 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Plan To Take Over BlackBerry Is Positive, Not Negative [View article]
    author: maybe you ought to slow down a little on yr papers, you are pushing more out than BBRY can sell phones -

    anyway you have just come down by 10$ on the possible share valuation, you also claim that share holders over a 5 year period stand to gain quite a lot if BBRY can get their act together

    you do realize that if BBRY gets/is sold , which the company is working at as their " numero uno " priority, that the share holders ( the public ) in BBRY are out, unless you are now the official spokesman for the the " buy-out clan " or the "newco ", share holders gain ziltch, most of them are down on the stock.
    Aug 19 10:11 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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