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EnforceTheLaw

EnforceTheLaw
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  • 5 ETF Ideas To Ride Out A Correction [View article]
    They need more than tweaking. I've done OK using my strategy, but it takes more time and attention than I like.

    Looking back historically, your XVZ went down less than VXZ, but both were horrible in responding to short-term spikes -- even when the index or VXX were up 10% or more in one day, neither XVZ or VXZ moved the needle.
    Jul 17 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Killeen: A Picky Player's Guide To A Cautiously Optimistic Mining Market [View article]
    Also a newbie here. Seems like solid info, especially about mgmt team quality. But I would be remiss if I did not ask about Jeff Killeen's background.

    Thx
    Apr 15 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    @Rhianni and @Qniform --

    Good catches. Thank you! You make very important points. I wouldn’t want you (or especially the IRS) to misunderstand!

    I was talking in my shorthand, so further detail is certainly in order.

    I establish and leave positions in three to five tranches. So, for example, if the purchase price falls a few % below the original price, I buy the second tranche in the IRA. Third tranche, bought in taxable. Fourth and fifth in IRA. (Though rarely has there been anything more than 4 tranches).

    Once the price moves up, the process is reversed -- making the first sale in the taxable account, locking in a tax loss. And yes, any repurchase is after the 31 day wash sale expires. Sales in the IRA only occur at prices above the purchase price there -- because as you point out, taking a loss in an IRA does not help you with tax losses.

    I never inititate a position in an IRA. That helps to keep the returns up in the IRA. All my IRA purchases also must pay an above average, SAFE dividend... with good dividend coverage, good credit risk, low debt. That makes it less painful if there is not a quick rebound.

    Of course, if the shares rise after initial purchase, I sell some and consider that I never reached a full position a good "problem" to have. Rarely do the shares go straight up, and I add during pullbacks so positions are usually at least half filled.

    Thanks again for your comments... Good analysis and critique is how we learn. (Too bad the politicians don't follow that thought).
    Dec 27 02:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF Is A Lousy Way To Bet On Gold [View article]
    @Kramer-Miller: Excellent reminder of ALL of the variables -- hardly ever mentioned by the talking heads, and never all at once

    @moon: Excellent Reader's Digest version
    Dec 17 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 ETFs To Sell Right Now [View article]
    How may legitimate currencies have the wild fluctuation in value bitcoin enjoys?

    The merchants who take bitcoin and claim that they don't immediately turn it into something of solid value are either being dishonest or are incompetent. Apparently they have not even heard of how currency fluctuation can affect profit.

    Those that think bitcoin is a way to conduct commerce in private are also walking down primrose path. First, thinking that anything that relies on zapping things around the internet is private defies common sense. Second, drug dealers have learned about bitcoin privacy via the FBI knocking on their door, without even help from the NSA.
    Dec 15 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Qni --

    I think you hit the nail squarely. These are a bond-like investments. Since I don't want to play in the futures markets, I keep in mind the depleting assets and bought a basket.

    I start the investments in a taxable account, then move to my Roth IRA if (when) there are losses.

    Again, my main reason for being in them is because I can't store oil or gas. The ETNs that are supposed to track those, do not reliably. So the RTs are my hedge against a spike in energy prices or eventual inflation.

    Between buying on the dips, and selling on recoveries, I have actually made a little money, and I look at the distributions as just icing on the cake.

    Thanks, ForensAcct for giving us all a reminder of reality.
    Nov 27 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor Beckons [View article]
    It is also not hard to actually pay for a $5 million transaction and mis-represent the details. Xethanol did it, repeatedly.

    So do Pyramid Schemes.
    Apr 4 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor Beckons [View article]
    I don't know either way about the companies being discussed.

    I do know that some frauds are MUCH more sophisticated than others. Xethanol, that I link to more information above, did something to get Goldman Sachs to invest... which, I think, caused a lot of others to reduce their due dil.

    Make sure you commit Reagan-like resources to do your verification before parting with your $$ -- no matter what side of the debate you are on.
    Apr 4 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor Beckons [View article]
    Xethanol -- touting supposed cellulosic ethanol breakthrough -- also purchased patents, factories and other real estate.

    http://bit.ly/YVZe7o

    The fraud was so sophisticated, it was studied at Stanford:

    http://stanford.io/YVZenC
    Apr 4 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: An Attractive Investment For 2013 [View article]
    Remember, you don't have to "average down" with the same stock, and you don't have to make up your money in the same stock.

    You could find another e & P company to average down with. I usually buy in tranches for this reason -- the occasional bad pick. The tranche purchases in my IRA are smaller (allowing greater number if there is a long downward slide).

    Also, I frequently start a position (especially when trying to pick the bottom for the long-term value part of my portfolio) by writing a cash covered put. You either get the stock at a price below the price on the day you entered the order, or you put your cash to work and earned about 10% (if the put expires worthless).
    Jan 30 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana (ECA +1%) may be a takeover target after the departure of its CEO, Bloomberg speculates, after a bet on natural gas wiped out more than a third of the Canadian explorer’s value. Even as gas prices remain depressed, ECA’s gas-rich formations in Canada and the U.S. may appeal to companies looking to export the fuel to Asia. [View news story]
    Without commenting on the takeover rumor, hasn't the Canadian government approved joint ventures, even with the Chinese. The prices on these seemed to indicate that ECA as a whole is undervalued.

    What if a Canadian company partnered with a major E & P company from a friendly company to buy ECA? (The new company being 49% owned by the major)
    Jan 29 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GasLog: Expect Meaningful Upside In 2013 [View article]
    auto44,

    You might also want to look at APA. CVX just came in as a partner in the Kitimat LNG facility in Canada. It is the only one completely approved, though at least one other is close behind.

    I like the GLOG story. Don't know how I missed it. I'll probably wait for a pull-back on one of the market's irrational days.
    Jan 28 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Safeway's Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    Labutes,

    Long replies are no problem. The Devil is frequently in the details.

    I have not seen any competitors announce such real estate moves, and SWY certainly seems to have more stores housed in very nice neighborhood shopping centers. I'll keep digging for detail.

    About location: that is one thing I like about SWY. They seem to pick them well, and both the stores and centers they are in generally look nicer than the competition. Many locations also sell gasoline, with discounts automatically linked to the loyalty program.

    WMT is opening local "grocery only" stores. But I think that format will actually hurt their margins overall, and will have a tough time drawing shoppers from SWY in particular. With Just for U pricing, SWY's prices are competitive, too.

    Thanks, again, for putting out some interesting facts.
    Nov 13 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Safeway's Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    Article provides excellent summary of issues... but I'd appreciate the author's thoughts on a couple things.

    1. On the last conference call, SWY said that the Just for U implementation costs were complete; that in areas rolled out it has been very successful; competitors can duplicate, but it will take time and cost for them to catch up.

    2. Underperforming stores have been sold or closed.

    3. All stores have been renovated (look great and are producing better profitability)

    Is management being truthful that these are competitive advantages that will improve results going forward?

    Last, one thing you did not mention was the Property Development Division. SWY owns the real estate under a lot of their stores. Any idea of current value vs. what it is on the books?

    Likewise, during the real estate depression, SWY spent money developing new shopping centers anchored by their stores. (Presumably getting good price on land and construction cost). The one near me is fully occupied by busy tenants. Is this a new income stream and competitive advantage for the long-term?
    Nov 10 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Coal [View article]
    ACI is invested in new coal export capacity on the West Coast via a partnership with Australia's Ambre. The greenies are going nuts about these and a few other proposed terminals.

    (Basically on the "principle" that the U.S. shouldn't poison the rest of the world. Note to greenies: Even if you believe in global warning, you need to target the U.N. and other countries to institute polution controls. The U.S. has cleaned up to a great extent, and doing more until the rest of the world comes on board just shoots us in the ass).

    One of the ACI projects is the redevelopment of an old industrial port facility. The cleanup is already in progress, so this site probably has the best chance of being one of the first going online.

    I added ACI near the bottom, seeing its terminal ownership potential as a differentiator. I don't like the balance sheet, and am treating it as an unexpiring call option. With Patriot Coal going BK and the election results in coal country, I don't think the Dems will tolerate Obama continuing his war on coal.
    Nov 9 08:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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