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mepa84

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  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ Systemet,
    You are confusing WP and WP8. Total WP phones sold till the end of April are 10.4M as we can break it down to
    4Q12: (0.5*4.4M)/0.8 = 2.75M
    1Q13: (2/3 * 5.6)/0.8 = 4.65M
    April: (7.1M/3)/0.8 = 3M (assumed based on 7.1M Lumias for 2Q)
    We know that 20M WP7xx has been sold so far. Let’s assume 2/3 of all WP7xx phones are actively installing new Apps and are counted in AdDuplex survey. Then, we reach the number 13.3M +10.4M =23.7M. Now, 4.4% of 23.7M means 1.04M L520 for April alone.

    Now, for May 2013 we add another 3M to 23.3M and we get 26.3M WP and 9% of that means 2.37M which by subtracting 1.04M from it we get the figure 1.33M L520. It appears that either 7.1M Lumias for 2Q is very conservative or we will have a drop in ASP as the low price Lumias take more share of the pie. I have already bet on 9M Lumias this quarter.
    Jun 10 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ easypickens,
    You probably mean 880 Thousands in May alone. How did you get this number?
    Jun 9 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC's Analysis Of Nokia Is Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the well-written article.
    RBC analysis reminds me of Blackberry fanboys’ articles and comments here on SA as their small brains consider Nokia’s comeback and success equal to BBRY:s death. They have absolutely no understanding that this market is enormous and Android phones have 67% of smartphone market share and if BBRY wants to be successful it should take market share from iOS and Android and Nokia has a maximum 3-4% market share and its 1-2% gain has no influence whatsoever on BBRY turnaround.
    Jun 6 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Dominates The Windows 8 Smartphone Market [View article]
    Under my valuation Apple is also worth $439.81
    Apr 15 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Solucky,
    But 6M WP8 for Q1 is not bad as 4.8M of them can be Lumia and with 2.5M WP7 then we get 7.3M Lumia phones, a 65% increase compared to Q4 12.
    Apr 8 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Efs,

    Apple, Ford, Ericsson, do you want more? All of stuff you wrote any investor knows. Come up with some analysis just similar what people in this forum do, ex. Use Kantar data and other facts and estimate Lumia sale this Q.
    Apr 8 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Efs,
    I also wish yoy could write better analysis instead of writing history to receive more clicks and get a couple of bucks more.
    Apr 8 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Solucky,
    Since Nok has 80% of WP market then even with sale of 6M WP8 nokia should have sold 4.8M WP8 phones. Adding 2.5M WP7 as L800, L710 in Europe, L510 in China, L505 in Latin America and L900 in US sell still well we will have Lumia sell numbers about 7.3M which is a 65% growth versus Q4 2012. This number becomes more interesting when we consider the fact that Q1 and Q4 are the weakest and strongest Qs, respectively.
    Apr 7 07:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK) sold 68M-70M smartphones in Q1, up from an estimated 63M in Q4, according to 5 analysts polled by Reuters. Though the Galaxy S III/IV and Note II receive far more ink, much of this growth is fueled by low-end/mid-range Android models such as the Galaxy Young and Galaxy Fame. These phones, along with Samsung's Rex feature phone line, are adding to the pressure placed on Nokia's (NOK) feature phone ops. Earlier this week, Bernstein reported the S IV's production rate is around 10M units/month. (Samsung Q1 results[View news story]
    What a strange posting by SA, Samsung's sale growth from 63M to 70M is attributed to Nokia's loss of market share while it only sold 4.4M Lumia phones last Q. Analysts and editors do not dare even to mention Apple's market share loss and need to find stupid excuses to explain Samsung's growth!
    Apr 5 08:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia May Announce Earnings Any Day Now [View article]
    Based on Kantar Worldpanel Comtech report Windows Phone eco-system enjoyed a hundred percent increase in major markets such as UK, US, Germany, Urban China and etc for the three months Dec, Jan and Feb 2013 compared to the same period a year before.
    http://bit.ly/16saB93
    We know that Nokia sold 2M Lumia Q1 2012. We know also that Lumia suffered from substantial supply constraint Dec. 2012 compared to March 2013 as well as L620 was introduced in Jan 2013 with meaningful sales in Feb. and March 2013, which means if we had data for three months Jan-March 2013 WP should have had greater market share gain than Dec-Feb period. In addition, Nokia had less than 50% market share in WP eco-system last year and around 75% this year, which means Lumia gained market share not only from other eco-systems but also in WP family. We can also assume a worldwide 25% increase in smartphone sale. I have done the following math to predict Lumia numbers.
    100% WP y/to/y market share increase:
    2M x 2 = 4M
    4M/3= 1.33M phones per month
    Considering March as a stronger month than Dec. 2012 with 30% due to L620 as well as no supply issue:
    1.3M x 1.3 = 1.7M for March
    1.33+1.33M+1.7M = 4.35M Jan-March
    Considering market share gain in WP eco-system
    75%/50% = 1.5
    4.35M x 1.5 = 6.53M
    And considering 25% increase in global smartphone sale:
    6.53 x 1.25 = 8.2M
    Almost a hundred percent increase in Lumia sales. Now, the question is whether NSN and Asha did repeat the great job in Q4 2012 in order to help Nokia beat the guidance to force the company to give a positive warning. I am not sure they did a good job this Q and, thus, Nokia will not surprise us this time.

    Disclaimer: I have assumed some numbers such as market shares.
    Apr 1 08:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia May Announce Earnings Any Day Now [View article]
    My gut feeling is that Nokia will beat the street with great margin this Q, however, they do not give any update this time and my call options become worthless.
    Apr 1 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
    Seppo2,

    Good point, I own 29k Nok shares at NYSE and will put a limit order tomorrow.
    Mar 26 08:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 920T (NOK) batches are still quickly selling out in China ... and that's not a good thing, argues Tero Kuittinen, since it points to ongoing production issues. Also of concern is the apparent delay of the Indian launch of the mid-range Lumia 620 (crucial to Nokia's emerging markets efforts) to early March. Kuittinen suggests declining volumes have hurt the priority given to Nokia by component suppliers, leading to shortages. Bloomberg previously reported only 30K 920T units had been shipped to China Mobile as of Jan. 30. [View news story]
    The reason behind Nokia’s decision to postpone the launch of 620 in India is that it is selling very well in European countries such as Germany, Italy and UK. In other words, this is a reallocation of the supply which is reasonable as when a product is selling out in a market and the supply cannot meet the demand it is foolish to supply the produced units to an untested market.
    Feb 20 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Earnings Preview Intervention Could Illustrate Internal Pressure On Elop [View article]
    Sal,
    It seems that you have not done your homework. At least at two other occasions Nokia gave upbeat warnings or updates. Incidentally, one was exactly on Sep. 11, 2011 and the other one was in Oct. 2000. So, you can see that this has happened in the past and this time it was not a conspiracy.

    Your claim that after 2 days drop in stock price Elop announced these numbers makes no sense at all as everybody knows that it takes many days to prepare these data and a night is not enough for that.

    I believe that two days selloff was caused by leak of info regarding the update in prior days to that. In other words, somebody in NOKIA or MSFT got the information that there would be an update in coming days though he/she did not get full information about the content. Since it is more dangerous to have partial information than no information at all, some people who got this info started selling or shorting the stock. Some kind of selloffs happened in the past just days before warnings. I hope they got the lesson from this miss and do not repeat this unethical behavior in future.
    Jan 11 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nokia Earnings, Don't Expect Surprises Based On Handsets [View article]
    Marv09,

    I tried to make graphs for WP sale for 2011 and 2012 based on your comment and both became very ridiculous. For 2011, in Nov. the sale was miserable then it picked up in Dec. just before the week of Christmas which it went to almost zero. For 2012, first in Nov. the sale was very high but then dropped almost to zero in Dec. up to the Christmas week which it spiked. I guess based on these two curves Steve Ballmer jumped out and screamed 4 and 5 times sale in selected weeks in Nov. and Christmas shopping.

    BTW, Steve Ballmer said Christmas shopping and not Christmas week, does not that mean the period between thanksgiving at the end of Nov. to Christmas day?
    Jan 9 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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