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mepa84

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  • Nokia 1020 Channel Checks [View article]
    Thank you very much for your survey and solid article.
    Please keep in mind that L1020 is a phone for mostly technical savvy people who usually do their shopping online. People who shop at AT&T stores are usually not placed in this category. In other words, grandmas and housewives who form the majority of these stores’ traffic do not need such camera. In addition, online shoppers do their homework by looking around and most likely buy from Walmart and Amazon, saving $50 discount and tens of dollars of sales tax.
    Aug 23 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Analysts Are Upgrading Their Estimates [View article]
    @AH
    Actually Nokia wrote off $130M for these WP7 and Symbian components 3Q12. So, the money that is earned by selling them are free money to the company and in case WP7 sale becomes stagnant the company and its share should not be affected.
    Aug 20 02:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Attacks Competitors By Lowering Lumia Prices [View article]
    Davidoff,

    The things you are saying look to be your dream, NOT based on any facts. Stop dreaming and open your eyes. Lumia is taking markets of the developing countries one by one. Within one or two years a smartphone will not cost more than $300. At that time Apple and its investors will need somebody to bail it out.
    Aug 14 07:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia Still A Buy? [View article]
    Solucky,

    I have the same concerns as well. I am sitting on a lot of $NOK shares and call options. However, I convinced myself to keep my shares based on these reasons:

    1. Regarding Kantar, we know that WP8 grows mostly by L520/L521 excellent sale in India, China and even US, in particular in June, which is missing in this report.

    2. We know that NSN and Nokia group are not done with restructuring the cash burn can be very well related to those one-time costs.

    On the other hand, i am not very bullish regarding NSN deal as I think there could be a reason that Siemens was desperate to sell it with much lower price than expected and in future we will see which one of these companies decision was right.
    Jul 1 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ Solucky
    AdDuplex chooses some popular Apps and counts the number of downloads on 24th of each month. The data are always biased towards newer models as some of the old models are not in use anymore or has already installed the Apps or are not actively download Apps anymore. The easiest way to remove this bias is to consider that some percentage of the old models are not active as in my analysis I considered 2/3 of WP7xx are only counted in AdDuplex statistics.

    Some Nokia fan blogs used to use the total number of sold WP phones to figure out the number of sold new releases and their data were always biased. However, applying 2/3 factor for WP7xx could give us a more realistic picture.
    Jun 10 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    Systemet,

    4.4% of all WP phones out there which are used, not how many were sold in 1Q13 or 4Q12. From 4Q11 to 1Q13 Nokia alone has sold 19.5M WP phones

    1M+2M+4M+2.5M+4.4M+5.6M = 19.5M
    Still no confusion?
    Jun 10 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ Systemet,
    You are confusing WP and WP8. Total WP phones sold till the end of April are 10.4M as we can break it down to
    4Q12: (0.5*4.4M)/0.8 = 2.75M
    1Q13: (2/3 * 5.6)/0.8 = 4.65M
    April: (7.1M/3)/0.8 = 3M (assumed based on 7.1M Lumias for 2Q)
    We know that 20M WP7xx has been sold so far. Let’s assume 2/3 of all WP7xx phones are actively installing new Apps and are counted in AdDuplex survey. Then, we reach the number 13.3M +10.4M =23.7M. Now, 4.4% of 23.7M means 1.04M L520 for April alone.

    Now, for May 2013 we add another 3M to 23.3M and we get 26.3M WP and 9% of that means 2.37M which by subtracting 1.04M from it we get the figure 1.33M L520. It appears that either 7.1M Lumias for 2Q is very conservative or we will have a drop in ASP as the low price Lumias take more share of the pie. I have already bet on 9M Lumias this quarter.
    Jun 10 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growing Threat To Apple And Samsung [View article]
    @ easypickens,
    You probably mean 880 Thousands in May alone. How did you get this number?
    Jun 9 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC's Analysis Of Nokia Is Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the well-written article.
    RBC analysis reminds me of Blackberry fanboys’ articles and comments here on SA as their small brains consider Nokia’s comeback and success equal to BBRY:s death. They have absolutely no understanding that this market is enormous and Android phones have 67% of smartphone market share and if BBRY wants to be successful it should take market share from iOS and Android and Nokia has a maximum 3-4% market share and its 1-2% gain has no influence whatsoever on BBRY turnaround.
    Jun 6 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Dominates The Windows 8 Smartphone Market [View article]
    Under my valuation Apple is also worth $439.81
    Apr 15 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Solucky,
    But 6M WP8 for Q1 is not bad as 4.8M of them can be Lumia and with 2.5M WP7 then we get 7.3M Lumia phones, a 65% increase compared to Q4 12.
    Apr 8 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Efs,

    Apple, Ford, Ericsson, do you want more? All of stuff you wrote any investor knows. Come up with some analysis just similar what people in this forum do, ex. Use Kantar data and other facts and estimate Lumia sale this Q.
    Apr 8 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Efs,
    I also wish yoy could write better analysis instead of writing history to receive more clicks and get a couple of bucks more.
    Apr 8 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    Solucky,
    Since Nok has 80% of WP market then even with sale of 6M WP8 nokia should have sold 4.8M WP8 phones. Adding 2.5M WP7 as L800, L710 in Europe, L510 in China, L505 in Latin America and L900 in US sell still well we will have Lumia sell numbers about 7.3M which is a 65% growth versus Q4 2012. This number becomes more interesting when we consider the fact that Q1 and Q4 are the weakest and strongest Qs, respectively.
    Apr 7 07:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia May Announce Earnings Any Day Now [View article]
    Based on Kantar Worldpanel Comtech report Windows Phone eco-system enjoyed a hundred percent increase in major markets such as UK, US, Germany, Urban China and etc for the three months Dec, Jan and Feb 2013 compared to the same period a year before.
    http://bit.ly/16saB93
    We know that Nokia sold 2M Lumia Q1 2012. We know also that Lumia suffered from substantial supply constraint Dec. 2012 compared to March 2013 as well as L620 was introduced in Jan 2013 with meaningful sales in Feb. and March 2013, which means if we had data for three months Jan-March 2013 WP should have had greater market share gain than Dec-Feb period. In addition, Nokia had less than 50% market share in WP eco-system last year and around 75% this year, which means Lumia gained market share not only from other eco-systems but also in WP family. We can also assume a worldwide 25% increase in smartphone sale. I have done the following math to predict Lumia numbers.
    100% WP y/to/y market share increase:
    2M x 2 = 4M
    4M/3= 1.33M phones per month
    Considering March as a stronger month than Dec. 2012 with 30% due to L620 as well as no supply issue:
    1.3M x 1.3 = 1.7M for March
    1.33+1.33M+1.7M = 4.35M Jan-March
    Considering market share gain in WP eco-system
    75%/50% = 1.5
    4.35M x 1.5 = 6.53M
    And considering 25% increase in global smartphone sale:
    6.53 x 1.25 = 8.2M
    Almost a hundred percent increase in Lumia sales. Now, the question is whether NSN and Asha did repeat the great job in Q4 2012 in order to help Nokia beat the guidance to force the company to give a positive warning. I am not sure they did a good job this Q and, thus, Nokia will not surprise us this time.

    Disclaimer: I have assumed some numbers such as market shares.
    Apr 1 08:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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