trumanburbank's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/208521/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/158684-a-power-energy-generation-systems-ltd-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-712695 712695
"...Even so, an improvement in solar energy conversion efficiency from thin film panels from 8% to 13-15% would be a major breakthrough and would be huge news for the company. I share your skepticism. This line of business remains unproven. Nonetheless, I love the company and think that it has enough profitable and promising lines of business to generate significant growth over the coming two years."]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 13:34:29 -0400
"...Even so, an improvement in solar energy conversion efficiency from thin film panels from 8% to 13-15% would be a major breakthrough and would be huge news for the company. I share your skepticism. This line of business remains unproven. Nonetheless, I love the company and think that it has enough profitable and promising lines of business to generate significant growth over the coming two years."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158684-a-power-energy-generation-systems-ltd-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-711064 711064 Reading the transcript, I think you're right to question the "30% efficiency" remark. I think the translation was mangled -- you'll note that the quote was, "...30 to 15%" efficiency. So I think the correct translation should've been, "...13 to 15%" not 30 to 15%. Even so, an improvement in solar energy conversion efficiency from thin film

On Aug 30 03:19 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> BIPV company they bought for $50M(?) wil raise their film efficiency from 8% to 30%? fact: not without a technological breakthrough not yet invented, much less developed...worries me about sanity/rationality of the entire enterprise.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:50:28 -0400 Reading the transcript, I think you're right to question the "30% efficiency" remark. I think the translation was mangled -- you'll note that the quote was, "...30 to 15%" efficiency. So I think the correct translation should've been, "...13 to 15%" not 30 to 15%. Even so, an improvement in solar energy conversion efficiency from thin film

On Aug 30 03:19 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> BIPV company they bought for $50M(?) wil raise their film efficiency from 8% to 30%? fact: not without a technological breakthrough not yet invented, much less developed...worries me about sanity/rationality of the entire enterprise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-595570 595570 Love the company and the stock; thanks for the analysis (updating your analysis of a couple of years ago, which was also very good, if a little ahead-of-its-time in relation to stock price).

Correction/question related to sales prices per sq. meter in Xi'an: you state that
"Assuming Puhua achieves net income of 25% sales this would translate to net income, for CHLN alone, in the region of $100 million over the 4-year life of the project. These figures are arrived at by using sales price per sq metre of $850 – being recent sales price per sq metre achieved by CHLN. In reality Puhua is a very upscale project, is situated directly on the Ba river front and it should command selling prices a great deal higher than just $850 per sq metre, or $80 per sq feet."

Although it's possible that CHLN will achieve such prices in Puhua, the company recently quoted 4,955 RMB per sq meter in other projects for Q2, which translates into about $658/sq meter, not $850. This relatively modest housing cost in Xi'an is actually a significant positive for this company. Property prices in Xi'an have never experienced the bubble or crash seen in the coastal cities. Xi'an is much more affordable and has experienced steady, sustainable growth in sales generally and $ per sq meter. In addition, Xi'an is not overbuilt -- living space per capita is well below most other large cities, leading to substantial pent-up demand among Xi'an's large upper-middle class population (CHLN's typical target customer up to now).

Keep the generally excellent articles coming. Thanks.
]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:21:22 -0400 Love the company and the stock; thanks for the analysis (updating your analysis of a couple of years ago, which was also very good, if a little ahead-of-its-time in relation to stock price).

Correction/question related to sales prices per sq. meter in Xi'an: you state that
"Assuming Puhua achieves net income of 25% sales this would translate to net income, for CHLN alone, in the region of $100 million over the 4-year life of the project. These figures are arrived at by using sales price per sq metre of $850 – being recent sales price per sq metre achieved by CHLN. In reality Puhua is a very upscale project, is situated directly on the Ba river front and it should command selling prices a great deal higher than just $850 per sq metre, or $80 per sq feet."

Although it's possible that CHLN will achieve such prices in Puhua, the company recently quoted 4,955 RMB per sq meter in other projects for Q2, which translates into about $658/sq meter, not $850. This relatively modest housing cost in Xi'an is actually a significant positive for this company. Property prices in Xi'an have never experienced the bubble or crash seen in the coastal cities. Xi'an is much more affordable and has experienced steady, sustainable growth in sales generally and $ per sq meter. In addition, Xi'an is not overbuilt -- living space per capita is well below most other large cities, leading to substantial pent-up demand among Xi'an's large upper-middle class population (CHLN's typical target customer up to now).

Keep the generally excellent articles coming. Thanks.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120279-go-east-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-387933 387933 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:40:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110846-the-madoff-affair-greed-s-victory-over-common-sense?source=feed#comment-331466 331466
As I stated, due diligence doesn't always prevent fraud, but it does detect fraud, expose it and stop it with a high degree of certainty when dd tools are used appropriately. And when applied prior to investment, dd can prevent a particular investor from participating in a fraud such as the one perpetrated by Mr. Madoff. Of course, as we learned, if the police and regulators are informed and follow up appropriately, this type of dd should also bring the whole fraud to light, although it seems that unresponsive regulators failed to act on the signals in this instance. ]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:15:54 -0500
As I stated, due diligence doesn't always prevent fraud, but it does detect fraud, expose it and stop it with a high degree of certainty when dd tools are used appropriately. And when applied prior to investment, dd can prevent a particular investor from participating in a fraud such as the one perpetrated by Mr. Madoff. Of course, as we learned, if the police and regulators are informed and follow up appropriately, this type of dd should also bring the whole fraud to light, although it seems that unresponsive regulators failed to act on the signals in this instance. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110846-the-madoff-affair-greed-s-victory-over-common-sense?source=feed#comment-331456 331456
(Disclosure: I'm not in the risk-management business, nor am I a CPA, but I do understand the fundamentals of internal controls, fraud prevention and forensic accounting.)

It ain't rocket science, but fiduciaries, managers of OPM (Other People's Money) and those who handle the public purse are responsible for understanding these tools well enough to know how and when to employ them.)]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:04:14 -0500
(Disclosure: I'm not in the risk-management business, nor am I a CPA, but I do understand the fundamentals of internal controls, fraud prevention and forensic accounting.)

It ain't rocket science, but fiduciaries, managers of OPM (Other People's Money) and those who handle the public purse are responsible for understanding these tools well enough to know how and when to employ them.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99955-china-wind-power-for-1-3b-people?source=feed#comment-285265 285265
It was recently named to Forbes List of 'Asia's Best 200 Under A Billion for the second year in a row. Current P/E about 9.

Disclosure: I'm long Jinpan (NASDAQ:JST)

]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:58:23 -0400
It was recently named to Forbes List of 'Asia's Best 200 Under A Billion for the second year in a row. Current P/E about 9.

Disclosure: I'm long Jinpan (NASDAQ:JST)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99955-china-wind-power-for-1-3b-people?source=feed#comment-285264 285264
It was recently named to Forbes List of 'Asia's Best 200 Under A Billion for the second year in a row. Current P/E about 9.

Disclosure: I'm long Jinpan (NASDAQ:JST)

]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:58:23 -0400
It was recently named to Forbes List of 'Asia's Best 200 Under A Billion for the second year in a row. Current P/E about 9.

Disclosure: I'm long Jinpan (NASDAQ:JST)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85370-solar-grade-a-silicon-revolution?source=feed#comment-227370 227370
blogs.spectrum.ieee.or...]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 20:07:44 -0400
blogs.spectrum.ieee.or...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85895-emerging-markets-infrastructure-is-booming?source=feed#comment-210752 210752
One more pure play is Jinpan International (JST:AMEX), a small but profitable and rapidly growing Chinese high-tech producer of electrical trasformers that should benefit from expansion of the electric grid in China (90% of company sales are in China). Currently selling a TTM PE of about 14, and just opened new production plant last month.

There must be many other firms with similar pieces of the transportation, power, water/sewer systems that will benefit from increasing governmental infrastructure investments, but it's difficult to find pure plays.

Disclosure: long JST]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:02:28 -0400
One more pure play is Jinpan International (JST:AMEX), a small but profitable and rapidly growing Chinese high-tech producer of electrical trasformers that should benefit from expansion of the electric grid in China (90% of company sales are in China). Currently selling a TTM PE of about 14, and just opened new production plant last month.

There must be many other firms with similar pieces of the transportation, power, water/sewer systems that will benefit from increasing governmental infrastructure investments, but it's difficult to find pure plays.

Disclosure: long JST]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85058-chinese-solar-stocks-present-compelling-value?source=feed#comment-208182 208182 Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:34:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85058-chinese-solar-stocks-present-compelling-value?source=feed#comment-208181 208181
S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION OF TRINA SOLAR ADSS Updating selected Q2 guidance, TSL now expects revenues of $200M-$205M, gross margin of 22.5%-23.5%, and operating margins of 14%-15.2%. These metrics are notably above our model and previous guidance. Consequently, we are raising our '08 earnings per ADS estimate by $0.54 to $3.72, supported by our confidence that management will continue to execute growth plans. ]]> Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:32:52 -0400
S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION OF TRINA SOLAR ADSS Updating selected Q2 guidance, TSL now expects revenues of $200M-$205M, gross margin of 22.5%-23.5%, and operating margins of 14%-15.2%. These metrics are notably above our model and previous guidance. Consequently, we are raising our '08 earnings per ADS estimate by $0.54 to $3.72, supported by our confidence that management will continue to execute growth plans. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80269-china-s-biggest-real-estate-developer-approved-for-ipo?source=feed#comment-183455 183455
"Under Xi'an's new development plan, which was approved by the State Council of China on May 10, 2008 and covers the years 2008 through 2020, the population of the Main City Zone is expected to grow from 3.1 million people in 2007 to 4.5 million in 2010 and 5.28 million in 2020.

The new development plan also specifies that the average living area per person in the Main City Zone will increase from 161 square feet in 2007 to 237 square feet in 2010 and 355 square feet in 2020. To meet the new living area specifications, 567.4 million square feet of new housing will need to be built by 2010, and a total of 1.4 billion square feet of new housing will need to be added in the intervening 13 years from today to meet the new minimum specification by the end of 2020."

This is typical of growth projections for large cities in China. A recent McKinsey report estimated that China will soon have a billion urban residents, an increase from the present 650 million or so -- an increase roughly equivalent to the present population of the US.

Chinese real estate development has a considerable run ahead, with the occassional Beijing bubble along the way.

Disclosre: I own China Housing and Land Development (CHLN: NASDAQ)

]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 12:37:04 -0400
"Under Xi'an's new development plan, which was approved by the State Council of China on May 10, 2008 and covers the years 2008 through 2020, the population of the Main City Zone is expected to grow from 3.1 million people in 2007 to 4.5 million in 2010 and 5.28 million in 2020.

The new development plan also specifies that the average living area per person in the Main City Zone will increase from 161 square feet in 2007 to 237 square feet in 2010 and 355 square feet in 2020. To meet the new living area specifications, 567.4 million square feet of new housing will need to be built by 2010, and a total of 1.4 billion square feet of new housing will need to be added in the intervening 13 years from today to meet the new minimum specification by the end of 2020."

This is typical of growth projections for large cities in China. A recent McKinsey report estimated that China will soon have a billion urban residents, an increase from the present 650 million or so -- an increase roughly equivalent to the present population of the US.

Chinese real estate development has a considerable run ahead, with the occassional Beijing bubble along the way.

Disclosre: I own China Housing and Land Development (CHLN: NASDAQ)

]]>