BeachRider

Topped Out?

I agree that there is a strong connection between the health of real-estate and the health of many banks. I also agree that the GDP info is key in establishing whether we could possibly double-dip.

As to the current lack in free-market behavior, that is taking longer than I wanted, too. That is probably for the good, though. Too many free-marketers 'foresee' a quick and inevitable plunge into dismal economic times. Until they find a way to 'sell' a correction to the affected governments, they shouldn't be surprised if those governments choose to hold-onto free market controls for a while longer (remember the 70s?).

Whatever we do, the 'free market' will be adjusted to detect future reoccurrences of too-big-to-fail situations.

Closing Update for Thursday, Sept. 17 - Narrow Losses

ORCL is an interesting stock for the next few months. It should be able to track other large-tech stocks, but people are gathering fear about the JAVA assimilation. You always had to have a certain sense-of-humor about Larry's bravado, but it seemed to help move the company.

My guess is that Sun assets won't generate anything-like $1Bn+ in the first year. Because of Belgium and the severe paring yet-to-be-done with Sun assets.

I will watch carefully, though.

This Advance Will Be Measured in Days, Not Months

Some of the SA articles show how companies (like IBM) are doing the math to post higher margins and profits, even if revenues are going down. IBM will be criticized for smiting costs (jobs!) with its corporate cudgel. The hardest part will be the churning of the workforce. Each company will need to adapt to survive.

As to investing, do the math carefully. If this author is advising that fundamental stats don't apply to stock pricing, then he is advising that sentiment about the stock is a bigger part of valuation than company performance. Both certainly affect security value, but company future & company performance will always be the biggest factors in setting the value of its securities. These hi-demand, low-demand squeezes give opportunities for trader-income, but they were also the biggest part of what put many of those hedge funds under water.

51 Option Ideas for Bears

HPQ is showing up in too many bear-scenarios. There must be some kind of negative sentiment on their future success with EDS and Computer Storage. The IA-32 server business is still sound, but not much growth in CY2009. There is no clear signal with their IA-64 (Itanium) stuff.

The New Dow Jones Industrial Average: Calculations and Individual Weightings

Marco,
Nice spreadsheet. I love spreadsheets. Thanks.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

GM reorganizing Delphi. Not much of a surprise, they depend on Delphi. It is very important that the engagement rigidly follows the plan for rapid re-privatization of both companies, though.

How to Profit from Possible U.S. Credit Downgrade

Interesting scenario. Other than political alignment, the UK & USA don't have much similarity in their financial underpinnings, though. Credit is more than just measuring the amount of spending for this kind of technical analysis.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Oracle is buying Sun...
This is an amazing turn of events. It is a substantial change in the orientation of Oracle. They need to show the market that they know how to plan for such a change. That is why ORCL is down 5% right now.
I am surprised, so is Microsoft's CEO. This is an amazing turn of events.
Onward and upward!

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

The markets could certainly fall some more, but both sides of this argument have valid signposts that their trend will hold. One has to look at the position of the USA in the global economy and find it to be one of the most-organized while being the most intellectually fractured of the leading economies.

It has to be that the thought-processes of the USA need to be looked at for the intellectual fractures. We can disagree on what needs to be done, but we need to get into doing it quickly.

Economic leadership from the 90s and early 2000s must step back and measure our next step. We are clearly committed to some kind of deficit spending, so get over that (as a concept, the degree can still be discussed). It sounds too much like there are people rallying their choirs and not motivating the nation.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The market believes that Sun and IBM are not going to merge. The good news is that Sun lives to battle another day. The bad news is that they will give up most of the up-tick that they got from this discussion. Sun was at 4.97 on 3/17 before they went to 8.89 on 3/18.