seekingvalue

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

Nice recommendations. Thanks.

I noticed you picked CONN on Motley Fool and it has since fallen 45%-- the credit they have extended to customers isn't performing too well. The sell off seems like an overreaction and I've started looking into this one fairly extensively, considering a purchase. Have you done enough analysis that you would feel comfortable putting real money into CONN?

Ukrainian Power Play Could Benefit Turkcell

They did not. They raised it from 59 cents last year to 79 cents this year. The effective increase was even greater because the dollar was much stronger vs. the Turkish lira this year compared to last year.

Other bad news? No, nothing significant. They have been somewhat affected by the global downturn and currency fluctuation, but that's about it.

(I am long TKC)

On Aug 12 11:42 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> I looked at Turkcell as a dividend play - I believe they just cut
> their dividend this year or announced some other type of bad news.
>
>
> did they or am I mistaken ?

4 Reasons to Like SBS

I agree that this is a compelling value play. There were two other issues I noticed when researching these guys that worried me a bit. 1) The state of Sao Paolo owns roughly 51%, which means that it may not be run in a way that maximizes broader shareholder value. For instance, the state has a huge overdue water & sewage bill with SBS, and SBS says in their annual report that they may not be able to collect. 2) The report also says that SBS gets a large amount of their water from a couple of state-owned reservoirs. Currently they get this water for free, but they say that if the state should start charging them it could be a problem.

Now, this report I read is almost a year old now, so things may have changed. And I don't know how things really work in Brazil... maybe these issues aren't such a big deal. I'd love to hear if anyone has new information or a Brazilian insiders perspective.

All that said, if it gets down to $25 or so, there would be enough margin for error that I'll be a buyer.

TurkCell: A Worthwhile Long Term Investment

I was also impressed by Turkey and the Turkish people on a visit in 2002. My wife has been very impressed by the quality of TKC employees in her interactions with their technical staff. But most importantly, I just like the value here. Despite a 38% drop in the lira relative to the dollar, they're still on track to make roughly $1.38 billion this year (this is just a guestimate = 4 x Q1 earnings). With a market cap of $11.33 billion, this gives them a P/E of 8.2. If the dollar hadn't had such a huge run-up vs. the lira, earnings for this year would probably be close to last year's $1.84 billion (Q1 earnings in lira dropped only 3.5%). That would leave you with a P/E of roughly 6.2. And as Albert Mayer pointed out, they've got a solid balance sheet, with Cash and Equivalents minus total liabilities of over $500 million. Finally, the dividend payout is roughly 6.2%; not bad.

5 (More) Profitable Smallcaps Trading at a Fraction of Tangible Book Value

Thanks for the post. I like this type of investment and I did own ZINC from the fall until very recently. I liked the looks of GSIG here, but on further reading, they spent about $320 million on an acquisition in August (after their last filing), so their tangible book is much lower now. I don't know what it is, but it seems that GSIG isn't the screaming bargain it appears at first glance.

Bailout, Schmailout

You make great points. I would love to see this as a NYTimes editorial.

GSI Group: Lasering In on a Dirt Cheap Net/Net Stock

As far as I can see, this would be a net/net stock except that they purchased Excel Technologies for $350 million. That was payed for with cash and 'external financing', so it's probably not net/net any more. But please let me know if I'm mistaken.

5 Impressive Stocks in This Difficult Market

Are you kidding? This is an article? Shouldn't there be some useful information here?

Well, here's an article of my own. My five best performing stocks this year are Boston Beer Company (SAM), Wellcare Group (WCG), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Verenium (VRNM) and Ceradyne(CRDN). I bought them all at recent lows and they've done very well for me. Probably that means you should buy them and they'll do well for you too. Right?

CPI Aerostructures: Good Things Come in Small Packages

Nice find (CVU), and nice article. It is smaller than I usually look at, but with contracts in place and more in the bidding process, it does seem to have good growth and value characteristics.

Minefields in LatAm: Dodging Political Pitfalls

Great post. Thank you.
Would love to see something similar for Africa...

Ceradyne: Why the Low Valuation?

I'm long CRDN from around $34 for the reasons you guys outlined above, plus the strong balance sheet. I think the odds are good that the armor orders will continue a while longer, and they do have good opportunities with the Bull armored vehicle, solar cell crucibles and aluminum smelting. But let's be honest, this isn't a clear value play. While ~40% of revenues are non-defense, only around 10% of profits are non-defense. If the (Bull, solar, aluminum) opportunities don't work out, and if armor sales drop toward pre-Iraq levels, CRDN could hit $15 or less. If armor holds up AND the opportunities work out, I wouldn't be surprised to see $100+. So on the whole, I do think CRDN is a good buy at $38-$39. But it's not a forehead slapping, back up the truck, buy it and rest easy in the assurance of future wealth kind of buy.

The Corn Shortage: Ideas for Investors

Another possible play here could be sugar. One of the main reasons sodas and other drinks are sweetened with high fructose corn syrup is that HFCS was significantly cheaper than sugar. But with corn prices up so much, sugar becomes competitive if not cheaper. (Sugar prices have been very low recently.) Some drinks have already switched to sugar (Sobe, Jones sodas). If demand for sugar picks up, Imperial Sugar (IPSU) should benefit significantly. IPSU is already a deep value pick (based on short term issues). If sugar demand picks up as a replacement for corn, it could really take off.

My Nutrisystem Bonehead Move

Looks like you might get another chance at this one after all. I bought in yesterday and if it keeps going down I'm going to have to find more money for another purchase.

Even if the existing business is shaky (I'm not convinced it is), the valuation and balance sheet are solid, and growth opportunities look very good (addition of frozen meals, and a maintenance program for once the weight is off, and international expansion plans, and Zero Water).