ziz's Comments

GM's Next Last Chance

Sat, 07 Mar 2009 08:23:32 -0500

Something to read from March 2005

www.williambowles.info...

Automakers: A Pitiful Trio

Sun, 07 Dec 2008 06:26:56 -0500

A lesson in risk analysis and economic forecasting.

Chance of picking the Ace of Spades from a deck of playing cards
1:52 Easy Peasy 101 Stats

When I tell you that the guy picking the card is a magician in amagic show...hmmm. well 1:1 Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

Maybe however the magician is incompetent, he kps pulling cards and doesn't find the Ace ...

Why it's right here in your purse ma'am.

The real world magicians are the cabal of Bankers ,their auditors, who have prepared frauduent Balance sheets for years with all sorts of off BS chicanery and financial legerdemain, paying profits and bonuses until their capital base has disappeared.

It's an asymmetric world and it's the magicians who hold the cards.

GM: More Bailout-Worthy than Citigroup

Sat, 06 Dec 2008 13:58:12 -0500

"The 2 Mode Hybrid Chevy Tahoe—a full size SUV that seats seven with great towing capability—gets the same highway gas mileage (21 mpg highway) as a Toyota Camry and received Green Car of the Year at the LA Auto Show. "

... and costs (US$50 K basic) as much as Wagoners private jet.

The regular 5.6 litre petrol Tahoe (US$33K basic) gives you 14 mpg on the highway.

GM: More Bailout-Worthy than Citigroup

Sat, 06 Dec 2008 13:47:27 -0500

Let's imagine that a rogue asteroid hits and wipes out the manufacturing plants of GM/Chrysler Ford in North America.

US based foreign owned car companies will take up their declining market share with efficient , well made, reliable, vehicles.

They will of course need parts suppliers, showrooms, need to build new lant, hires ......

OK the total market will be smaller, there will be some folks hurt - but North America will have a highly efficient , compact, well run, auto industry.

The squalid boondoggle cobbled together will keep this wretched crew in a job until after the Superbowl .... better spend those Billions on ensuring some security for the retirees and re-training the redundant.

Maybe someone somewhere could find a job for Wagoner .

General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:47:11 -0500

"The Obama administration is likely to reduce military spending dramatically."

Really ?

" I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. "

Remarks of Senator Barack Obama, "The American Promise",Democratic National Convention, August 28, 2008 Denver, Colorado

"We should expand our ground forces by adding 65,000 soldiers to the army and 27,000 marines. "

Renewing American Leadership by Barack Obama -From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007 Journal of Foreign Relations

Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 09:02:15 -0500

There are 2 peak Oil Moments

POM1 = when oil runs out
POM2 = when folks realise that POM1 will happen real soon now

POM2 is when energy becomes a political problem and not an econmic problem.

British Pound Crashes to New Lows as the Economic Crisis Deepens

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:05:15 -0500

You have failed to mention the impact of the rising costs of imported energy denominated in US$'s - gas, oil, coal.

The Next Bubble

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 10:34:29 -0400

The tech bubbe was caused by unreasonable expectations based on over selling by excited tech enthusiasts reinforced by ignorance. The major tech developments have given us well run supermarkets, carriers as good as UPS, and super surveillance of all our transactions and telephone usage.

Tech is now a a solid supplier and makes solid returns but still have overvalued stock so yields are and will remain low.

The Finance bubble is based on dishonest balance sheets that owe more to fiction than accountancy presented by dishonest fianciers. Their shredded Balance sheets will take a decade to repair and restore - if they survive.

The best strategy is put your capital where it makes a modest guaranteed return and have a handy lump (say 20%) for special situations and aim top make a modest doubling of the gambling pot every twelve months overall so you can aim for 10% return after inflation.

S & P 4% decadal yield - is that a surprise ?

Northern Rock Crisis: Old and New Solutions

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:59:18 -0400

It is manifestly clear that the bank was insolvent - for which there are in the UK 2 tests ;

1. Do the bank assets eceed their laibalities ?
2. Can the bank meet it's liabilities as they fall due ?

If the Directors (the only people who can make the decision , who may of course also take advice) consider they are insolvent they ae obliged by Company law to call in an an Insolvency Practitioner.

Loose claims we made by poiticians (including) the Chancellor of the Exchequer that the bank wa solvent - for which they had no ability to determine or position to make a claim.

As such they acted as Shadow Directors and may in fcat have claims made against them by shareholders.

EVidently the best solution in the circumstances, but by no means perfect was the old boys soft shoe shuffle by the bank over the weekend and carry on as if nothing had happened.

Mervyn was no mug and placed the decision fairly and squarely on the plates of PM and Cahncellor (onward and upward) and they fluffed it.

The Germns did it with the Bak in saxony whose name I forget and blow the EU rules. Result - peace of a kind.

Dell's Factory Sales: End of an Era

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 09:27:54 -0400

Hon Hai / Flexconn are building a global size mega plant at Bac Ninh mega site (40km north of Hanoi) in Vietnam to rival the current Longhua plant in in Shenzhen. They also have plans for more Chinese plants in Wuhan (central China) and Huaian (430km from Shanghai), whch are also expected to be larger than the Longhua facilities (based on land area).

The US Jabil Corporation (US) who manufacture circuit boards for Cisco Systems Inc, Hewlett-Packard Company, IBM, Marconi Communication plc, Network Appliance, NEC Corporation, Nokia Corporation, Quantum Corporation, Royal Philips Electronics and Valeo S.A., and Intel are both developing major plants in the Saigon Hi-Tech Park .

There will be little enthusiasm for Dell's 2nd hand plants.

Boeing Threatens to Pull Out of $35 Billion Air Force Competition

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:54:32 -0400

Meanwhile what is the news on the 787 Dreamliner ? What is the news on the upcoming wages settlement ?

Boeing are juggling with several balls and the tanker may just be a straw that breaks their back - perhaps forces within the company are suggesting a pull back and then finding some agreeable joint manufacturing deal on the booms etc., ?

Once they get the 787 fix and resolve the weight problems on the stretched versions they have to get those planes out the door, lickety split before cancellations / conversions accumulate.

The tempo of aerial bombing in Iraq and especially Afghanistan has stepped up enormously in the last month and places major reliance on French NATO assistance.

There are major problems with the 42 year old Tri-stars and VC-10's of the RAF and the Air Force need a fix on those KC-135's - PDQ.

Recent changes in the top command may have resulted in a more "robust" attitude to replacement.

Compressed Natural Gas: Key to American Energy Independence?

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:37:55 -0400

Ooooops! Boot = Trunk

Compressed Natural Gas: Key to American Energy Independence?

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:36:36 -0400

In the UK LNG (we call it LPG) has been available for many years, but not on original vehicles, so there is a cost of conversion around £2,000 - say US$4,000. They are also, all dual fuel, as they need to start on petrol. Any saving in running costs is lost by the inability to sell the used vehicle - second hand values are seriously low - if a buyer can be found... and you lose the boot space for the gas tank.

A recent June 2008 article here - tinyurl.com/57me9l - provides a background on using UK luxury 2nd hand models to convert and then presumably run into the ground.

Depending on the model you may also find problems with insurance cover.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

Sat, 23 Aug 2008 19:20:55 -0400

Hre at Forthcoming UK Energy Deficit (FCUKED) we have always maintained there are two Peak Oil Points

POP1 - When Peak Oil Happens
POP2 - When folks realise POP 1 is about to happen sometime real soon.

We have reached POP 2.

How GM Plans to Muddle Through

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 11:25:40 -0400

Bitten nails ? Hell yes .. wouldn't yours be if you posted US$15.5 Bn losses in 6 weeks = to er well a few years profits ...

How GM Plans to Muddle Through

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 11:23:47 -0400

GM marketing chief Mark LaNeve sounds like the fat girl, with blotchy skin, bad teeth, bad breath, poor posture, bitten nails and acne.

She's gonna start a diet next week - and hey everyone's overweight right now. Her hair, well yes she's just changed her shampoo, look it's here in her shopping basket.

Teeth ? well they may be green and snaggly but hell she's still got most of 'em. Posture - well that's a problem of her weight which when her diet's sorted.. and her acne will clear up as she's read about a new hybrid treatment.

HER problem? Hell no it's everyone's problem.

Bad breath ? She cain't smell it's bad ? EXACTLY what is your problem ?

GM marketing chief Mark LaNeve , sounds like that guy walking to towards you on the down town used car lot with his hand stretched to shake yours.

"We ran some numbers last week" .. GM are in the hole.

Sad State of Affairs: Wachovia Calls in Goldman to Evaluate Its Loan Portfolio

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 08:14:54 -0400

2 points
1. Tips on Dog Grooming stocks ?

2. Jazz9650 is a smart guy with a very impressive analytic brain ... is he one of the staff that JP Morgan didn't hire with BS ?

3. Most major banks are going to enter their Balance sheets in the Booker Fiction Prize this year, they may not win but they wil be up there in the rankings.

Beware of the Allure of Ethanol Investing

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 12:05:36 -0400

You were not alone in scepticism about Verasun's IPO
tinyurl.com/6r5cw2

On first days trading the shares soared to US$30 a rise of 30%.

"This puts a value on the company of 200 times its annualized earnings from the March quarter 2006. Compare that with (say) 50 for Google.

Ethanol either from corn, sugar or so called biomass, is expensive, it has less calorific value than regular gas and is simply another method of keeping Iowa / Indy Congressmen and their constituents (briefly) happy.

Ethanol has been a hucksters paradise.

The best way to invest in ethanol is to buy a bottle of Wild Turkey.

NYT Smears David Einhorn, Again

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 09:43:18 -0400

The asset values can be argued about, but take a look at rcent major investments .. Archstone Smith .. Sun Cal that turned sour from the day they completed.

Probably they have made many a trip to the discount window since Erin said after Q1 results that they would of course be visiting it.

Too many and now they are toxic.

Mr Einhorn and his investors are on a one way bet and will soon collect.

Dollar/Krone Relationship A Sign Of Peak Oil?

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 09:13:22 -0400

"Could this be a soft signal that oil is now starting to reach the peak of its bubble? " You ask.

No.

Lessons from Lehman and Einhorn

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:24:53 -0400

The trajectory of the ordure hitting the airconditioning is becoming increasingly predictable - the Bonfire of the Vanities is upon us.

It is difficutlt to decide which is more unpleasant, the smug Einhorn lifting up the stones or the sassy and pretty Erin Callan orchestrating what looks like a leak fest ,to conceal ,rather than reveal ,what is underneath.

The more one examines some of the more recent "investments", SunCal , Archstone Smith .. followed by their subsequent swift loss in asset value , the more one has to question not the current asset values (which are scary enough) but the quality of management that plunged into them so recently.

Without a rapid and convincing tabulated and detailed eplanation of current assets and valuations it is difficult to see that Lehman Brothers will not suffer the fate of BS.

The worry is , that such a fit of transparency might precipitate such an ending ... but a little bit quicker.