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marpha

marpha
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  • Vringo's Shareholder Update And What Investors Need To Know About Patent Reform And This Patent Hero [View article]
    Unless management said specifically that they are not going to do a secondary offering I would not try to read between the lines.
    Feb 14 07:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    @financemc

    That's interesting. I looked at the thresholds list and I don't see VRNG on there for 1/28 through today. Where did you see a SHO notice?
    Feb 4 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    and, it looks like we are going to get a gap fill much earlier than i expected!
    Jan 30 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    The other way to look at is, if most of the shorts are MMs and they can legally short naked, they don't care at all. they can perfectly hedge risk because within a range they can average up at every high and can easily overwhelm buying volume to bring the price back down. need to cover lower? pound it down. Add in the extra insurance of holding the lion's share of the warrants, and being a VRNG market maker is easy. and, that's the point. otherwise, this thing would still be a penny stock. alan b. was right to call $5 on RR judgment--that's the way the capital structure is set up--to support value creation and price stability at certain ranges and by de-risking and incentivizing market making up to the threshhold where institutions can begin to step in. it's not coincidence that the last traunch of warrants is priced just above $5.

    fun stuff. and as far as VRNG is concerned, this is early innings. there will be another change to load up for long term holds.
    Jan 30 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    I'm under the impression that NASDAQ reports market maker shorts in their short report (monthly, daily, real-time). Anyone know if this is correct? Regardless, I just assume most of the price action is market making. There's just not enough institutional or retail interest in this issue to make it behave "normally." Fact is, without market makers there wouldn't be a functional market in VRNG. Focusing on the open short interest numbers and talking about short squeezes is totally nuts, fantasy stuff. Find the market makers' average range and trade around that and the news cycle. If you believe in the stock long term, trade intelligently to accumulate. If you don't, trade intelligently to scale out. All this crazy fundamental talk is just that--crazy!
    Jan 30 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Lol. There goes the rationale for having a Moto X!
    Jan 29 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    and, really, who cares? the story here is as good as ever. you're either trading VRNG or you're holding it. if you're trading it, my perspective is: don't hold out for a quick swing up to $8 or whatever the short-term fantasy is, absent another catalyst separate from yesterday's announcement, and further, absent a catalyst that actually involves cash in VRNG's bank accounts.

    personally, i traded around this present news and i am continue to happily hold long with a long term perspective.
    Jan 29 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    i don't think a secondary offering is a rumor. it's the application of logic to the situation at hand. for that reason, it might be appropriate to call it speculation. relative to MSFT, i believe the agreement is 5% of whatever GOOG pays. emphasis on *payment* rather than judgment. even if it was "judgment" rather than "payment" (which it could be, i can't recall), i would imagine the agreement would specify *final* judgment, pending appeals. so, i would not count on cash flow from MSFT. but then again, i am speculating.
    Jan 29 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    What would the proceeds be from exercise of all the warrants under $5.15? Rough guess, maybe $20m? That would give the company a bit of a buffer. But a secondary makes sense after that is done.
    Jan 29 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Re: warrants. They are largely held by the market makers in order to stabilize the price. The previous price range over the past two years centered around the average of all outstanding warrants. With the recent ruling, one would expect the market makers to cover their shorts by exercising the lower strike warrants and for the price to stabilize higher. One might expect $5.15?
    Remember the last secondary offering when everyone thought it was crazy that management would issue new stock at $3.25? We're you surprised that it was just a little bit higher than the average price of all the warrants? Would you be surprised if VRNG issued more stock in the near future at $5.25?
    Don't hold your breath for a wave of short covering. This isn't AAPL. It's a former penny stock with no cash flow and a highly structured and professionally managed float.

    I'm certainly a happy camper today, and will continue to hold long. I like the long term story here.
    Jan 29 12:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Agree with that. The strike price of the most recent warrants should also help peg the price right around where we are now until the company has fundamentals (i.e., actual cash flow). Market makers have to do their job.
    Jan 29 10:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    I still say the majority of the short float is warrant holders. As a result, we'll see warrants exercised to cover shorts. I don't see massive short covering. I think it will be orderly due to the very structured nature of the overall cap table. And, I'll make a prediction. Barring a buy out announcement (which would fix the value per share), we will see the open today again in the coming weeks. I'd go so far as to we will close the gap at some point, but I don't think that's going to happen unless we do have a new offering.
    Jan 29 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Lol. That is one idea.
    Jan 29 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Anybody care to offer an analysis of what happens to an IP play with no cash flow in the 60 days after the announcement of a large favorable judgment subject to appeal?
    Jan 29 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    All good here. :-)
    Jan 29 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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