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A Fraser

A Fraser
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  • Thoughts On Yahoo (And Alibaba) [View article]
    The only reason YHOO is down is because of investors hedging long BABA positions with short YHOO positions. Otherwise, YHOO SOP value puts it over $55 per share. The possible tax issue does NOT affect already submitted applications which includes the BABA shares spinco, but could affect a yahoo japan spinco. I don't know why anyone would sell based on a comment by an IRS employee that has no affect on the spinco.
    May 20, 2015. 02:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Never Been An Opportunity Like Yahoo Right Now [View article]
    I think you have to take another valuation step. What is the breakup value of YHOO if it sold off its assets (or someone else did)? I think we are looking at an easy $20B plus the cash of $7B. The traffic is worth more than what it is currently generating in profit, which is to say, YHOO needs a serious cost cutting plan. New ownership would have no problem cutting costs.
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo exploring Yahoo Japan stake options; shares now +1.5% [View news story]
    I had no doubt that the early drop in after hours would be short lived. I just didn't know it would be in the same after hours session. $7B in cash, plus the YAHOY spinout, and good news from mobile? That's a good report. If you just sold the pieces of YHOO at a fire sale it would be worth $60 a share or more.
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo misses by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    No major negative news, that is always good. Last quarter, even the spinoff news didn't retain its value as everything was dependent on BABA. So, short dip, not to 40, but rebounds right after.
    Apr 21, 2015. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ecommerce Giants Alibaba, JD May Sag On Any News [View article]
    Is it just me, or do most people not seem to understand that BABA's sales are not directly affected when news about fake products come up? BABA makes its money and traffic and ad fees, not product sales! BABA doesn't sell anything, let alone fake products.

    Also being the low cost provider gives BABA a HUGE advantage that it can leverage into other markets. Imagine if ebay or AMZN sellers could sell their products without having to pay 10-15% to EBAY or AMZN. Do you think they would switch to BABA? Of course!
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: IPO Lockup Expiration [View article]
    Isn't this already built into the price? I mean it is soooo obvious. If you have BABA and want to eliminate risk and still hold BABA, can't you just short YHOO? I mean, that would be the better play then sell and try to rebuy. You lose all potential LT tax breaks and get caught with the wash sale rule.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba: IPO Lockup Expiration [View article]
    This stock has moved opposite of expectations many times, maybe that is the way to go. Everyone thinks this stock should go down during lockup expiration. I would not be surprised to see this stock move up over $100 by April earnings.
    Mar 5, 2015. 02:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Playing Wait-And-See [View article]
    If Starboard is out of AOL, you can eliminate the possibility of the YHOO AOL merger. It was always a bad idea, but now there is no catalyst for it. YHOO can still be very profitable, if it cuts more costs, which it has started to do. It is a way better company than most of the other recently IPO'd tech companies that have high valuations but no profits. Eventually, that will get factored into the price.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba falls to new post-IPO lows, takes Yahoo down with it [View news story]
    What is really the big concern about the fake transactions? It has zero effect on BABA's sales. I mean it is unsavory, but BABA is at least making a show of cracking down on the practice. BABA makes its money from advertising. If the traffic is legitimate, then it doesn't matter so much what the sellers are selling, does it? I know there are many fake items available on ebay and AMZN, so really, if you compare apples to apples, BABA still is a better play. That said, this news will probably put temporary downward pressure on BABA that will be reversed as soon as the hysteria subsides, probably at next earnings. If I could buy more BABA, I would.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Q4 highlights: 53% ad growth, 1.39B MAUs [View news story]
    FB doesn't hire the best of the best. They only hire people that are like the people at FB, meaning very competitive vs collaborative. Its probably good for a while, but if there is another growing company, this type of personnel will jump ship quickly. That said, I'm long FB too, since $25.
    Jan 28, 2015. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Responds To Audit, Gets New Owners [View article]
    If one actually follows this stock, then he/she doesn't accidentally get this number wrong.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Responds To Audit, Gets New Owners [View article]
    Bingo, get the bad news out of the way before you render it moot with an earnings beat.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo plans tax-free spinoff of Alibaba stake; shares +6.4% [View news story]
    I'd like to know why the share price is still so low. What is artificially keeping it low? It does not make sense just based on cash + assets + conservative value of cash flow. Anyway, I don't see any reason to sell below $70 now.
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo-Alibaba Dance Set For New Phase? [View article]
    Baba doesn't want 15 million shares dumped into the market in Sept. There will be some deal done with yhoo.
    Jan 27, 2015. 03:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Helpful Post-Mortem On Seadrill [View article]
    So is SDRL still a short at this point ? Seems like it to me. Not sure which is in worse shale, offshore energy, shale or fracking producers, or solar stocks. I've been shorting solar to good effect. If $40 oil is truly in the cards a lot of this leveraged companies will have to sell or go bankrupt.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment